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Wibowo, Rulianda Purnomo
Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Journal : Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora

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Socioeconomic Dimensions of Food Price Fluctuations and Regional Inflation in Indonesia: Insights from Java and Sumatra Siregar, Wirda Zahra; Wibowo, Rulianda Purnomo; Siahaan, Elisabet
Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora Vol 3 No 2 (2026): January 2026 (On Process)
Publisher : Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/baileofisipvol3iss2pp332-352

Abstract

This study investigates the socioeconomic dynamics of food price volatility and its asymmetric impacts on regional inflation across Java and Sumatra, Indonesia’s two most economically influential islands. The research aims to analyze the short- and long-term effects of food commodity price fluctuations on regional inflation, compare the structure and magnitude of price transmission mechanisms between the two regions, and identify key commodities that drive inflation disparities. Using a quantitative explanatory approach integrated with sociological interpretation, monthly time-series data from 2020 to 2024 across six provinces are analyzed through ADF stationarity tests, VAR/VECM models, Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition, complemented by sociological indicators such as logistics index, GRDP per capita, and household food expenditure ratio. The findings show that short-term inflationary pressures stem mainly from price shocks in red chili, shallots, and cooking oil, while long-term persistence is driven by dependence on rice, beef, and chili. Inflation in Java is largely demand-driven, whereas Sumatra’s inflation reflects supply-side constraints and weak market integration. The study’s novelty lies in combining macroeconomic modeling with regional sociological analysis, offering a socioeconomic inflation dynamics framework that reframes inflation as a socially embedded process. The research advances economic sociology by linking inflation behavior with social structure, regional inequality, and policy responsiveness.
Co-Authors Andri Suryadi Prasetya Ar Raihan Suti Nasution Atika Hidayati Batubara, Mhd. Zulfadli Beby Karina Fawzeea Sembiring Binaria Sinaga Christine Caroline Pangaribuan Diah Ramadhani Sigalingging Dwi Rachmina Elfira Rahmadani Emalisa Emalisa Endang Rizkinawaty Sembiring Feryanto Harsanto, Willy Aria Hasman Hasyim Hasugian, Hardy Henny Crosita Limbong Herawati Indrawati, Titien Indriyanti, Tietin Intan, Seli Venny Irawan, Muhammad Ari Isfenti Sadalia isfenti sadalia Kellin Tarigan Kesuma, Sinar I Indra Lovina Ginting Lusi Laura Pasaribu Mahdi Maimuddin Noor Malau, Leo Rio Ependi Meilita Tryana Sembiring, Meilita Tryana Meutia, Anna Muhammad Jufri Muhammad Khaliqi N. Nazaruddin Natalie Jessica Regina Surbakti Nazaruddin M Novianti, tan Pebriyani, Dian Rahmanta Rahmanta Ginting Rahmanta Rahmanta, Rahmanta ram, kh Rini, Endang Sulystia Rosadi, Arief Fareza Safrizal Safrizal Salmiah Salmiah Sari Br Surbakti, Dian Permata Satia Negara Lubis Satia Negara Lubis Siahaan, Elisabet Simanjuntak, Chrismasya Rosiana Tamara Sinar Indra Kesuma Siregar, Qurratu Ayuni Siregar, Wirda Zahra Siti Nur Arafah Sri Fajar Ayu Sugih Harto Pujangkoro Surbakti, Natalie Jessica Regina Suri, Tasha Ningtyas Surya Sevi Wijayanna Tobing Syahfitri, Khofifah Dwi Tavi Supriana Tavi Supriana Thomson Sebayang yeni absah Zednita Azriani