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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering Majalah Ilmiah Ekonomi Komputer TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Jurnal Algoritma JURNAL ISTEK JOIN (Jurnal Online Informatika) Al-Fikri: Jurnal Studi dan Penelitian Pendidikan Islam Jurnal Pendidikan UNIGA Jurnal Publik : Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Administrasi Negara Atthulab: Islamic Religion Teaching and Learning Journal JISKa (Jurnal Informatika Sunan Kalijaga) Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science JIIP (Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pendidikan) Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Journal of Applied Data Sciences Edukasi: Journal of Educational Research Jurnal Algoritma Jurnal Lemhannas RI
Muhammad Ali Ramdhani
UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung
Religion Arts Humanities Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Feature Engineering for Tropical Rainfall Forecasting Using Random Forest and Support Vector Regression Cepy Slamet; Rizka M Imron; Agung Wahana; Dian Sa'adillah Maylawati; Wildan Budiawan Zulfikar; Muhammad Ali Ramdhani
Journal of Applied Data Sciences Vol 7, No 1: January 2026
Publisher : Bright Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/jads.v7i1.1111

Abstract

The complex dynamics of weather variability in Indonesia, influenced by multiple climatic drivers, make rainfall forecasting in tropical regions a significant scientific challenge. This study proposes an automated feature engineering pipeline to enhance the performance of Random Forest Regression (RFR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) models for tropical rainfall prediction. Monthly rainfall data spanning 388 months (1993–2025) from a BMKG station were used as the basis for model development. The pipeline systematically generates temporal, seasonal, statistical, and anomaly-based features to provide domain-informed representations for non-sequential learning algorithms. Model performance was evaluated under four temporal data partitioning scenarios using R², RMSE, and probabilistic confidence intervals derived from bootstrap residual simulations. Results indicate that RFR achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R² = 0.93; RMSE = 31.01 mm) and demonstrated superior temporal–seasonal stability (Rolling CV: R² = 0.81 ± 0.07; RMSE = 55.44 ± 16.18), with comparable performance between wet and dry seasons. Conversely, SVR showed greater sensitivity to seasonal variability, with R² dropping to 0.55 during the wet season, indicating higher uncertainty under extreme rainfall conditions. Robustness and drift analyses further revealed that RFR adapts better to temporal and seasonal shifts, while SVR remains relevant as an adaptive model for extreme risk analysis. Overall, this study contributes to the development of automated feature engineering, reproducible climatological forecasting pipelines, and probabilistic modeling frameworks for rainfall prediction under uncertainty in tropical regions.
Co-Authors Abdullah Ramdhani Abdurahman, Ade Mohamad Abdusy Syakur Amin Adam Faroqi Adang Hambali, Adang Adi Putra Andriyandi Agung Wahana Ahmad Fathonih, Ahmad Azwar Tsabit Barzan Faizin Bebeh Wahid Nuryadin Cepy Slamet Cepy Slamet Dian Sa'adillah Maylawati Diena Rauda Ramdania Dzulkifli, Muhamad Arham Enjang AS, Enjang Fauzi, Rai Ahmad Fitri, Susanti Ainul Hamdan Sugilar Hasan Basri Hilmi Aulawi Irfan Safrudin Kamil, Muhammad Ihsan Kasmin, Fauziah Kumar, Yogan Jaya lia kamelia Maman, Maman Maylawati, Dian Sa'adillah Muhamad Fahmi Amrillah MUHAMMAD RIZAL Muharam, Aldi Fahluzi Nina Nurmila Nuraeni, Eneng Nurhalizah, Teti Rahman, Aedah binti Abdul Rahman, Titik Khawa Abdul Rakhman, Deny Fauzy Rifa'i, Akhmad Ridlo Rinaldy Maulidiansyah Rinda Cahyana Rizka M Imron Rizqullah, Naufal Rochman, Chaerul Rohmat Mulyana Sapdi Septya Egho Pratama Syafi’i, Syafi’i Teddy Mantoro Tedi Priatna Teti Nurhalizah Umana, Muhammad Khalifa Wahyudin Darmalaksana Wildan Budiawan Zulfikar Yana Aditia Gerhana, Yana Aditia Yosep Bustomi