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Performance Evaluation of ARDL Model Stacked with Boosted Ridge Regression on Time Series Data with Multicollinearity: Evaluasi Kinerja Estimasi Model ARDL stacked with Boosted Ridge Regression pada Data Deret Waktu dengan Multikolinearitas Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Farit Mochamad Afendi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 9 No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v9i1p136-144

Abstract

Time series data plays a vital role in financial and economic study. Two commonly applied models for such data are Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Nonetheless, interdependence among explanatory variables often leads to multicollinearity, posing challenges for model reliability. This study investigates the effectiveness of the ARDL model integrated with boosted ridge regression as a method to mitigate multicollinearity. Due to limitations in available empirical data, simulation data will be generated to support the analysis. The research consists of two stages: synthetic data generation and analysis on simulated data. Results suggest that ARDL performs well under various multicollinearity conditions, particularly when the training set is sufficiently large and model structure is correctly specified. For smaller training sets, the ARDL Ridge variant demonstrates improved predictive performance.
Siamese Model-Based Face Verification Using CNN and MobileNetV2 Abd Rahman; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Erfiani
Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol 10 No 2 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Ikatan Ahli Informatika Indonesia (IAII)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29207/resti.v10i2.6996

Abstract

Face verification plays an important role in computer vision, especially in mobile and embedded systems with limited computational capacity. This study proposes a face verification system based on the Siamese Neural Network (SNN) architecture by integrating six embedding models. These models consist of a standard CNN, an L2-normalized CNN, a baseline MobileNetV2, a structurally adjusted MobileNetV2, a pre-trained MobileNetV2, and a fine-tuned MobileNetV2. The dataset includes facial images captured from three webcams and additional samples obtained from the Labeled Faces in the Wild and ImageNet datasets. The experimental procedure includes image preprocessing, construction of balanced positive and negative image pairs, model training, and evaluation using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC. The results show that the pre-trained MobileNetV2 and the standard CNN achieve the highest verification accuracy, reaching 100 percent and 99.998 percent, respectively. Among all models, the structurally adjusted MobileNetV2 presents the best trade-off by combining high accuracy, computational efficiency, and training stability while successfully avoiding overfitting. The real-time implementation involves only the structurally adjusted MobileNetV2 model due to its lightweight structure and consistent performance. This model produces low embedding distances, low latency, and high throughput during CPU-based inference. The performance outperforms GPU execution in one-by-one image processing. The proposed system offers a practical and efficient face verification solution for deployment in identity authentication applications on resource-constrained platforms. These findings support the development of scalable and adaptive biometric security systems that rely on deep learning.
Deteksi Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) Berbasis Machine Learning: Kombinasi SMOTE, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, dan Bayesian Optimization Naufalia Alfiryal; Kusman Sadik; Cici Suhaeni; Agus Mohamad Soleh
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 8, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v8i2.109931

Abstract

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) merupakan gangguan endokrin yang umum terjadi pada wanita usia reproduktif. Kondisi ini dapat menyebabkan gangguan ovulasi, ketidakseimbangan hormon, resistensi insulin, serta meningkatkan risiko penyakit kardiovaskular, obesitas, dan gangguan psikologis. Meskipun prevalensinya cukup tinggi, sekitar 75% kasus PCOS masih belum terdiagnosis dalam praktik klinis akibat kompleksitas gejala dan keterbatasan metode diagnosis yang digunakan saat ini. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut, penelitian ini mengusulkan pendekatan berbasis machine learning guna meningkatkan akurasi dan efisiensi deteksi PCOS. Penelitian ini membandingkan performa dua algoritma pembelajaran terawasi, yaitu random forest dan gradient boosting, dalam melakukan prediksi PCOS. Dataset yang digunakan diperoleh dari repositori publik dan memuat berbagai fitur klinis yang berkaitan dengan PCOS. Untuk menangani permasalahan ketidakseimbangan kelas, metode synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) diterapkan pada data pelatihan. Selain itu, bayesian optimization digunakan untuk melakukan penyetelan hiperparameter pada masing-masing model agar diperoleh performa yang optimal. Evaluasi performa model dilakukan menggunakan beberapa metrik, dengan area under the curve–receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) sebagai metrik utama. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model Gradient Boosting memberikan performa terbaik dengan nilai AUC sebesar 0,8983 dan nilai recall sebesar 0,95, yang mengindikasikan sensitivitas tinggi dalam mengidentifikasi kasus PCOS. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi SMOTE dan bayesian optimization efektif dalam meningkatkan akurasi prediksi, khususnya pada dataset medis yang tidak seimbang. Pendekatan yang diusulkan memiliki potensi untuk diintegrasikan ke dalam sistem pendukung keputusan klinis guna mendukung proses skrining PCOS yang lebih dini dan andal.Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder among reproductive-aged women. This condition can lead to ovulatory dysfunction, hormonal imbalance, insulin resistance, and an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and psychological disorders. Despite its high prevalence, approximately 75% of PCOS cases remain undiagnosed in clinical settings due to the complexity of symptoms and limitations of current diagnostic methods. To address this issue, a machine learning-based approach is proposed to improve the accuracy and efficiency of PCOS detection. This study compares the performance of two supervised learning algorithms random forest and gradient boosting for PCOS prediction. The dataset used was obtained from a public repository and contains various clinical features associated with PCOS. To address the class imbalance problem, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) was applied to the training data. Additionally, bayesian optimization was employed to fine-tune the hyperparameters of each model for optimal performance. Model performance was evaluated using several metrics, with the area under the curve–receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) as the primary measure. The Gradient Boosting model achieved the best results, with an AUC of 0.8983 and a recall of 0.95, indicating high sensitivity in identifying positive PCOS cases. These findings demonstrate that the combination of SMOTE and Bayesian Optimization is effective in enhancing predictive accuracy, especially in imbalanced medical datasets. The proposed approach shows promise for integration into clinical decision-support systems to facilitate earlier and more reliable PCOS screening.Kata Kunci: Bayesian optimization; gradient boosting; PCOS; random forest; SMOTE.Keywords : Bayesian optimization; gradient boosting; PCOS; random forest; SMOTE.
Bayesian Neural Network untuk Prediksi Diabetes: Uncertainty Quantification dalam Machine Learning Sabrina Adnin Kamila; Kusman Sadik; Cici Suhaeni; Agus Mohamad Soleh
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 9, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v9i1.103994

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi dan membandingkan kinerja tiga model machine learning, yaitu random forest (RF), feedforward neural network (FNN), dan bayesian neural network (BNN), dalam klasifikasi diabetes menggunakan Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset dari UCI Machine Learning Repository yang memiliki ketidakseimbangan kelas. Prapemrosesan data meliputi normalisasi fitur menggunakan StandardScaler dan penanganan ketidakseimbangan kelas dengan synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). Evaluasi model dilakukan menggunakan metrik akurasi dan skor F1, yang didukung oleh classification report dan confusion matrix. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa RF menghasilkan akurasi tinggi (0,8493) namun skor F1 yang rendah (0,3386), yang mengindikasikan rendahnya sensitivitas model terhadap kasus positif diabetes. FNN memberikan performa yang lebih seimbang dengan skor F1 sebesar 0,4490 setelah penyesuaian threshold optimal. Sementara itu, BNN mencapai akurasi 0,8498 dan skor F1 sebesar 0,4043, serta memiliki keunggulan tambahan berupa kemampuan mengukur ketidakpastian prediksi melalui pendekatan Monte Carlo Dropout. Dengan demikian, FNN lebih unggul dalam keseimbangan klasifikasi, sementara BNN lebih relevan untuk aplikasi medis yang membutuhkan informasi tingkat kepercayaan prediksi guna mendukung pengambilan keputusan klinis yang lebih andal.This study aims to evaluate and compare the performance of three machine learning models, namely random forest (RF), feedforward neural network (FNN), and bayesian neural network (BNN), for diabetes classification using the Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository, which exhibits significant class imbalance. Data preprocessing includes feature normalization using StandardScaler and class imbalance handling through synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). Model performance is evaluated using accuracy and F1-score metrics, supported by classification report and confusion matrix analysis. The results show that RF achieves high accuracy (0.8493) but a low F1-score (0.3386), indicating poor sensitivity to positive diabetes cases. FNN provides more balanced performance with an F1-score of 0.4490 after optimal threshold adjustment. Meanwhile, BNN achieves an accuracy of 0.8498 and F1-score of 0.4043, while offering the additional advantage of uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo Dropout. Therefore, FNN is more effective for balanced classification performance, while BNN is more suitable for medical applications that require prediction confidence information to support more reliable and informed clinical decision-making.Kata Kunci: Prediksi diabetes, kuantifikasi ketidakpastian, bayesian neural network, classification imbalance, machine learning.Keywords: Diabetes prediction, uncertainty quantification, bayesian neural network, classification imbalance, machine learning.
OPTIMIZING LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPPING IN CENTRAL SULAWESI WITH RECURSIVE FEATURE ELIMINATION AND RANDOM FOREST ALGORITHM Indra Rivaldi Siregar; Anik Djuraidah; Agus Mohamad Soleh
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp1019-1034

Abstract

Landslides are among the most destructive natural hazards, causing severe casualties, economic losses, and environmental degradation. Central Sulawesi, characterized by active tectonics such as the Palu-Koro fault, is highly susceptible to landslides, as tragically demonstrated in 2018. Therefore, developing accurate landslide susceptibility maps is essential to support comprehensive landslide mitigation efforts in this region. While machine learning, particularly Random Forest (RF), has proven highly effective for landslide modeling, previous studies around Palu have often overlooked model simplification through feature selection and hyperparameter optimization. This study proposes an integrated approach combining RF with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to reduce model complexity and enhance predictive accuracy. This research utilizes 498 landslide events with fifteen conditions, including topography, environment, geology, and anthropogenic influences. The RFE-RF model achieves superior classification performance, with accuracy, balanced accuracy, and F1-scores exceeding 0.81, outperforming the RF without RFE and Logistic Regression baselines. These findings underscore the urgent need to integrate feature selection methods such as RFE into landslide modeling frameworks to improve predictive accuracy. High accuracy enables government authorities and stakeholders to develop more targeted and effective mitigation priorities. Spatial analysis indicates that Donggala, Palu, and Sigi are the most critical areas requiring prioritized mitigation, with over 9% of their territories classified as highly susceptible. Feature importance analysis reveals that elevation, slope, and land cover are the most influential factors. This study suggests that mitigation efforts should focus on the hills and mountainous areas on both sides of the Palu Valley, with recommended strategies emphasizing land cover management practices, such as reforestation, to enhance slope stability and reduce landslide risk.
MIXED-EFFECTS MODELS WITH GENERALIZED RANDOM FOREST: IMPROVED FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS Herlin Fransiska; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Erfiani Erfiani
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss2pp1111-1124

Abstract

Food insecurity is a complex issue that requires a deep understanding of its influencing factors. Accurate predictions are crucial for effective interventions. Machine learning is well-suited to the large and complex data available in the big data era. However, machine learning generally does not accommodate hierarchical or clustered data structures, making them challenging for machine learning modeling. One model that accommodates hierarchical data structures is the mixed-effects model. This study introduces a novel approach to predict food insecurity by integrating mixed-effects models and a generalized random forest. Mixed-effects models capture variations in hierarchical or clustered data, such as differences between regions, and the generalized random forest, as extended and developed from the traditional random forest, is integrated to model fixed effects and improve prediction accuracy. The empirical data used were the food insecurity data from 2021 in West Java, Indonesia. The results show that mixed-effects models with a generalized random forest significantly improve the prediction accuracy compared to other models. The average performance measure shows GMEGRF is a good model and has a balanced accuracy value of 0.6789709, which is the highest result compared to other methods. This methodological advancement offers a new robust model for understanding and potentially mitigating food insecurity, ultimately informing efforts towards SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
Manifold Learning and Undersampling Approaches for Imbalanced Class Sentiment Classification Jumansyah, L.M. Risman Dwi; Soleh, Agus Mohamad; Syafitri, Utami Dyah
Knowledge Engineering and Data Science
Publisher : citeus

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Movie reviews are crucial in determining a film's success by influencing audience decisions. Automating sentiment classification is essential for efficient public opinion analysis. However, it faces challenges such as high-dimensional data and imbalanced class distributions. This study addresses these issues by applying manifold learning techniques, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Laplacian Eigenmaps (LE) to reduce data complexity and undersampling strategies (Random Undersampling (RUS) and EasyEnsemble) to balance data and improve predictions for both sentiment classes. On reviews of The Raid 2: Berandal, EasyEnsemble achieved the highest average G-Mean of 0.694 using Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF IDF) features with a linear kernel without dimensionality reduction. RUS provided balanced but inconsistent results, while Review of Systems (ROS) combined with PCA (85% variance cumulative) improved predictions for negative reviews. Laplacian Eigenmaps were effective for negative reviews with 500 dimensions but less accurate for positive ones. This study highlights EasyEnsemble's superior performance in addressing the class imbalance, though optimization with manifold learning remains challenging.
DETECTION OF ADULTERATION IN COCONUT MILK USING CUCKOO SEARCH-OPTIMIZED XGBOOST ON HIGH-DIMENSIONAL FTIR SPECTRAL DATA I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra; Kusman Sadik; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Cici Suhaeni
JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) Vol 10, No 3 (2025)
Publisher : STKIP PGRI Tulungagung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29100/jipi.v10i3.8376

Abstract

Coconut milk adulteration is an important issue because it can reduce food quality and endanger consumers. This study aims to develop a rapid and accurate detection method for coconut milk adulteration using a combination of FTIR spectroscopy technology and the XGBoost machine learning algorithm optimized with the Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSA). FTIR spectral data from traditional and instant coconut milk samples were analyzed using Standard Normal Variate (SNV) and Savitzky-Golay (SG) preprocessing to reduce noise and clarify spectral features. The XGBoost model was then optimized through CSA with hyperparameter tuning. The results showed that the combination of SNV+SG preprocessing increased the model accuracy by 84.44%, with a precision of 92.73% and an F1-score of 79.94%. In addition, CSA optimization provided a 19.7% increase in accuracy compared to the model without tuning. These findings prove the effectiveness of the CSA-XGBoost approach in analyzing high-dimensional spectral data and is a potential solution in efficiently detecting the authenticity of coconut milk. In conclusion, this approach has the potential to be widely applied to test the authenticity of other food products quickly, non-destructively and accurately.
Headline-Based Indonesian Political Misinformation Classification: A Comparative Study of Naive Bayes, SVM, CNN, and IndoBERT Models Ade Ariyo Yudanto; Naila Nabiha Qonita; Nur Aulia Maknunah; Inria Purwaningsih; Septian Rahardiantoro; Agus Mohamad Soleh
Journal of Applied Informatics and Computing Vol. 10 No. 4 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Negeri Batam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30871/jaic.v10i4.13325

Abstract

Political misinformation spreads rapidly through digital media, making early detection increasingly important. This study evaluates headline-based Indonesian political misinformation classification using Naive Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and IndoBERT. Headlines were selected because they represent the first information encountered by readers and enable rapid screening, although they may not fully represent the article content. The dataset consists of 5,132 Indonesian political news headlines collected from TurnBackHoax and DetikNews Politics. Leakage-aware preprocessing was applied to reduce explicit source-related cues before model training. Experimental results show that IndoBERT achieved the best performance with an accuracy of 90.25% and a Macro F1-score of 90.24%, outperforming the other evaluated models. Additional analyses, including McNemar statistical significance testing, computational cost comparison, and error analysis, showed that although IndoBERT achieved the highest predictive performance, its improvement over the other evaluated models was not statistically significant. Error analysis further revealed that several misclassification cases involved stylistic overlaps between misinformation and factual headlines, suggesting the possibility of residual source-style dependency and shortcut learning. Therefore, the proposed models should be interpreted as learning linguistic patterns associated with the constructed headline dataset rather than performing direct factual verification of news claims.
Performance Comparison of Random Forest and XGBoost Optimized with Cuckoo Search Algorithm for Coconut Milk Adulteration Detection Using FTIR Spectroscopy Sentana Putra I Gusti Ngurah; Kusman Sadik; Agus Mohamad Soleh; Cici Suhaeni
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.7817

Abstract

Coconut milk has emerged as a strategic food commodity in the global tropical region, with market demand growing at 7.2% per annum since 2021. This increasing demand has led to sophisticated adulteration practices, including dilution with water. Such adulteration not only reduces the nutritional value but also poses serious health risks, including food poisoning and allergic reactions. This study developed an innovative detection method combining Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy with a sophisticated machine learning algorithm. We analyzed 719 coconut milk samples (wavelength range 2500-4000 nm) consisting of traditional market products and instant commercial products. This study aims to develop an FTIR-based coconut milk adulteration detection model by optimizing RF and XGBoost parameters using CSA and evaluating the comparative performance of the two models in identifying different types of adulterants. The spectral data underwent rigorous preprocessing using a combination of Standard Normal Variate (SNV) and Savitzky-Golay (SG) techniques to overcome the effects of noise and light scattering, which significantly improved feature extraction. The results show that CSA-optimized XGBoost achieves superior performance with 92% accuracy and 91% F1 score, outperforming Random Forest in all evaluation metrics. The model shows particular strength in precision (98%), indicating its outstanding ability to minimize false positives in adulteration detection. Stability tests through 30 experimental repetitions reveal that the combination of XGBoost+CSA maintains consistent performance with minimal variance, confirming its reliability for industrial applications. Comparative analysis shows that the combination of SNV+SG preprocessing improves the accuracy of the baseline model by 9-12%, while CSA optimization provides an additional performance improvement of 10-15%. This research makes significant contributions to food science and safety. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of CSA in optimizing spectroscopic models, achieving 19.5% higher precision. The combination of SNV+SG preprocessing improves the baseline accuracy by 9-12%, while CSA optimization provides an additional performance improvement of 10-15%. This study not only provides a rapid and non-destructive adulteration detection solution but also proves the effectiveness of the CSA approach in optimizing the spectroscopic model. These findings have important implications for strengthening food safety regulations and developing real-time quality control systems in the coconut milk industry.
Co-Authors Abd Rahman Abialam Koesnandy H Ade Ariyo Yudanto Afendi, Farit M Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Alfa Nugraha Pradana Amir Abduljabbar Dalimunthe Anadra, Rahmi Anang Kurnia Andespa, Reyuli Andriansyah, . Anik Djuraidah Anisa Nurizki Annisarahmi Nur Aini Aldania Ardhani, Rizky Arif Handoyo Marsuhandi Aris Yaman ASEP SAEFUDDIN Astari, Reka Agustia Baehera, Seta Bagus Sartono Belinda, Nadira Sri Budi Susetyo Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Cici Suhaeni Daulay, Nurmai Syaroh Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri Dede Dirgahayu Domiri, Dede Dirgahayu Devi Andrian Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Erfiani Etis Sunandi Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitri Mudia Sari Fitrianto, Anwar Gede Awantara Hari Wijayanto Hasnataeni, Yunia Hengki Muradi Herlin Fransiska I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Made Sumertajaya Indahwati Indra Rivaldi Siregar Inria Purwaningsih Jumansyah, L. M. Risman Dwi Jumansyah, L.M. Risman Dwi Karel Fauzan Hakim Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Kusman Sadik Kusnaeni Kusnaeni, Kusnaeni Latifah K. Darusman Leni Anggraini Susanti Lisa Amelia M. Yunus Meavi Cintani Mohamad Rafi Mubarak, Fadhlul Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Nuruddin Prathama Muradi, Hengki Naila Nabiha Qonita Naufalia Alfiryal Nisrina Az-Zahra, Putri Nur Aulia Maknunah Nurhambali, M Rizky Pika Silvianti Rahardiantoro, Septian Rais Ramadhani, Dini Rizki Manaf, Silmi Anisa Rochman, Nur Sabrina Adnin Kamila Sabrina Adnin Kamila Sachnaz Desta Oktarina Sentana Putra I Gusti Ngurah Seran, Karlina Setyono Siti Arni Wulandya, Siti Arni Siti Hafsah Suhaeni, Cici Tahira Fulazzaky Tarida, Arna Ristiyanti Tyas, Maulida Fajrining Uswatun Hasanah Uswatun Hasanah Utami Dyah Syafitri Yudistira Yudistira Yumna Karimah Zamrah Mutmainah _ Aunuddin