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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering TEKNIK INFORMATIKA Seminar Nasional Aplikasi Teknologi Informasi (SNATI) ELKHA : Jurnal Teknik Elektro Proceedings of KNASTIK TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) JUTI: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Global Strategis Jurnal Teknologi dan Sistem Komputer Jurnal ELTIKOM : Jurnal Teknik Elektro, Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Jurnal Penelitian Politik Jusikom : Jurnal Sistem Komputer Musirawas Conference SENATIK STT Adisutjipto Yogyakarta Jurnal Pertahanan : Media Informasi tentang Kajian dan Strategi Pertahanan yang Mengedepankan Identity, Nasionalism dan Integrity JURNAL TEKNIK INFORMATIKA DAN SISTEM INFORMASI JITTER (Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Terapan) KACANEGARA Jurnal Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Jurnal Mnemonic Abdimas Galuh: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Abdimasku : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Aiti: Jurnal Teknologi Informasi SPEKTA (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat : Teknologi dan Aplikasi) Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Journal of Applied Data Sciences Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara Prosiding Seminar Nasional Sisfotek (Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Informasi) BHAKTI PERSADA Jurnal Aplikasi IPTEKS (Journal of Applied Sciences and Technology) ELPOSYS: Jurnal Sistem Kelistrikan Jurnal Elektrosista Jurnal Informatika Polinema (JIP) Jurnal TNI Angkatan Udara Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Ilmiah Tenaga Listrik.
Arwin Datumaya Wahyudi Sumari
Indonesian Defense University
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Nursing Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : TEKNIK INFORMATIKA

 1 
SISTEM PREDIKSI TINGKAT KRIMINALITAS MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: STUDI KASUS PADA POLRES KABUPATEN PROBOLINGGO Arwin Datumaya Wahyudi Sumari; Ricky Yulian Adi Pratama; Odhitya Desta Triswidrananta
JURNAL TEKNIK INFORMATIKA Vol 13, No 2 (2020): JURNAL TEKNIK INFORMATIKA
Publisher : Department of Informatics, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/jti.v13i2.18128

Abstract

Criminality is all forms of action and conduct that violate the law as well social and religious norms that are detrimental to the society both economically and psychologically. The emergence of verious crime forms with new dimension recently shows that the criminality is always developing. In the effort to reduce the increase of the crime rate, a crime action prediction system is needed to anticipate the future. In this research a crime rate prediction system based in the types of criminal action using Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) method has been developed, and the prediction  accuracy of the system is measured by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method with a case study on Resort Police of Kabupaten Probolinggo, East Jawa. From the conducted test, obtained results MAPE score of  theft by weighting (Curat) type is 7% or Very Accurate prediction criterion. MAPE score for crime action type Others, motor vehicle theft (Curanmor), Destruction, and Fraud are 9.8%, 14.4%, 13.6%, and 16%, or Good prediction criterion. For crime action type Beatings, violent theft (Curas), severe persecution (Anirat), Murder, and Thief each one has MAPE score 23.2%, 31.2%, 21.2%, 33.2%, and 50%, or Reasonable prediction criterion, while MAPE score for Animal Theft is 92% or Inaccurate prediction criterion. In general, the criminality rate prediction system using TES method that has been developed for the case study on Resort Police of Kabupaten Probolinggo obtains MAPE score 28,3% or Reasonable prediction criterion.
Co-Authors A.I. Wuryandari A.S. Ahmad Aciek Ida Wuryandari Adang Suwandi Ahmad Adang Suwandi Ahmad Adang Suwandi Ahmad Addin, Tri Nur Ade Ismail Adhika Febrianto Adinandra, Dimas Eka Affandi, Luqman Afifah Millatina Nugraheni Agustian, Harliyus Alfian, Ahmad Alfian Alvi Rahmadhani Anggraini Kusumaningrum, Anggraini Anggraini Ningrum, Annisa Annisa Puspa Kirana Annurroni, Ilyas Anton Setiawan Honggowibowo Ardhia Rahmania, Diva Arie Rachmad Syulistyo Arya Septiawan Astika AyuningTyas, Astika Aziza, Nadia Layra Bachri, Karel Octavianus Bambang Anggoro Soedjarno Bambang Gastomo Bayu Anugerah Rahardjo Putra Benedictus Mardwianta, Benedictus Bima Gilang Lesmana Brian Adam Bhagaskara Catherine Olivia Sereati Chika Labita David Putra Setyawan David Putra Setyawan, David Putra Denny Dermawan Dhebys Suryani Hormansyah, Dhebys Suryani Dimas Rossiawan Hendra Putra Dimas Rossiawan Hendra Putra Djapri, Suparman Dwi Nugraheny, Dwi Dwiguspana, Edwin Emy Setyaningsih Farchan Agil, Mochammad Farel Putra Hidayat Farida Agustini Widjajati Febrianto, Adhika Fiernaningsih, Nilawati Findi, Putri Firman Munthaha Hadi, Arijo Haruno Sajati Haryo Budi Rahmadi Hijriana, Sukriya Ibrohim Farros, Ammar Indrazno Siradjuddin Jaka Sembiring Jaka Sembiring Khayam, Umar Ladiyan, M. Shafriza Luluk Mufida M. Ardli Aqdama Mamluatul Hani’ah Maulana Zinedin Zidane Mawarni, Putri Indah Mila Kusuma Moch Zawaruddin Abdullah Mochammad Syaifuddin Zuhri Muhammad Auful Kirom Muhammad Bisri Musthafa Muhammad Bisri Musthofa Muhammad Ifan Fanani Muhammad Oktoda Noorrohman Mustika Mentari Nabilah Hanun Nafisah, Nihayatun Naily Ikmalul Insiyah Ngat Mari Ngatmari Nugraheni, Afifah Milatina Nugroho, Sutopo Purwo Nurwicaksana, Wahyu Aulia Nuryatno, Edi Triono Odhitya Desta Triswidrananta Odhitya Desta Triswidrananta Pamungkas, Dedi Bintang Partono, Rani Pramitarini, Yushintia Pranata, Aldi Surya Prastiwi, Dila Prihantoro, Mitro Pujiastuti, Asih Purwoko, Agus Putra, Septafiansyah Dwi Rahmad, Cahya Rahman, Alex Firmansyah Rahmawati, Fajar Khanif Ramadhanty, Gisanda Aliya Ricky Yulian Adi Pratama Rindu Alriavindra Funny Rokhimatul Wakhidah Rudy Laksmono Widayatno Salam Aryanto Sarwono Sutikno Satwika, Satriya Dipa Semmy Tyar Armandha Septian Enggar Sukmana Setiawan, Paulus Siswanto, Sela Aulia SUDARYANTO SUDARYANTO Sukma Himawan, Dhimas Arbi Sulistio, Andhika Syahbana, Muhammad Rifky Syamsiana, Ika Noer Syamsuri, Tresna Umar Trio Adiono Wahyudi, Moh Ari Wildan Fikri, Mohammad Wintolo, Hero Yenni Astuti, Yenni Yoda, Vincensius Arga Yohana, Puspa Ayu Yohana Yoppy Yunhasnawa Yushintia Pramitarini Yusuf Kurniawan Zaenal Abidin Zidan Fahreza Zidan Shabira As Sidiq