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Journal : IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science

Application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic System in Short Term Load Forecasting on Special Days Agus Dharma; Imam Robandi; Mauridhi Hery Purnomo
IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science Vol 22, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : IPTEK, LPPM, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j20882033.v22i2.65

Abstract

This paper presents the application of Interval Type-2 fuzzy logic systems (Interval Type-2 FLS) in short term load forecasting (STLF) on special days, study case in Bali Indonesia. Type-2 FLS is characterized by a concept called footprint of uncertainty (FOU) that provides the extra mathematical dimension that equips Type-2 FLS with the potential to outperform their Type-1 counterparts. While a Type-2 FLS has the capability to model more complex relationships, the output of a Type-2 fuzzy inference engine needs to be type-reduced. Type reduction is used by applying the Karnik-Mendel (KM) iterative algorithm. This type reduction maps the output of Type-2 FSs into Type-1 FSs then the defuzzification with centroid method converts that Type-1 reduced FSs into a number. The proposed method was tested with the actual load data of special days using 4 days peak load before special days and at the time of special day for the year 2002-2006. There are 20 items of special days in Bali that are used to be forecasted in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively. The test results showed an accurate forecasting with the mean average percentage error of 1.0335% and 1.5683% in the year 2005 and 2006 respectively.
Wind-Electric Power Potential Assessment for Three Locations in East Java-Indonesia Ali Musyafa; I Made Yulistya Negara; Imam Robandi
IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science Vol 22, No 3 (2011)
Publisher : IPTEK, LPPM, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j20882033.v22i3.71

Abstract

This paper reports our effort to asses wind energy potentials for three locations in East Java. We used wind speed data over a period of almost 3 years, i.e. in period of June 2006 – August 2008. Data were taken from direct measurement in locations in East Java Province, i.e. Sampang (Madura), Juanda (Surabaya), and Sawahan (Nganjuk). The short-term of wind speed mean in monthly signifies to wind-speed value ”which parallels to the wind turbine power curve value” were used to estimate the annual energy output for a 1 MW installed capacity wind farm on the each site 100 of 10kW rated wind turbines were used in the analysis. The short term of wind speed mean at Surabaya and Nganjuk were 2.34, 3.03 and 1.97 m/s at 2 m Above Ground Level (AGL), respectively. In both locations, wind speeds were observed during the day time between 04.00 and 18.00 and relatively smaller ones between 19.00 and 03.00 period. Meanwhile, in Sampang (Madura) the higher wind speeds were observed between 20.00 and 06.00, and relatively smaller between 07.00 and 19.00 period. The 1 MW windfarm at Sampang, Surabaya and Nganjuk can produce 1.284; 1.199 and 1.008 MWh of electricity yearly, taking into consideration of the temperature adjustment coefficien of about 6 %. The plant capacity factor at Sampang, Surabaya and Nganjuk were found to be 30.02 %, 30.00 % and 30.01 % respectively. Additionally, it is noticed that these site can contribute to the avoidance of 0.904; 0.846 and 0.709 tons/year of CO2 equivalent Green House Gases (GHG) from entering into the local atmosphere, thus creating a clean and healthy athmosphere for local inhabitants.
Co-Authors Abraham, Richard Adi Soeprijanto Afdhal, Muhammad Afif Nur Wahyudi Agus Dharma Ahmad Zakaria Hizbullah Akbar Swandaru Aksan, Ahmad Al Irsad, Muhammad Afif Al-Furqan, Muhammad Alfredo Gusmao Ali Musyafa Almas Prakasa, Mohamad Andi Imran Angga Prasetya Ardiansya Samsul, Vito Ardyono Priyadi Atiqah Hilmy Raditya Aulia, Dzacky Aulia, Gustav Bedy Kharisma Benny Prastikha Hadhi Budisantoso Wirjodirdjo Candra Riawan, Dedet Darmansyah Darmansyah Dedet Candra Riawan Dewi Anugrah Rizqi Dian, Faizal Dwi Ajiatmo Dwi Ajiatmo Dwi Ajiatmo Dwi Ajiatmo Dwi Didit Prasetiyo Dwi Lastomo Dwi Syahimullah, Akzar Eko Mulyanto Yuniarno Elza Dwi Rachmayanti Ervina Nooraini Fachrudin Hunaini Faisal Faisal Farid Dwi Murdianto Fayyad, Moh Firdaus Firdaus Furqoan, Muhammad Ghazi, Argon Luthfan Gita Dwipermata Sari Haque, Gabriel Harus Laksana Guntur Heri Suryoatmojo Herlambang Setiadi Heryanto Hartra M M Heryanto Hartra M M Hidayat, Muh. Taufik Imam Hidayatul Nurohmah Himawari, Waseda I Made Yulistya Negara I Nyoman Adi Putra Imam, Muhammad Taufik Imron, Khafit Irfan Rashidi Irsad, Muh. Afif Al Jelang Ramadhan, Muhammad Kumala, Arimbi Machrus Ali Mahdiah, Hakimah Mallarangeng, Andi Mauridhi Hery Purnomo Mochamad Ashari Mohamad Almas Prakasa Muchyiddin, Muhammad Imam Muhammad Kurniawan Muhammad Ruswandi Djalal Muhammad Siddiq Basid Muhammad Taufiq Ramadhan Muhammad Yusuf Mappeasse Mursid, Muhammad Musrady Mulyadi Musrifinah, Musrifinah Natha, Kanidra Nur Atiqah Rianty Sari Nyoman Sutantra Ontoseno Penangsang Ontoseno Penangsang Prakasa, Mohamad Almas Pujiantara, Margo R. Dwi Cahyo Ramadhani, Akhmad Ramadoni Syahputra Ridho, Hasan Rodhi Kelvianto Rony Seto Wibowo Saputra, Reki Aji Satria, Moch. Adri SATRIYAS ILYAS Seno Aji Seno Aji Serpian, Serpian Sidaryanto Sidaryanto Sjamsjul Anam Soedibyo Soedibyo Soedibyo Soedibyo Sudaryono, M Suharto Suharto Tazkiyatunnisa, Tazkiyatunnisa Teguh Yuwono Usman Usman Vita Lystianingrum Wendy Kurniawan Kautsar Yose Rizal Yose Rizal Zahir, Ahmad Zainal Abidin Zaky Khalik, Fuad