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All Journal JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Pelita Eksakta Suluah Bendang: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Rangkiang Mathematics Journal UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Dodi Vionanda
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Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting

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Comparison of the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and the Heuristic Model in Forecasting the Number of International Tourists in West Sumatra Rizki Akbar; Fitri, Fadhilah; Vionanda, Dodi; Mukhti, Tessy Octavia
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.20

Abstract

The Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Heuristic are two forecasting methods based on fuzzy logic used to predict values in time series. The FTS Chen and Heuristic models have almost identical forecasting processes, but the main difference lies in how they develop fuzzy logical relationships. The FTS Chen model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups obtained from the results of Fuzzy Logical Relationships for the forecasting process. On the other hand, the FTS Heuristic model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationships directly in the forecasting process. Fuzzy Logical Relationships are a collection of fuzzy logical relationships used to connect values in time series. By using Fuzzy Logical Relationships, the Heuristic model can predict values in time series more accurately and effectively. The forecasting is done to plan the development of tourism infrastructure, determine service needs, and optimize tourism promotion. The data shows that the number of foreign tourists visiting West Sumatra has continued to grow from 2006 to 2023. The comparison of the accuracy of the forecasting results of FTS Chen and Heuristic models for foreign tourists in West Sumatra yielded a MAPE of 0.241% for FTS model Chen and 0.194% for FTS model Heuristic. This indicates that the best forecasting model for foreign tourists is the Heuristic model due to its lower MAPE value.
Co-Authors Admi Salma Admi Salma Afdhal, Afdhal Rezeki Afifah Salsabilah Putri Aidillah, Kerin Hagia Alandra, Cindy Resha Aldwi Riandhoko Alfathan, Muhammad Luthfi Amanda, Abilya Amannia zeze Andini Yulianti Aprilla Suhada Ardhi, Sonia Atus Amadi Putra Bahri Annur Sinaga Cindy Pratiwi, Cindy defal aditya defran Dina Fitria Dina Fitria Dina Fitria, Dina Dinda Fitriza Dony Permana Dwi Sulistiowati, Dwi Eujeniatul Jannah Fadhilah Fitri Fadhillah Fitri Fashihullisan Fayyadh Ghaly Fayza Annisa Febrianti FAZHIRA ANISHA Febri Ramayanti Findri Wara Putri Fitri, Fadhilah Fitri, Fitri Hayati Fitria Panca Ramadhani Hariati Ainun Nisa Husni, Nabila Ichlas Djuazva Ihsanul Fikri Isra Miraltamirus Jimmi Darma putra Jumiati, Susi Kamil, Fakhri Larissa, Dwika Latifah Jayatri Febiola Lifia Zullani Mardhiatul Azmi martha, Ully Martha Muhammad Ravi Azzaki Muhammad Tibri Syofyan Mukhti, Tessy Octavia nabillah putri Nanda P, Muhamad Rayhan Nazifatul Azizah Nikma Hasanah Nonong Amalita Nufhika Fishuri Nur Leli Nurul Afifah Permana, Dony Putra, Dio Afdal Putra, M. Farel Rusde Putri, Triana Rahmadina Adityana Rahmanesta, Frandito rama novialdi Rivani, Putri Rizki Akbar Robiati, Silfi Salma, Admi Seif Adil El-Muslih Shavira Asysyifa S Sherly Amora Jofipasi Silvia Agustina Siti Nurhaliza Susrifalah, Amelia Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syahfitrri, Nindi Syifa Azahra Tessy Octavia Mukhti Wood, Raihan Attaya Yarman Yarman, Yarman Yenni Kurniawati Yunistika Ilanda Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi Zulzila, Alivia