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Kusnawi Kusnawi
Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta
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Journal : bulletin of network engineer and informatics bufnets

 1 
COMPARISON OF BAYESIAN MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FOR STUDENT CUMULATIVE GRADE POINT AVERAGE PREDICTION WITH FEATURE ENGINEERING Husni Hidayat Malik; Indra Surya Permana; Alva Hendi Muhammad; Kusnawi Kusnawi
Bulletin of Network Engineer and Informatics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): BUFNETS (Bulletin of Network Engineer and Informatics) April 2026
Publisher : PT. GWEX NET PUBLISHER

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59688/vfk6qw80

Abstract

Prediksi Indeks Prestasi Kumulatif (IPK) merupakan salah satu tantangan penting dalam manajemen akademik perguruan tinggi. Penelitian ini mengusulkan penerapan algoritma Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) berbasis inferensi Bayesian untuk memprediksi IPK mahasiswa berdasarkan Indeks Prestasi Semester (IPS) 1-8, dilengkapi dengan tiga fitur rekayasa: rata-rata IPS, variabilitas IPS (standar deviasi), dan tren IPS. Keunggulan utama pendekatan Bayesian adalah kemampuannya menghasilkan kuantifikasi ketidakpastian (uncertainty quantification) berupa interval kepercayaan 95% untuk setiap prediksi, yang tidak dapat dilakukan metode machine learning konvensional. Model MCMC dibandingkan secara komprehensif dengan tujuh algoritma machine learning: Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, SVM, KNN, AdaBoost, dan Bagging, menggunakan dataset 543 mahasiswa dari Institut Teknologi dan Kesehatan Mahardika periode 2017-2021. Evaluasi dilakukan melalui train-test split (80:20) dan 5-fold cross-validation menggunakan metrik RMSE, MAE, MAPE, dan R². Hasil pada data testing menunjukkan MCMC Bayesian memperoleh RMSE 0.0792 dan R² 0.867, berada pada peringkat kedua setelah Gradient Boosting. Namun pada evaluasi cross-validation yang lebih robust, MCMC Bayesian unggul dengan RMSE terendah 0.0832±0.0162 dan R² tertinggi 0.848. Temuan ini menunjukkan MCMC Bayesian tidak hanya kompetitif dari sisi akurasi, tetapi juga memberikan nilai tambah unik berupa estimasi ketidakpastian prediksi yang sangat berguna untuk sistem peringatan dini akademik.   Predicting Cumulative Achievement Index (GPA) is a key challenge in higher education academic management. This study proposes the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference for predicting student GPA based on Semester Achievement Index (IPS) from semesters 1-8, enriched with three engineered features: IPS mean, IPS variability (standard deviation), and IPS trend. The primary advantage of the Bayesian approach is its ability to produce uncertainty quantification in the form of 95% credible intervals for each prediction, which conventional machine learning methods cannot provide. The MCMC model was comprehensively compared against seven machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, SVM, KNN, AdaBoost, and Bagging, using a dataset of 543 students from Institut Teknologi dan Kesehatan Mahardika for the period 2017-2021. Evaluation was conducted through an 80:20 train-test split and 5-fold cross-validation using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² metrics. Test set results show MCMC Bayesian achieved RMSE 0.0792 and R² 0.867, ranking second after Gradient Boosting. However, in the more robust cross-validation evaluation, MCMC Bayesian outperformed all competitors with the lowest RMSE of 0.0832±0.0162 and highest R² of 0.848. These findings demonstrate that MCMC Bayesian is not only competitive in accuracy but also provides the unique value of prediction uncertainty estimation, which is highly useful for early academic warning systems
Co-Authors Abdulloh, Ferian Fauzi Afrig Aminuddin Agung Susanto Agung Susanto Ahmad Fauzi Ahmad Yusuf Ainnur Rafli Ainul Yaqin Aldi Yogie Pramono Ali Mustopa, Ali Alva Hendi Muhammad Andi Sunyoto Anggit Dwi Hartanto Anggit Dwi Hartanto, Anggit Dwi Ardiansyah, Fachri Arief Maehendrayuga Arief Setyanto Arifuddin, Danang Arnila Sandi Aryawijaya Asadulloh, Bima Pramudya Assani, Moh. Yushi Atin Hasanah Atmoko, Alfriadi Dwi Aulya, Fiola Utri BAYU SATRIYA, RIYAN Bhahari, Rifqi Hilal Candra Rusmana Christa Putri Rahayu Dede - Sandi Dede Husen Dede Sandi Dewi Kartika Dharma Kusumah, Prema Adhitya Dimaz Arno Prasetio Elsa Virantika Ema Utami Erna Utami Fajar Abdillah, Moh Fajar Aji Prayoga Hakiki, Muhammad Ridhwan Haris, Ruby Hartatik Haryo, Wasis Hasanah, Atin Hasirun Hasirun Hendrik Hendrik Henri Kurniawan Hidayatunnisa'i Huda, Luthfi Nurul Husni Hidayat Malik Indana Zulfa Indra Surya Permana Irawanto, Indra Joang Ipmawati Joang Ipmawati Joang Ipmawati Juventania Sheva Mellany Karisma Septa Kresna Karisma Septa Kresna Khairullah, Irfan Khalil Khoerul Anam, Khoerul Khoirunnita, Aulia Khrisna Irham Fadhil Pratama Kusrini Kusrini, Kusirini Ledyvia Audiz Coranov M Andika Fadhil Eka Putra M. Nurul Wathani Majid Rahardi Malik, Husni Hidayat Maringka, Raissa Mashuri, Ahmad Sanusi Melcior Paitin Kanoena Mochamad Agung Wibowo Mochamad Agung Wibowo Muh. Syarif Hidayatullah Muhammad Firdaus Abdi Muhammad Firdaus Abdi Muhammad Husein Budiraharjo Muhammad Irvan Shandika Muhammad Irvan Shandika Muhammad Reza Riansyah Nayoma, Fisan Syafa Neni Firda Wardani Tan Ngaeni, Nurus Sarifatul Nurul Zalza Bilal Jannah Omar Muhammad Altoumi Alsyaibani Pandiangan, Van Daarten Pebri Antara Pitaloka, Nadhira Triadha Prastyo, Rahmat Pringandana, Cokorda Gde Lanang Puji Prabowo, Dwi Qurniaty, Charlen Alta Raffa Nur Listiawan Dhito Eka Santoso Raffa Nur Listiawan Dhito Eka Santoso RAMADHAN, SYAIFUL Ridwan Sanjaya Ridwan Sanjaya Rifda Faticha Alfa Aziza Rita Wati Ritham Tuntun RIYAN BAYU SATRIYA Rizal Khadarusman Rodney Maringka Rohim, Ni’matur saifulloh Saifulloh, saifulloh Salman Alfaris Salman Alfaris, Salman San Sudirman Sekarsih, Fitria Nuraini Sentoso, Thedjo Sepriadi - Bumbungan Sepriadi Bumbungan Sri Yanto Qodarbaskoro Sry Faslia Hamka Sudirman, San Suyatmi Suyatmi Suyatmi Suyatmi Syaiful Huda Syaiful Ramadhan Tamuntuan, Virginia Taryoko, Taryoko Tegar Wirawan Teguh Arlovin Wahyu Pujiharto, Eka Wangsa, Sabda Sastra Wibowo , Mochamad Agung Widodo, Cynthia Widyanto, Agung Wirawan, Tegar Yudha Bagas Pattimura Yusa, Aldo Yusrinnatul Jinana triadin Yuza, Adela Zaenul Amri