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Aji Purwinarko, Aji
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Journal : Journal of Soft Computing Exploration

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Crude oil price prediction using Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) methods Purwinarko, Aji; Amalia Langgundi, Fitri
Journal of Soft Computing Exploration Vol. 4 No. 2 (2023): June 2023
Publisher : SHM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52465/joscex.v4i2.159

Abstract

Crude oil price fluctuations significantly affect commodity market price fluctuations, so a sudden drop in oil prices will cause a slowdown in the economy and other commodities. This is very important for Indonesia, one of the world's oil-producing countries, to gain multiple benefits from oil exports when world oil prices increase and increase economic growth. Therefore, a system is needed to predict world crude oil prices. In this case, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is applied as the optimization of the weight parameters in the Artificial Neural Network-Backpropagation (ANN-BP) method. We compared the ANN-BP–PSO and ANN-BP methods to obtain the method with the best causation value based on the MAPE and MSE results. PSO aims to find the best weight value by iterating the process of finding and increasing position, speed, Pbest, and Gbest until the iteration is complete. The results showed that the ANN-BP-PSO process was classified as very good and had a lower predictive error rate than the ANN-BP method based on the MAPE and MSE values, which is 5.02007% and 7.15827% compared to 6.28323% and 13.86345.
Co-Authors Adi, Mahargjo Hapsoro Aditya Marianti Akhmad Munawar Alfa Narendra Alfandy Himawan Bagus Rafli Amalia Langgundi, Fitri Amidi Amidi Amin Retnoningsih Amirul Mukminin Andestian, Defin Anggyi Trisnawan Putra Annindya Ardiansari Ardhi Prabowo Arif Widiyatmoko, Arif Arsyadani, Fathan Aryani, Nila Prasetya Aryono Adhi, Aryono Bambang Sugiantoro Budi Prasetiyo, Budi Budiman, Kholiq Cahyani, Rima Ayu Damayanti, Dela Rista Dela Rista Damayanti Dimarti, Safira Chairani Edi Subkhan, Edi Fathan Arsyadani Fianti Fianti, Fianti Fitri Arum Sasi, Fitri Arum Fridiyanto, Fridiyanto Hakim, M. Faris Al Hapsari, Renita Arianti Hasan Mukhibad Hasani, Azharu Alfi Ian Yulianti, Ian Indah Urwatin Wusqo Insan , Shiva Maulana Khoiru Islam, Muhamad Anbiya Nur Kasinyo Harto Langlang Handayani Lutfia Nur Hadiyanti, Lutfia Nur Mahargjo Hapsoro Adi Majidah Majidah Mardiansyah, M Fadil Martien Herna Susanti Melati, Inaya Sari Melissa Salma Darmawan MHD. Reza M.I. Pulungan Muhamad Taufiq Munawar, Akhmad Mutoriq, Alfat Nor Hafizah Ngajikin Nuni Widiarti Nur Kusuma Dewi Putra, Ngurah Made Darma Rahmawati, Sinta Kurnia Renita Arianti Hapsari Rima Ayu Cahyani Ririanti, Novia Puji Sri Siswati Subagja, Mona Subhan Subhan SUGIYANTO Sugiyarta Stanislaus, Sugiyarta Sujarwata Sujarwata Sukestiyarno Sukestiyarno Susilo Susilo Syuja Zhafran Rakha Krishandhie Syukron Salam, Syukron Tris Sugiarto Tsabit Azinar Ahmad Utis Sutisna Wahyu Hardyanto Wahyu Setyaningrum Widiyanto Widiyanto Woro Sumarni Yanuarto, Alfath YB. Praharto Yuliantika, Atika