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PREDICT THE PRICE OF CURLY RED CHILI IN NORTH SUMATRA USING THE HOLT WINTERS ADDITIVE METHOD Nurainun, Umi Sarah; Dur, Sajaratud; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v2i1.49

Abstract

Curly red chilies are one of the vegetable commodities that have an effect on national economic growth. North Sumatra is one of the largest red chilli have a problem with price fluctuations which will result in inflanation. Erratic chili prices will have an impact on society and the country. The right policy to avoid negative impact on price fluctuations of North Sumatra’s curly red chilies is to predict it in the future. The purpose of this study was to obtain the result of the prediction of the price of North Sumatra curly red chilies. The results of this analysis can be used in determining the right policy. The method used in this study is the Holt Winters Additive Method, because the Holt Winters Additive Method is a method that can be used for forecasting data that has elements of trend and seasonality. The data used in this study is the average price of North Sumatra curly red chilies per week from January 2020 to February 2021 which is obtained from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center. After testing the price of curly red chilies in North Sumatra, a forecast data plot is obtained which tends to follow the actual data. Then the error rate is measured using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The MAPE results obtained were 10.15% with the best parameters ? = 0.84, ? = 0.09 and ? = 0.83. this means that the Holt Winters Additive method has a good level of accuracy used to predict the price of curly red chilies in North Sumatra Province.
OPTIMIZATION OF SYAHFIRA BAKERY PRODUCTION USING THE TAGUCHI-PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS (PCA) METHOD Dongoran, Rodiani; Dur, Sajaratud; Widyasari, Rina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v3i2.73

Abstract

The bread-making business is part of the finished food industry which uses wheat flour as the main raw material for its production process. Bread production has quality characteristics, namely bread surface roughness (Smaller is better) and material processing rate (Larger is better). The combination of the Taguchi-Principal Component Analysis method is used to optimize bread products. The experimental design used is the L9 orthogonal matrix. These quality characteristics are influenced by factors such as the length of time for mixing and kneading, yeast fermentation, roasting time and the dose of water with 3 levels each. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used to eliminate correlated correlated responses to an uncorrelated quality index. The results showed that this method can improve the quality of bread production in influencing the surface roughness of the bread and the significant speed of processing the ingredients is the dough time, yeast fermentation, and baking time.
FORECASTING THE USE OF OKE JACK COMPANY’S ONLINE TRANSPORTATION IN MEDAN USING THE CHENG FUZZZY TIME SERIES METHOD Sari, Dinda; Dur, Sajaratud; Rakhmawati, Fibri; Anjelina, Repina
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 3 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v3i2.116

Abstract

Transportation is an activity to move goods or people from one place to another. At present, transportation is very much needed by all groups to carry out an activity. Along with the development of the times and with the development of the times and with the existence of an internet, now many enterpreneurs are opening a business such as online transportation. This study uses the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method in his research to see how accurate the model is to predict the future period. The results of the research using the Fuzzy Time Series Cheng method on the five service features in the Oke Jack, it was found that some of these service features resulted in MAPE error values below 10%, which is the best measure.
APPLICATION OF OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY TO INVENTORY PROBLEMS THAT ARE INCREASING AT PT. INDUSTRY PLYWOOD TJIPTA RIMBA DJAJA Harahap, Tramilta Salsabila; Dur, Sajaratud; Husein, Ismail
Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Pena Cendekia Insani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.53806/jmscowa.v3i1.525

Abstract

Every company that carries out businees activities generally has inventory. Inventories include raw materials, semi-finished goods or finished goods. Inventories of goods in the company have increased and decreased. An increase in inventory can cause losses, because the cost of storing and maintaining in the warehouse is too high. While a decrease in inventory can result in a shortage of inventory. The purpose of this research is to determine the level of optimal inventory in PT. Industry Plywood Tjipta Rimba Djaja. Using the optimal control theory model and analyzing the stability of the dynamic differential equation, to find the optimal inventory level. Obtained optimal inventory levels achieve stability at the time . For the planning length of 12 months includes: raw material inventory (logs sengon and rambung), production (finished materials in process) and finished plywood or plywood products that are in the warehouse. From this research optimal control theory can be applied in PT. Industry Plywood Tjipta Rimba Djaja to optimize inventory on the problem of increasing inventory.
Effect of Avocado Seed Flour Nugget on Organoleptic Tests Eliska, Eliska; Dur, Sajaratud
Poltekita : Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan Vol. 17 No. 4 (2024): February
Publisher : Poltekkes Kemenkes Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33860/jik.v17i4.3279

Abstract

Avocado seeds contain a lot of starch and can be processed into foods such as avocado seed flour (TBA). TBA is classified as low-protein flour but has a lot of nutritional content, so it can be made into noodles or other food products. This research aimed to determine the acceptability of avocado seed flour nuggets with chicken, catfish, and shrimp variants. The research design in this study is a pure experiment with a simple experimental design. A simple experimental design is also called a posttest-only control group design. This research design was a nugget design with 25% avocado seed flour and 25% tapioca flour with three treatments (three flavor variants), chicken, catfish, and shrimp (50%). The results of this study showed that there were significant differences in the chicken, catfish, and shrimp nugget variants based on color categories because the results were p<0.05. In terms of texture, the test shows a p-value of >0.05, which means that there is no real difference between the three variants of avocado seed nuggets. In conclusion, this research is based on the results of the ANOVA test on avocado seed nuggets with chicken, catfish, and shrimp variants. The results obtained were that there were real differences in the chicken, catfish, and shrimp nugget variants based on the color, taste, and aroma categories. Meanwhile, in the texture category, the test results obtained were that there were no real differences between the three avocado seed nugget variants.
Model Based Clustering for Regency/City Grouping Based on Community Welfare Indicators in North Sumatra Hasibuan, Muhammad Afif Fauzi; Cipta, Hendra; Dur, Sajaratud
Jurnal Pijar Mipa Vol. 19 No. 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, University of Mataram. Jurnal Pijar MIPA colaborates with Perkumpulan Pendidik IPA Indonesia Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpm.v19i3.6595

Abstract

This thesis aims to apply model-based clustering in grouping regencies/cities in North Sumatra based on Community Welfare Indicators to determine the number of groups (clusters) formed based on community welfare indicators in regencies/cities in North Sumatra and to understand the level of community welfare from this grouping in planning and managing community welfare in regencies/cities in North Sumatra, with the hope of achieving equal welfare in every region. The research method used is Model-Based Clustering, which uses 5 research data variables: HDI, Poor Population, Unemployment Rate, GDP, and Health. In this millennial era, the assessment of community welfare requires more attention. Rapid social, technological, and environmental changes have created new dynamics that can affect community welfare. The evaluation of community welfare is not only limited to economic parameters but also considers health, unemployment, and other factors. By using Model-Based Clustering, it is possible to determine the optimal number of groups (clusters) from various and possibly correlated variables, and the results are easier to understand, making the analysis and understanding of the results easier. Readers can learn about the level of community welfare, and the community and government can evaluate their welfare for future improvements. The research results show that among the groups of regencies/cities formed, five cities consistently show lower Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) and Human Development Index (HDI) than other cities. Therefore, a sustainable approach is needed to improve these cities' economic conditions and social welfare.
Determining Zoning of Areas Affected by Flood Disasters in Medan City Using Silhouette Coefficient and Davies Bouldin Index Analysis Eliza, Novi; Husein, Ismail; Dur, Sajaratud
Jurnal Pijar Mipa Vol. 19 No. 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics and Science Education, Faculty of Teacher Training and Education, University of Mataram. Jurnal Pijar MIPA colaborates with Perkumpulan Pendidik IPA Indonesia Wilayah Nusa Tenggara Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jpm.v19i3.6707

Abstract

Several sub-districts are cities that are pretty or even very vulnerable to flood disasters. Therefore, the Government must observe which areas are highly prone to flooding to anticipate safety precautions. One of the relevant methods for handling this case is k-means clustering using the Silhouette Coefficient and Davies-Bouldin Index evaluation. This research uses a quantitative approach using the Silhouette Coefficient and Davies Bouldin Index Analysis method. Based on the research that has been carried out, the results can be obtained that cluster 1 consists of the sub-districts of Medan Polonia, Medan Johor, Medan Selayang, Medan Baru, Medan Tuntungan and Medan Barat. Cluster 2 only has one member, namely the Medan Maimun sub-district; Cluster 3 consists of Medan Sunggal and Medan Belawan sub-districts, and Cluster 4 consists of Medan Marelan, Medan Helvetia and Medan Timur sub-districts. The results of the clustering evaluation that was carried out obtained a Silhouette Coefficient value of 0.505539942 and a Davies-Bouldin Index value of 0.30055. This means that the grouping carried out in this research is accurate.
Monte Carlo Simulation Of Estimating Clean Water Supplies Walid, Fajari Husnul; Dur, Sajaratud; Aprilia, Rima
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 5, No 1 (2021): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v5i1.11099

Abstract

Estimates are important tools in effective and efficient planning for predicting future events. Identical estimates of the future values of a variable for planning or decision making of a situation to estimate future values. Monte Carlo simulation is a simulation model that involves a series of random and sampling with a probability distribution that can be known and determined, then this simulation can be used. In this study, data is taken from the amount of water usage in PDAM Tirtanadi H.M branch. Yamin, North Sumatra from January 2018 to June 2019. Then, the data is processed and analyzed using Monte Carlo Simulation to determine the forecast results in the years that follow. The result is an estimated amount of water usage in 2019 and 2020 at PDAM Tirtanadi H.M branch. Yamin, North Sumatra is 8,604,556 and 8,592,873. The estimated amount of water use is down from the amount of water use in 2018 which reached 8,685,356. The amount of water usage in 2018, 2019 and 2020 decreases by about .
ZEOLITE PROCESSING AS HEAVY MATERIAL Dur, Sajaratud
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 1, No 1 (2017): January - June
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (532.935 KB) | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v1i1.1457

Abstract

Research on zeolite processing as a reinforcement material is done to utilize natural resources in North Sumatera Province. Zeolite processing is so nanometer-sized by using a ballmill. Activation of zeolite is done by heating 1050 C for 10 minutes. The resulting zeolite particle size is 290 nanometers. It is obtained from 80 grams of zeolite measuring 1700 nanometers to 15 grams measuring 290 nanometers for 34 hours of grinding process in the ballmill.
Analisa Kromatografi Gas Spektrometri Massa dan Gugus Fungsi Ekstrak Metanol Daun Bidara (Ziziphus mauritiana): Analisa Kromatografi Gas Spektrometri Massa dan Gugus Fungsi Ekstrak Metanol Daun Bidara (Ziziphus mauritiana) Widiarti, Leni; Febriani, Husnarika; Dur, Sajaratud; Ningrum, Nurlian Augustin; Nurcahyani, Nadya; Andry, Muhammad
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences Suppl. 1, No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Fakultas Farmasi Universitas Tjut Nyak Dhien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36490/journal-jps.com.v6i5-si.449

Abstract

Bidara leaves are a plant that is quite abundant in Medan and has many benefits in the health sector. The aim of this research is to predict the content of secondary metabolite compounds in bidara leaf extract, through qualitative tests by screening using specific reagents, functional group analysis with FT-IR and mass analysis with GC-MS. The screening results showed that the methanol extract of bidara leaves contained alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, saponins and phenols. Functional group analysis shows that the wavelength area is 3300 cm-1, namely OH absorption, 2700 - 2900 cm-1 shows C-H absorption, 1600 - 1700 cm-1 shows C=O absorption, 1400 - 1450 cm-1 shows C-H absorption, 1365 - 1385 cm-1 shows CH3 bent absorption, and 1000 – 1100 cm-1 shows C-O absorption. The results of mass analysis using GC-MS showed four dominant peaks from the compound, namely Z-5-Methyl-6-heneicosen-11-one, 17-Pentatriacontene, Ethyl iso-allocholate and Pentacosane.