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All Journal Teknisia Syntax Idea Journal Ilmiah Rinjani : Media Informasi Ilmiah Universitas Gunung Rinjani Open Science and Technology Jurnal Pengabdian Sosial Dharma Bakti Cendekia Dinamika
Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
Universitas Gunung Rinjani
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Kinerja dan Kerentanan Drainase Permukiman Kota Mataram pada Skenario RCP: Pendekatan SWMM–GIS Baiq Virgia Srihayati; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): Inovasi Material dan Struktur Adaptif untuk Infrastruktur Masa Depan
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.tf8ja323

Abstract

Perubahan iklim yang meningkatkan intensitas dan variabilitas curah hujan menimbulkan tantangan serius bagi kapasitas drainase perkotaan; studi terdahulu jarang mengaitkan kapasitas saluran eksisting dengan proyeksi iklim berbasis skenario RCP sehingga prediksi kinerja jangka panjang masih terbatas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi (to assess) kapasitas sistem drainase permukiman eksisting di Kota Mataram terhadap curah hujan aktual dan proyeksi iklim (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Studi dilakukan di tiga kecamatan rentan (Ampenan, Cakranegara, Selaparang); data historis (2000–2020) dan proyeksi CMIP6 dikumpulkan dan didownscale, survei 120 segmen saluran dilakukan, serta pemodelan hidrologi–hidraulika dilakukan menggunakan SWMM dan analisis spasial di ArcGIS. Simulasi memperlihatkan intensitas puncak 1-jam median 42 mm·jam⁻¹ (10-tahun) dengan kenaikan ≈+12% (RCP4.5, 2030s) dan ≈+28% (RCP8.5, 2050s), yang mendorong Q_runoff naik ≈+14% (RCP4.5) dan ≈+33% (RCP8.5). Kapasitas median saluran Q_saluran = 1.12 m³·s⁻¹, exceedance segmen meningkat dari 24% (historis) menjadi 48% (RCP4.5) dan 72% (RCP8.5); kedalaman genangan median naik 0.18 → 0.38–0.62 m, luas terdampak 3.6% → 7.9–14.2%, dan durasi median 6 → 12–28 jam. Model divalidasi (NSE kedalaman 0.68; NSE debit 0.75; R² = 0.73; RMSE = 0.14 m). Penelitian ini shows that integrating downscaled RCP scenarios with SWMM–GIS provides robust, quantitative evidence for revising design standards, prioritizing retrofit (35–65% segmen) dan nature-based solutions (reduksi puncak 12–22%), serta memperkuat kerangka teoretis Hydrologic Continuity, Open-Channel Hydraulics, dan Resilience untuk perencanaan adaptif drainase perkotaan. Climate change–driven increases in rainfall intensity and variability pose critical risks to urban drainage capacity; prior studies seldom link existing channel capacity with downscaled RCP projections, limiting long-term performance forecasts. This study aimed to assess the capacity of existing residential drainage systems in Mataram (Indonesia) against observed and projected rainfall (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The analysis was conducted in three high-risk districts (Ampenan, Cakranegara, Selaparang); historical (2000–2020) and CMIP6 projection data were downscaled, 120 channel segments were surveyed, and hydrologic–hydraulic modelling was performed using SWMM with GIS spatial analysis. Simulations showed a 1-hour design median intensity of 42 mm·h⁻¹ (10-yr) and projected increases of ≈+12% (RCP4.5, 2030s) and ≈+28% (RCP8.5, 2050s), yielding Q_runoff rises of ≈+14% and ≈+33% respectively. Median channel capacity Q_saluran = 1.12 m³·s⁻¹; segment exceedance rose from 24% (historical) to 48% (RCP4.5) and 72% (RCP8.5); median ponding depth increased 0.18 → 0.38–0.62 m, affected area 3.6% → 7.9–14.2%, and median duration 6 → 12–28 h. Model validation produced NSE(depth)=0.68, NSE(peak)=0.75, R²=0.73, RMSE=0.14 m. The study concludes that integrating downscaled RCP scenarios with SWMM–GIS yields actionable, quantitative evidence for updating design return periods, prioritizing phased retrofits and nature-based measures (peak reduction 12–22%), and advances theoretical understanding by operationalizing Hydrologic Continuity, Open-Channel Hydraulics and Resilience Theory for climate-adaptive urban drainage planning.
Evaluasi Empiris dan Pemodelan Prediktif Durabilitas Warm Mix Asphalt terhadap Siklus Beku - Cair pada Iklim Dataran Tinggi Hidayatul Amri; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): Inovasi Material dan Struktur Adaptif untuk Infrastruktur Masa Depan
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.yt6yw443

Abstract

Isu durabilitas perkerasan jalan pada kondisi iklim ekstrem menjadi krusial seiring meningkatnya frekuensi siklus beku–cair di dataran tinggi, sementara bukti empirik mengenai respons Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) terhadap fenomena tersebut masih terbatas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi secara kuantitatif pengaruh siklus beku–cair terhadap durabilitas WMA dan membandingkannya dengan Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). Studi ini dilaksanakan dengan pendekatan eksperimen laboratorium yang divalidasi data lapangan pada 1–2 lokasi dataran tinggi; sampel lab (n=40; WMA=20, HMA=20) dan core lapangan (n=24) were prepared and tested for physical and mechanical properties (VTM/VMA, ITS, Marshall, dynamic modulus, rutting, fatigue), and predictive models were developed using regression and Random Forest. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa setelah 50 siklus WMA mengalami peningkatan porositas +12.0% (CI95%: 9.1–14.9%) dan VTM +34% (3.8→5.1%), sedangkan HMA masing-masing +6.0% dan +20%; ITS WMA turun 28.0% (600→432 kPa) versus HMA 18.0% (640→525 kPa) (mixed-ANOVA: siklus F(3,32)=45.6, p<0.001; interaksi p=0.009). Laju degradasi ITS per 10 siklus adalah β=−0.056 (WMA) dan β=−0.036 (HMA); median cycles-to-failure 42 (WMA) vs 58 (HMA). Model Random Forest mencapai R²validasi=0.81. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa paparan freeze–thaw secara kuantitatif mempercepat penurunan kinerja WMA dibanding HMA; implikasinya adalah perlunya penyesuaian desain mix, inspeksi lebih sering, dan kalibrasi faktor lingkungan dalam kerangka Mechanistic-Empirical untuk perencanaan perkerasan di dataran tinggi. The durability of pavement materials under extreme climatic exposure is a pressing concern; however, empirical evidence on Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) performance under freeze–thaw cycles in highland environments is scarce. This study aims to assess quantitatively the influence of freeze–thaw cycles on WMA durability and to compare its performance with Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). A laboratory experiment with field validation was conducted at 1–2 highland sites; laboratory samples (n=40; WMA=20, HMA=20) and field cores (n=24) were tested for physical and mechanical indicators (VTM/VMA, ITS, Marshall stability, dynamic modulus, rutting, fatigue), and predictive models (regression and Random Forest) were developed. Results showed that after 50 cycles WMA exhibited a mean porosity increase of +12.0% (95% CI: 9.1–14.9%) and VTM rise of +34% (3.8→5.1%), while HMA increased +6.0% and +20% respectively; ITS decreased 28.0% for WMA (600→432 kPa) versus 18.0% for HMA (640→525 kPa) (mixed-ANOVA: cycles F(3,32)=45.6, p<0.001; interaction p=0.009). Degradation rates per 10 cycles were β=−0.056 (WMA) and β=−0.036 (HMA); median cycles-to-failure were 42 (WMA) and 58 (HMA). The Random Forest model achieved an R² validation of 0.81. These findings indicate that freeze–thaw exposure substantially accelerates WMA degradation relative to HMA. The implications include the need for mix design adjustments, more frequent inspection regimes, and the incorporation of empirically calibrated environmental damage factors into Mechanistic-Empirical pavement design frameworks.
Evaluasi Kinerja Seismik Struktur Gedung Rumah Sakit Ibu dan Anak Permata Hati Mataram Menggunakan Metode Pushover dan Respon Spektrum Berdasarkan ATC-40 IMAYATUL RA; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan; Ikroman Alhamzani
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Ketahanan Infrastruktur terhadap Perubahan Iklim dan Bencana Alam
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.cjemwt28

Abstract

Indonesia memiliki potensi gempa bumi yang tinggi karena berada di dekat pertemuan tiga lempeng tektonik aktif. Pulau Lombok adalah salah satu tempat dengan tingkat kerawanan yang tinggi. Rumah Sakit Ibu dan Anak (RSIA) Permata Hati Mataram adalah fasilitas kesehatan penting disana. Dengan kondisi ini, diperlukan evaluasi kinerja seismik untuk mengevaluasi kemampuan struktur dalam menahan beban gempa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menilai kinerja seismik struktur bangunan pengembangan RSIA Permata Hati Mataram dengan menggunakan dua pendekatan analisis, yaitu metode respon spektrum (analisis dinamik linier) dan metode pushover (analisis statik nonlinier), yang berpedoman pada ATC-40. Pemodelan struktur dilakukan dengan bantuan perangkat lunak SAP2000, dengan fokus pada analisis parameter gaya geser dasar (base shear), simpangan (displacement), serta pola distribusi sendi plastis. Hasil analisis metode respon spektrum menunjukkan perilaku elastis dengan simpangan maksimum sebesar 41,05 mm pada arah X dan 75,45 mm pada arah Y, serta tingkat kinerja Immediate Occupancy (IO). Sementara itu, metode pushover menunjukkan perilaku nonlinier dengan simpangan maksimum 90,50 mm pada arah X dan 103 mm pada arah Y, serta tingkat kinerja antara IO hingga Damage Control (DC). Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, struktur RSIA Permata Hati Mataram dinyatakan aman terhadap beban gempa sesuai kriteria ATC-40.  
Kerangka Rapid Visual Screening Berbasis Indeks Risiko untuk Penilaian Sistematis Kerentanan Seismik Bangunan Publik Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Ketahanan Infrastruktur terhadap Perubahan Iklim dan Bencana Alam
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.07p52q89

Abstract

Bangunan publik merupakan elemen infrastruktur vital yang berperan penting dalam keberlangsungan layanan esensial saat dan setelah bencana gempa bumi, khususnya di wilayah berkembang dengan tingkat seismisitas tinggi. Namun demikian, banyak bangunan publik belum dievaluasi secara sistematis menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis indeks risiko, sehingga prioritisasi mitigasi dan penguatan struktur sering kali tidak berbasis bukti yang terukur. Kesenjangan ini menunjukkan perlunya kerangka penilaian kerentanan seismik yang efisien, konsisten, dan aplikatif pada skala bangunan individual. Penelitian ini bertujuan menilai tingkat kerentanan seismik bangunan publik terhadap bencana gempa bumi secara kuantitatif. Penelitian ini dilakukan pada sejumlah bangunan publik di wilayah rawan gempa menggunakan data primer hasil survei lapangan. Pendekatan Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) diterapkan untuk mengumpulkan parameter struktural utama, yang selanjutnya diintegrasikan dengan metode risk index scoring untuk menghitung indeks kerentanan seismik. Analisis kuantitatif dilakukan terhadap klasifikasi risiko, perbandingan parameter struktural, serta uji konsistensi dan sensitivitas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa 68% bangunan publik berada pada kategori risiko sedang hingga tinggi, dengan skor kerentanan rata-rata sebesar 0,74, dan bangunan berusia lebih dari 30 tahun memiliki tingkat risiko yang secara signifikan lebih tinggi. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa integrasi RVS dan indeks risiko mampu menyediakan penilaian kerentanan yang stabil dan terukur. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi metodologis dan empiris terhadap pengembangan penilaian risiko seismik serta mendukung pengambilan keputusan berbasis risiko dalam upaya peningkatan ketahanan infrastruktur publik Abstract Public buildings constitute critical infrastructure that ensures the continuity of essential services during and after earthquake events, particularly in developing regions characterized by high seismicity. Nevertheless, many public buildings have not been systematically evaluated using quantitative risk-based approaches, resulting in mitigation and retrofit decisions that are often insufficiently evidence-based. This gap highlights the need for an efficient, consistent, and building-level seismic vulnerability assessment framework. This study aims to quantitatively assess the seismic vulnerability of public buildings exposed to earthquake hazards. The research was conducted on a set of public buildings located in a seismically active area using primary data collected through field surveys. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was applied to document key structural parameters, which were subsequently integrated with a standardized risk index scoring approach to compute seismic vulnerability indices. Quantitative analyses were performed to classify risk levels, compare structural parameters, and evaluate consistency and sensitivity of the assessment results. The findings indicate that 68% of the assessed public buildings fall within moderate-to-high seismic risk categories, with an average vulnerability score of 0.74, while buildings older than 30 years exhibit substantially higher risk levels. These results demonstrate that the integrated RVS–risk index approach provides a stable and measurable representation of seismic vulnerability. Overall, this study contributes methodologically and empirically to seismic risk assessment practices and supports risk-informed decision-making for enhancing the resilience of public building infrastructure.
Digital STEM Learning to Enhance Critical Thinking in Elementary Science Education: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Study Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
CENDEKIA : Jurnal Pendidikan Terintegrasi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Digital Pedagogy dan Transformasi Pembelajaran Dasar
Publisher : PT. LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/cendekia.erf3hy98

Abstract

Contemporary education increasingly emphasizes the development of higher-order thinking skills, particularly critical thinking, which plays a crucial role in enabling students to analyze information, evaluate evidence, and solve scientific problems. Although STEM-based learning has been widely recognized as an effective approach to promoting inquiry and problem-solving skills, its implementation at the elementary level often remains conventional and rarely integrates digital technologies systematically. This limitation creates a significant knowledge gap regarding how digitally integrated STEM learning environments can support students' critical thinking in science education. This study aimed to examine the effect of integrating a digital STEM approach on elementary students' critical thinking skills in science learning. A quasi-experimental design with a non-equivalent control group was employed involving 60 fifth-grade students from an elementary school in Indonesia. Data were collected through a rubric-based critical thinking test, classroom observation sheets, and a teacher perception questionnaire, and analyzed using descriptive statistics and t-tests. The results revealed that the experimental group demonstrated significantly greater improvements in critical thinking than the control group (t = 4.87, effect size = 0.82), with notable gains across the dimensions of analysis, evaluation, and problem-solving. These findings indicate that digital STEM integration fosters more interactive learning environments that enhance students' cognitive engagement in science learning. The study contributes theoretically by strengthening the linkage between STEM Education Theory and Critical Thinking Theory. It provides practical implications for the design of technology-supported science instruction in elementary education.
Artificial Intelligence-Based Interactive Learning Media for Improving Reading Comprehension in Elementary Education Nining Widyah Kusnanik; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
CENDEKIA : Jurnal Pendidikan Terintegrasi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Digital Pedagogy dan Transformasi Pembelajaran Dasar
Publisher : PT. LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/cendekia.zvngyj62

Abstract

This study investigates the effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based interactive learning media in improving elementary school students' reading comprehension within a technology-enhanced learning environment. The increasing integration of AI in education has created opportunities to develop adaptive, data-driven, and interactive instructional systems that support personalized learning. However, empirical studies examining the impact of AI on elementary-level reading comprehension remain limited. This study employed a quasi-experimental design with a pretest–posttest control group approach involving 60 fourth-grade students from a public elementary school in East Lombok Regency, Indonesia. Participants were divided into an experimental group that received AI-supported reading instruction and a control group that received conventional reading instruction. Data were collected using a reading comprehension test consisting of 30 items, student response questionnaires, and classroom observations. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, paired-sample and independent-sample t-tests, normalized gain (N-gain) analysis, and effect size calculations. In contrast, qualitative data were examined through thematic analysis. The results indicate that students exposed to AI-based interactive learning media demonstrated significantly greater improvements in reading comprehension than those receiving traditional instruction. The greatest learning gains were observed in higher-order comprehension skills, particularly inferential reasoning and summarizing ability. Additionally, students reported positive perceptions of the AI-supported learning environment, highlighting the role of adaptive feedback and interactive tasks in fostering comprehension. These findings suggest that AI-based interactive learning media can effectively enhance elementary students' reading comprehension and offer a promising approach to strengthening literacy instruction in technology-enhanced learning environments.
Digital Play-Based Pedagogy in Early Childhood Education: A Quasi-Experimental Study of Preschool Cognitive Development Suryansah; Ari Saputra; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
CENDEKIA : Jurnal Pendidikan Terintegrasi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Digital Pedagogy dan Transformasi Pembelajaran Dasar
Publisher : PT. LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/cendekia.45a7bw44

Abstract

This study examines the influence of play-based digital pedagogy on the cognitive development of early childhood learners in urban PAUD (early childhood education) settings. The rapid integration of digital technologies into education has created new opportunities to develop interactive, learner-centered learning environments. However, empirical research examining how digital pedagogy can be effectively integrated with play-based learning in early childhood education remains limited. This study employed a quasi-experimental research design with a pretest–posttest design to analyze changes in children’s cognitive development following the implementation of a structured, digital, play-based learning intervention. The participants consisted of early childhood learners aged 4–6 years enrolled in urban PAUD institutions. The intervention was conducted over six weeks, integrating digital storytelling, educational game-based learning, puzzle-solving activities, and guided digital exploration within play-based classroom practices. Data were collected using developmental observation checklists and cognitive task assessments that measured symbolic thinking, memory, problem-solving skills, logical classification, and early reasoning. The results indicate a statistically significant improvement in children's cognitive development following the intervention, with notable gains in symbolic reasoning and problem-solving abilities. These findings suggest that digital technologies, when implemented through developmentally appropriate play-based pedagogical strategies, can effectively stimulate cognitive engagement and support early learning processes. The study contributes to the development of an integrative pedagogical model combining digital pedagogy and play-based learning, grounded in Constructivist Learning Theory and Play-Based Learning Theory. It provides empirical evidence for designing innovative, developmentally appropriate digital learning environments in early childhood education.
Developing a Formative Construction Supply Chain Resilience Index to Improve Cost and Schedule Stability in Post-Disaster Projects Lalu Marzuandi; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
Open Science and Technology Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Open Science and Technology
Publisher : Research and Social Study Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33292/ost.v6i1.188

Abstract

Background: Construction material supply chain resilience has emerged as a critical determinant of infrastructure project success in disaster-prone regions; however, its quantitative measurement at the post-disaster project level remains limited, particularly at the district scale. Despite East Lombok being an earthquake-affected area with intensive reconstruction activities, no empirical model has systematically quantified supply chain resilience and tested its influence on project cost and schedule performance.Aims: This study aimed to identify priority factors of construction material supply chain resilience and to examine the effect of a resilience index on post-earthquake project performance.Methods: An explanatory quantitative approach was applied to 25 reconstruction projects in East Lombok, involving eight experts for AHP weighting and multiple regression analysis of CPI and SPI using SPSS/Stata.Result: The results indicated that supplier diversification was the dominant factor (weight = 0.32) with acceptable consistency (CR = 0.069), while the average resilience index reached 0.64. The resilience index explained 46% of cost performance variance and 52% of schedule performance variance, demonstrating significant positive relationships (p < 0.05).Conclusion: These findings confirm that supply chain resilience functions as a risk-buffering mechanism for cost and schedule stability in post-disaster projects. The study provides an empirical operationalization of Supply Chain Resilience into a measurable AHP-based index.
Pengembangan Climate-Integrated Road Vulnerability Index untuk Menilai Dampak Hujan Ekstrem terhadap Infrastruktur Jalan LALU MARZUANDI; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): Desain, Teknologi, dan Inovasi Infrastruktur Tangguh Bencana
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.3yqf6h89

Abstract

Perubahan iklim global telah meningkatkan intensitas hujan ekstrem yang secara signifikan memengaruhi kinerja dan ketahanan infrastruktur jalan, namun pendekatan penilaian kerusakan yang ada masih didominasi oleh analisis kondisi eksisting tanpa integrasi variabel iklim secara komprehensif. Kesenjangan ini membatasi kemampuan prediksi kerentanan jalan dalam menghadapi tekanan hidrometeorologis yang semakin kompleks. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan indeks risiko kerentanan infrastruktur jalan berbasis iklim yang mengintegrasikan variabel iklim ekstrem dan karakteristik struktural jalan. Penelitian dilakukan pada beberapa segmen jalan dengan panjang 500–1000 m menggunakan data curah hujan, kondisi drainase, material perkerasan, dan volume lalu lintas, serta data kerusakan jalan yang diukur melalui IRI. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan regresi linier, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), dan pemodelan indeks risiko berbasis normalisasi. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa curah hujan ekstrem (>100 mm/hari) meningkatkan kerusakan jalan hingga 48% dengan koefisien regresi signifikan (β = 0,48; p < 0,01), serta 62% segmen jalan berada dalam kategori risiko tinggi. Temuan ini menegaskan dominasi faktor iklim dalam menentukan kerentanan jalan dan menunjukkan bahwa indeks yang dikembangkan mampu mengklasifikasikan risiko secara akurat. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini berkontribusi pada penguatan Infrastructure Resilience & Climate Risk Theory serta menyediakan alat analitis berbasis data untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan dalam manajemen infrastruktur jalan yang berkelanjutan. Abstract Global climate change has intensified extreme rainfall events, significantly affecting the performance and resilience of road infrastructure; however, existing assessment approaches remain largely condition-based and fail to integrate climate variables fully. This gap limits the predictive capacity of vulnerability assessments under increasing hydrometeorological stress. This study aimed to develop a climate-integrated road vulnerability risk index that incorporates extreme climate variables and structural characteristics of road infrastructure. The study was conducted across multiple road segments (500–1000 m) using datasets on rainfall intensity, drainage conditions, pavement materials, traffic volume, and road damage, measured using the International Roughness Index (IRI). Data were analyzed using linear regression, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and normalized risk index modeling. The results showed that extreme rainfall (>100 mm/day) increased road deterioration by 48% (β = 0.48; p < 0.01), with 62% of road segments classified as high risk. These findings indicate the dominant role of climate factors in determining road vulnerability and demonstrate that the proposed index effectively classifies risk levels. Overall, this study advances Infrastructure Resilience & Climate Risk Theory and provides a data-driven analytical tool to support decision-making in sustainable road infrastructure management.
Pemetaan Risiko Longsor Berbasis Skenario Iklim melalui Integrasi GIS–AHP dan Pemodelan Stabilitas Lereng Hidayatul Amri; Lalu Ibrohim Burhan
DINAMIKA: Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): Desain, Teknologi, dan Inovasi Infrastruktur Tangguh Bencana
Publisher : PT LIB Research Cendekia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63982/dinamika.zdv4tj56

Abstract

Perubahan iklim global yang ditandai oleh peningkatan intensitas dan variabilitas curah hujan telah meningkatkan frekuensi serta keparahan longsor, sehingga menimbulkan tantangan signifikan dalam analisis stabilitas lereng pada bidang teknik sipil. Meskipun berbagai pendekatan geoteknik dan pemetaan berbasis GIS telah digunakan, model yang ada umumnya belum mengintegrasikan skenario iklim masa depan secara sistematis, sehingga ketidakpastian hidrologi jangka panjang belum terakomodasi secara memadai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyusun peta risiko longsor berbasis perubahan iklim melalui pendekatan kuantitatif terintegrasi. Penelitian dilakukan pada wilayah lereng perbukitan dengan data topografi, geoteknik, curah hujan, dan penggunaan lahan yang dianalisis menggunakan integrasi GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), serta analisis stabilitas lereng berbasis limit equilibrium. Data yang digunakan meliputi parameter tanah hasil uji laboratorium dan data spasial multi-layer yang diproses melalui teknik Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan curah hujan sebesar 20% menurunkan nilai Factor of Safety rata-rata hingga 34,9%, sementara sekitar 41% wilayah terklasifikasi dalam zona risiko tinggi. Selain itu, sekitar 70% kejadian longsor teridentifikasi pada lereng dengan kemiringan lebih dari 30°, menunjukkan dominasi faktor geometri lereng dalam ketidakstabilan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa perubahan iklim secara signifikan memengaruhi stabilitas lereng dan distribusi risiko longsor. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi penting dalam pengembangan model GIS-based climate slope risk mapping yang mengintegrasikan teori stabilitas lereng dan adaptasi perubahan iklim, serta menawarkan implikasi praktis untuk perencanaan tata ruang dan mitigasi risiko berbasis data dalam rekayasa teknik sipil. Abstract Global climate change, characterized by increasing intensity and variability of rainfall, has significantly amplified the frequency and severity of landslides, posing critical challenges for slope stability analysis in civil engineering. Although geotechnical methods and GIS-based mapping approaches have been widely applied, existing models generally lack systematic integration of future climate scenarios, leaving long-term hydrological uncertainty insufficiently addressed. This study aims to develop a climate-based landslide risk map using an integrated quantitative approach. The research was conducted in a hilly slope region using topographic, geotechnical, rainfall, and land-use data, analyzed through the integration of GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and limit equilibrium-based slope stability analysis. The dataset included laboratory-tested soil parameters and multi-layer spatial data processed using Multi-Criteria Evaluation techniques. The results showed that a 20% increase in rainfall reduced the average Factor of Safety by up to 34.9%, while approximately 41% of the study area was classified as high-risk zones. Furthermore, about 70% of landslide occurrences were associated with slopes exceeding 30°, indicating the dominant role of slope geometry in instability. These findings demonstrate that climate change significantly alters slope stability and the spatial distribution of landslide risk. This study contributes to the advancement of a GIS-based climate slope risk mapping framework integrating slope stability theory and climate adaptation, and provides practical implications for spatial planning and risk mitigation strategies in civil engineering.
Co-Authors Ari Saputra Artati, Hanindya Kusuma Baiq Virgia Srihayati Baiq Virgia Srihayati Buan Anshari Buan Anshari Dadang Warta Chandra Wirakesuma Fedya Diajeng Aryani Hidayatul Amri Ikroman Alhamzani IMAYATUL RA Khairul Azmi Khairul Azmi kusma zayadi Lalu Marzuandi Lalu Marzuandi Lalu Mukhtar Lalu Muktar Lalu Muktar Lalu Usman Ali M Amin Makrup, Lalu Muhamad Salabi Muhammad Fahrudin Alawi Nadia Adawi Hidayatunnisa Ni Nyoman Kencanawati Ni Nyoman Kencanawati Nining Widyah Kusnanik Norhaslin Abu Hassan Rian Zohri Saputra, Elvis Sulkiah Suryansah Zulhaedy, Lalu M