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Journal : Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science

Machine Learning-Based Spatiotemporal Modeling for Detecting Disease Hotspots in Primary Care Data Rachmatika, Rinna; Desyani, Teti; Khoirudin
Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Vol. 1 No. 4 (2025): December: Global Science: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Scienc
Publisher : International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70062/globalscience.v1i4.188

Abstract

Diseases in primary health services exhibit complex spatial-temporal dynamics due to urbanization and population mobility. Conventional surveillance approaches are difficult to capture these patterns adaptively. Machine learning (ML) based on spatio-temporal modeling offers a solution with the ability to detect disease clusters automatically and with high precision. Research Objectives: This research aims to develop a machine learning model to detect disease hotspots from primary service data in Indonesia, with a focus on improving prediction accuracy, interpretability, and relevance of health policies. Methodology: The primary service dataset for 2024 (5,343 entries) was analyzed using three ML models Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Temporal Random Forest (TRF), and Multi-EigenSpot with spatial (village) and temporal (week, month) features. Performance evaluation includes predictive (AUC, F1-score) and spatial (Moran's I, Spatio-Temporal Correlation Index) metrics. Results: The results showed that Multi-EigenSpot achieved the best performance (AUC=0.91; F1=0.86), with the detection of dominant hotspots in Sungai Asam and Beringin Villages. Moran's I value of 0.63 indicates a strong spatial autocorrelation, while STCI=0.57 indicates moderate temporal stability. Conclusions: ML-based spatio-temporal models are effective in identifying hidden disease patterns and have the potential to be integrated into national digital surveillance systems. This approach supports precision public health by providing a scientific basis for real-time location- and time-based intervention policies.
Co-Authors A A Gede Rai Rassi Abdillah, Afiani Agus Abdul Jalil Abdul jalil Achmad Fahmi Respati Achmad Fauzi Achmad Fauzi Achmad Yani Adam, Bani Adella Rosalina Ahmad Arifin Ahmad Darmawan Ahmad Fajri Shiam Ahmad Fikri Zulfikar Ahmad Irkham Ainun, Vivi Aji Saputra Aji Saputra, Aji Akbar, Faris Akmal, Anang Mas Alif Yoga Prasetya Alifiansyah, Roby Alwi, Zulfikar Amelia, Tasya Amirulloh, Yuslifar Khalif Amsyah, Antomy Ananda, Frisca Tri Ananda, Yesica Anang Mas Akmal Andi Lisdiarto Antomy Amsyah Aprizal Suryaman Ardiansyah, M. Virzy ARDIANSYAH, SYAHRUL Arfira Trisna Devi Aries Saifudin Arif Fiansyah Arinda Chintya Sari Atep Taufik Rianto Baehaqi, Reza Anwar Sidiq Baranduda, Keneth Langit Biqirrosyad Biqirrosyad Biqirrosyad, Biqirrosyad Bryan Farriq Reinaldy Cahyono, Yono Cut Fera Inong Safitri Dedy Priyatna Delfi Yuliana Tanu Deny Setiawan Deny Setiawan Devi, Arfira Trisna Dhimas Marwahyu Dhimas Maulana Hadi Didik Syamsianto Dwiardi, Stanislaus Dimas Dwicky Oktavian Widodo Egi Kurnianto Eko Suroso Endar Nirmala Ersa Putri Muharom Fachmi Fahrezi Fahmi Ahmad Fauzi Fajar Agung Nugroho Faris Akbar Fauzi, Fahmi Ahmad Fauziah, Siti Nur Indah Febriansyah, Muhammad Fiansyah, Arif Fikri Fahresi, Daffa Fikri Rahardian Firli Nurdiansyah Fitri Anis Isroriyah Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitriyani Fransisco Fransisco Fransisco, Fransisco Galih Maulana Ismail Gilang Aditya Gozali Yusuf Hadi Gulo, Yarni Gunawan Eka Putra Gymnastiar, Ahmad Raihan Hadi Iswanto Haetami, Muhamad Azi Hairul Ridwan Hanaan Ridho Altamerano hani sephani Harmianto, Dhiya Shufiyyani Haryanto, Galih Haryono, Wasis Haura, Al HENDRI ARDIANSYAH Herdiansyah, Aditya Tri Hibban, Muhammad Ibnu Hilaludin Hilaludin Husaini, Vandy Sadam Imam Wahyu Julianto Indira Novi Yulianti Irkham, Ahmad Irpan Kusyadi Irvansah Satria Pamungkas Ismail, Galih Maulana Jenau, Efrida Jibril, Muhamad Joko Susanto JOKO SUSANTO Juanda, La Judin, Sirat Julianto, Muhammad Rizky Jumadi Jumadi Jumadi Jumadi Junaidi, Muhamad Mardian Junianto, Mochamad Bagoes Satria Kamaludin Kamaludin Kamaludin Kamaludin Khoirudin Kobun, Elisabet Ukung Koswara, Robby Kurnianto, Egi Kurniasari, Sischa Kurniawan, Roby Chairul Anam Kusumawati, Syahvira Luthtiansyah Luthtiansyah Luthtiansyah, Luthtiansyah M. Virzy Ardiansyah Maeylani, Winni Maha Pramudia Maharizal Ilham Farabi Mahmud Arjiansyah, Abiem Marjuki Marjuki Maulana, Nanda Risky Mayudin, Muhammad Meidiaz Satria, Rafly Misbah Syah Anwar Kesuma Jaya Mochamad Hasbani mohadib mohadib Muhamad Azi Haetami Muhamad Diky Oktafian Muhamad Jibril Muhamad Mardian Junaidi Muhammad Afif Muhammad Andinun Muhammad Ibnu Hibban Muhammad Mayudin Muhammad Rizky Julianto Munawaroh Munawaroh Munawaroh Munawaroh Nanda Risky Maulana Nardiono Nardiono Niki Ratama Nisa, Aenun Noris, Shandi Novrizal Egi Sofian Nur Afifah Nur Hidayah Nur Umaya, Sabrina Nurdavicky, Arfian Nurul Asia Saputra Octavia, Indriyani Oktafian, Muhamad Diky Pandu Gumilang Perani Rosyani Pramudia, Maha Pratama, Arnold Agusti Priaji, Sugeng Priyatna, Dedy Putra, Bagas Mahendra Putra, Gunawan Eka Putrawan, Alif Rachmatika, Rinna Raden Wirawan Kukuh Pambudi Rahardian, Fikri Ramdani, Dandi Ramdhani, M. Aryo Redo Ramadhan Chaniago Retno Wulandari Reyhan Said Rianto, Atep Taufik Riyan Wahyu Pratama Rizal Nurhadi Gunawan Rizki Ubaidillah Rizky Subagja Roby Chairul Anam Kurniawan Rosyidah Astari Nur Ryan Putra Ramadhan S Sumarlin Safitri, Cut Fera Inong Said, Reyhan Santoso, Yoni Saputra, Ade Sony Saputra, Herdiansyah Saputra, Nurul Asia Saputra, Ripki Adi Sari, Arinda Chintya Sartika Lina Mulani Satriaji, Arya Rihad Shalahudin, Muhammad Hafizh Shiam, Ahmad Fajri Sholahuddin Sischa Kurniasari Siti Nur Indah Fauziah Sofian, Novrizal Egi Solihin Solihin Sri Mulyati Sri Mulyati Subagja, Rizky Sudrajat, Yuliyandri Sugeng Gunantio Sunardi, Rizki Utama Supriyanto Supriyanto Supriyanto Supriyanto Suryaman, Aprizal Syahrul Al-Rasyid Syahvira Kusumawati syamsiana, Andika Syamsianto, Didik Taufik Surya Hermanto Tresna Wati Viaresty Maharani Vyka Septiani Widodo, Dwicky Oktavian Yani, Achmad Yarni Gulo Yesica Ananda Yohanes Philipus Andersen Yoni Santoso Yudha Eka Saputra Yudi Prasetyo Yulianti Yulianti Yulianti Yulianti Yulianti Yuliyandri Sudrajat Zaisul Muttabi Zulfikar Alwi