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Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan (Journal of Biometrics and Population)
Published by Universitas Airlangga
ISSN : 2302707X     EISSN : 25408828     DOI : -
Core Subject :
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan is a journal that contains articles about the development of statistical methods in the field of health, the application of statistical methods on solving health problems, the development of demography and demography, solving reproductive health problems, solving the problems of maternal and child health as well as the themes surrounding the development of biostatistics and population. This journal is published twice a year in July and December.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 213 Documents
UNDERREPORTING IN INFECTIOUS DISEASE CASES: A TIME SERIES REGRESSION-SIR APPROACH Akpan, Emmanuel Alphonsus; Ikono, Florence Gregory; Udom, Collins F.; Umondak, Uduakobong James; Ikeh, Onyekachukwu Henry; Nyong, Emem Godwin
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.22-33

Abstract

Failure to account for the underreporting of infectious disease cases distorts the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Underreporting creates a false sense of security, allowing the disease to persist or resurge and undermining the effectiveness of public health interventions. This study aims to address underreporting and identify the underlying distribution that best describes the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Nigeria. A Time Series Regression Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (TSIR) model, incorporating Poisson, Gaussian, and Quasi-Poisson distributions with various link functions, was applied to weekly cumulative COVID-19 case data. This dataset spans from February 28, 2020, to July 3, 2022, and includes 110 weekly records. It was sourced from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) through publicly available weekly epidemiological reports. Microsoft Office Excel 2016 was utilized to collate the database, and the NCDC’s online platform served as the primary data source. The data were divided into two sets: training data from February 28, 2020, to March 20, 2022, comprising 100 cases for modeling TSIR, and testing data from March 27, 2022, to July 3, 2022, encompassing 10 weekly cases for model performance evaluation. These research findings revealed that the reporting rate of COVID-19 data under study is about 35%, indicating underreporting. When accounting for underreporting, the transmission rate was reduced by approximately 0.15. The quasi-Poisson distribution with the log function was the best at describing the distribution of the incidence cases. The study established that the COVID-19 incidence cases in Nigeria are underreported and follow a quasi-Poisson distribution.
ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF PERSONAL SAFETY PRACTICES, ORGANIZATION AND RESPONSES PERCEIVED BY HEALTH WORKERS ON HOW TO MANAGE THE RISK OF COVID-19 Dhamanti, Inge; Muhamad, Rosediani; Sari, Luckyta Ayu Puspita
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.56-65

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare workers were required to implement safety practices to protect themselves from high transmission risks. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of personal safety practices, organizational practices, and perceived responses by healthcare workers on how they manage COVID-19 risks. This study is an analytical research using a cross-sectional method. The research instrument used was an online questionnaire distributed in June 2022. The inclusion criteria were healthcare workers serving as frontliners at Community Health Centers (Puskesmas) and Government or Teaching Hospitals in Surabaya City, with a minimum of three months of work experience during the pandemic (2020–2021). A total of 221 respondents participated in the study. The data were analyzed using multiple regression tests to examine the effect of independent variables (perceptions of personal safety practices, organizational practices, and perceived responses related to COVID-19) on the dependent variable (ways of managing COVID-19 risks). The majority of respondents were female (85.5%); 76.5% were married; 88.7% worked at Puskesmas, with 48.4% of them being accredited with full status, and 11.3% worked at hospitals, with 8.1% of those hospitals also fully accredited. This study found that personal safety practices (p = 0.000) and perceived responses (p = 0.025) had a significant effect on how healthcare workers managed COVID-19 risks. Meanwhile, organizational safety practices did not significantly affect risk management. Healthcare facilities need to provide safety training and psychosocial support to enhance healthcare workers’ preparedness and resilience during crises.
SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF ANTENATAL CARE AND LABOUR OF PREGNANT WOMAN IN PRIMARY CARE CENTERS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN BLITAR CITY Devy, Shrimarti Rukmini; Ernawaty, Ernawaty; Sulistyorini, Yuly
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.78-86

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted pregnant women's access to health services, including antenatal care (ANC) visits and the choice of delivery place. This study aims to analyse the factors influencing pregnant women's behavior regarding ANC visits and delivery place selection in Blitar City during the pandemic. This research employed a quantitative method with a cross-sectional design. Data were collected using questionnaires administered to pregnant women in Blitar City who met the inclusion criteria. Data analysis involved statistical tests to identify the relationships between independent variables (maternal knowledge, maternal attitudes, perceptions of healthcare workers, family perceptions, and information availability) and dependent variables (ANC visit behaviour and delivery place selection). The results showed that maternal knowledge and perceptions of healthcare workers significantly influenced ANC visit behaviour, whereas maternal attitudes, family perceptions, and information availability did not show significant effects. Conversely, in delivery place selection behaviour, maternal attitudes, family perceptions, and information availability were significant factors, while maternal knowledge and healthcare workers' perceptions were not. It is concluded that individual and social factors play important roles in determining pregnant women's behaviour during a health crisis. Interventions aimed at improving health education, family support, and access to accurate information are essential to strengthen maternal health services during the pandemic.
DRIVING FORCES OF INTERNATIONAL LABOR MIGRATION: A STUDY ON INDONESIAN PROSPECTIVE MIGRANT WORKERS Herdiana, Ike; Artaria, Myrtati Dyah; Alaydrus, Sayf Muhammad; Suen, Mein-Woei
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.99-113

Abstract

International migration concerns the mobilization of individuals from one country to another. The intention of a certain group to participate in an international migration can be understood through various efforts, depending on the methods employed, frameworks used, populations observed, and variables considered. This study tried to identify various factors that influence the decision of prospective migrant workers to migrate out of Indonesia. This quantitative study used a survey method, with the approval of the Department of Manpower and Transmigration of East Java. This study involved 110 prospective migrant workers who filled out open-ended questionnaires. Descriptive analysis of the survey results was reported in the form of tabulations and percentages. The results show that demographic characteristics, such as sex, age, marital status, and destination, contribute to the decision to migrate abroad. Additionally, friends and family who were already working in the destination country were a significant influence. Conclusively, the push and pull factors have three themes, which are personal, social, and economic factors. Various combinations of these factors motivate prospective migrant workers to seek a better fate abroad. This research might help the government and non-governmental organizations to aid prospective migrant workers in managing their expectations and working to achieve their dreams through quality education and skills training for increased productivity.
PARENTING BEHAVIOUR AND STUNTING PREVENTION IN SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE, INDONESIA Azis, Rahmawati; Akmal, Akmal; Rahayu, Irma; Masriadi, Masriadi; Alif, Adimas Buyar; Samsidarwati, Besse
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i1.2025.66-77

Abstract

Stunting in children is influenced not only by food availability but also by various factors such as family caregiving practices, which in many cases remain suboptimal. There are still families who have not practiced optimal parenting patterns. This study aims to determine family parenting behavior and analyze factors that can support increased efforts to prevent stunting in toddlers. The study used a quantitative approach with a survey method, the population was all families with toddlers in South Sulawesi Province and 260 families as samples. The data were processed and analyzed through three stages: univariate analysis to describe the characteristics of the variables, bivariate analysis using the Chi-square statistical test (with Yates’ correction) to see the relationship between variables, and multivariate analysis using a binary logistic regression model. The study's results showed a positive relationship between parenting behavior and parenting knowledge, environmental sanitation knowledge, nutritional knowledge, parenting attitudes, parenting motivation, family planning, and culture  (p<0.05). Meanwhile, the variables of environmental health knowledge and environmental sanitation attitudes did not show a significant relationship (p>0.05). The main strategies for interventions to improve family parenting behavior in efforts to prevent stunting are culture (B=2.492;p=0.000), environmental sanitation knowledge (B=1.936;p=0.000), family planning (B=1.429;p=0.030), and parenting attitudes (B=1.003;p=0.000). Recommendations include involving local stakeholders, including community leaders, religious leaders, and regional organizations in supporting family parenting efforts in controlling stunting through increasing environmental sanitation knowledge, family planning, and positive parenting attitudes based on local wisdom.
TWO DECADES OF CHANGE IN ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE BURDEN IN INDONESIA BASED ON RISK FACTORS Safaryna, Alifia Merza; Artanti, Kurnia Dwi; Indriani, Diah
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i2.2025.114-124

Abstract

The burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD), measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), has significantly increased in Indonesia over the past two decades, indicating that current policies and programs have not been fully effective. This study aimed to analyze changes in the burden of IHD and its associated risk factors from 2002 to 2021 across 34 provinces in Indonesia, using secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. This cross-sectional analytical study used IHD-related DALYs as the dependent variable, and independent variables included non-optimal temperature, low physical activity, tobacco use, risky dietary patterns, air pollution, obesity, hypertension, high LDL cholesterol, and high fasting glucose. Descriptive statistics and linear regression were used, with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to reduce multicollinearity. Separate regressions were conducted for 2002 and 2021 to assess changes over time. The results showed a 10.5% increase in IHD-related DALYs, from 2,753.87 per 100,000 population in 2002 to 3,043.08 in 2021. Hypertension emerged as the leading risk factor, followed by risky dietary patterns. Tobacco use and a principal component (low physical activity, risky dietary patterns, obesity, high LDL cholesterol, hypertension, and high fasting glucose) significantly contributed to the burden of IHD in both years. Environmental factors such as non-optimal temperature and air pollution did not show significant effects. Health programs must be strengthened with a focus on seven key risk factors contributing to IHD-related DALYs, especially modifiable ones like low physical activity, risky dietary patterns, and tobacco use to reduce IHD burden in Indonesia.
ASSOCIATED FACTORS OF PREECLAMPSIA AMONG PREGNANT WOMEN IN KOKOP DISTRICT, BANGKALAN REGENCY Rahmah, Azra Razita; Zainiyah, Zakkiyatus; Susanti, Eny; Wulandari, Novita; Dewangga, Angelinasyarga Sutera; Mohammad Amin
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i2.2025.125-133

Abstract

Hypertension complications associated with pregnancy affects approximately 10% of pregnancies and significantly contributes to maternal and perinatal mortality. The incidence of preeclampsia in Indonesia is considerably high, affecting 5,3% of cases per year. Preeclampsia and eclampsia rank fourth as the highest obstetric complication in East Java Province, with a percentage of around 8.11%. The frequency of preeclampsia in Bangkalan has ranked first among districts in Madura with the most cases found in Kokop District, as many as 132 cases. This study was conducted to analyze the risk factors that influence the incidence of preeclampsia in pregnant women in Kokop District, Bangkalan Regency. A cross-sectional design study was used, with chi-square test and logistic regression analysis. The sample obtained as many as 46 pregnant women who had been selected using a simple random sampling technique. Risk factors for Body Mass Index (BMI) categorized as obesity (p = 0.002; OR = 24.064; 95% CI 3.345 - 173.094) and maternal age (p = 0.009; OR = 14.321; 95% CI 1.930 - 106, 234) were considered to have the most partial in influencing the occurrence of preeclampsia in pregnant women. These two risk factors associated with preeclampsia are also influenced by the local traditions and cultural practices of the Kokop District community.
REPRODUCTIVE INTENTION AMONG URBAN YOUNG WOMEN: THE INTERPLAY OF PERCEIVED ANOMIE, ECOLOGICAL VALUES, AND READINESS FOR FAMILY LIFE Adhitiah, Eka Fitriany Putri; Sunarti, Euis; Muflikahti, Istiqlaliyah
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The decline in reproductive intention among urban young women, as reflected in Indonesia’s Total Fertility Rate decreasing to 1.96 in 2024, illustrates a broader demographic transition. This phenomenon necessitates a conceptual shift beyond demographic explanations, urging the inclusion of sociopsychological dimensions in understanding reproductive intentions. This study aims to analyze the influence of perceived anomie, ecological attitudes, and family readiness on reproductive intention. A survey was conducted among 336 young women in the Greater Jakarta area (Jabodetabek) using a voluntary sampling approach and analyzed with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The findings reveal that reproductive intention is relatively low. Family readiness was found to strengthen reproductive intention, whereas higher levels of perceived anomie and ecological attitudes reduced it. Conversely, perceived anomie increased ecological attitudes, and ecological attitudes positively influenced family readiness. These findings suggest that women with a high level of ecological awareness tend to demonstrate readiness for long-term relationships, yet simultaneously develop hesitancy toward reproductive decisions in the context of perceived ecological crisis and anomie. Strengthening interventions that support family readiness among young women is essential, particularly through approaches that are responsive to social uncertainty and integrative of sustainability values in reproductive planning processes.
ADOLESCENT PARTICIPATION IN YOUTH INFORMATION AND COUNSELLING CENTRE IMPROVES BETTER KNOWLEDGE ON HIV AIDS AND EARLY MARRIAGE PREVENTION Anggraeni, Ike; Nurrachmawati, Annisa; Triani Putri, Irda
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i2.2025.134-145

Abstract

Youth Information and Counseling Centers (YICC) im to enhance adolescents’ reproductive health knowledge through peer-based education. Despite their significance, the effectiveness of such programs remains inadequately evaluated, especially in Indonesia, where adolescent reproductive health challenges, such as early marriage and HIV/AIDS, persist. This study explores the relationship between YICC participation and adolescents’ knowledge of HIV/AIDS and early marriage prevention in East Kalimantan. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 830 adolescents aged 10-24 using a validated online questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, Kruskal-Wallis tests, ANCOVA, and logistic regression were employed to analyze knowledge differences and predictors, controlling for sociodemographic factors. Results revealed that 71.8% of adolescents were aware of YICC, yet only 38.2% participated in its activities, and 21.4% were formal members. YICC participants showed significantly greater knowledge of HIV/AIDS and the ideal marriage age (p < 0.01), though no significant differences were found in attitudinal scores. ANCOVA indicated that YICC participation was an important predictor of knowledge, even after adjusting for parental education, internet access, and residence. Logistic regression further showed that YICC participants were 1.9 times more likely to possess high knowledge compared to non-participants (AOR = 1.90; 95% CI: 1.30-2.70; p = 0.001). Key predictors of higher knowledge included parental education, internet access, and urban residence. These findings highlight the importance of increasing YICC participation and integrating digital and school-based strategies to enhance adolescent reproductive health education.
MODELING OF LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS IN BALIKPAPAN USING THE LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL Ginoga, Verri; Julianto, Baskoro Tri
Jurnal Biometrika dan Kependudukan Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): JURNAL BIOMETRIKA DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jbk.v14i2.2025.158-166

Abstract

Population growth and labor force dynamics become important issues in development planning, especially in the buffer zone of the National Capital City (IKN) such as Balikpapan City. This study aims to model the dynamics of labor market in Balikpapan City using Verhulst logistic growth model approach. The data used includes the number of labor force and non-labor force in the period of 2007 to 2023, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of East Kalimantan Province. The modeling process is conducted independently to ensure analytical clarity between labor force and non-labor force groups to obtain a more accurate projection. The results of the analysis show that the average population of the labor force is 289,631 people with a growth rate of 7.17%, while the non-labor force has an average of 156,643 people with a growth rate of 4.44%. Model validation showed a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.87 for the labor force and 0.88 for the non-labor force, indicating a good model fit. The difference in growth rate reflects the potential improvement of labor market condition in Balikpapan City. The findings of this study are expected to be a reference for the government and policy makers in formulating strategies for improving the quality of human resources and inclusive and sustainable employment planning in the buffer zone of IKN.