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Kartini, Alif Yuanita
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Comparison of Decomposition and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods to Improve Rice Production Forecasting in East Java Province Nur Aisyatul Lathifah; Denny Nurdiansyah; Alif Yuanita Kartini
Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30736/voj.v7i1.1119

Abstract

This study forecasts rice production in East Java using Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters) and Decomposition. Data includes rice production in dry milled grain (GKG) from January 2018 until December 2023, sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java. The analysis identifies the Holt-Winters Multiplicative model as the most effective, with the lowest error values: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.1452, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 0.1078, and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0286 during training, and MAPE of 0.1974, MAD of 0.1909, and MSE of 0.0858 during testing. The Holt-Winters Multiplicative model is recommended for future rice production predictions, providing reliable method for accurate forecasting, and aiding in future rice demand planning in East Java.
Co-Authors Abdul Manaf Jamiluddin Afril Efan Pajri Ahmad Tauchid Aini, Siti Azizah Ali Hamdan Arifat, Muhammad Ayuni, Intan Sri Barata, Mula Bintari Anggi Dwi Sugiarti Deby Fakhriyana, Deby Denny Nurdiansyah Desinta, Yessi Farisa Devy Wulandari Dewi Niswatul Fithriyah Dinda Intan Pramesti Edi Setyanto Fidiya, Karisma Risma Firdaus, Saida Zahrotul Hamidatun Nihayah Huda, Tisa Dwi Julianti Ifa Afiana Irsyada, Rahmat Jauhar Vikri, Muhammad Jauhara Rana Budiani, Jauhara Rana Karisma Risma Fidiya Khoirina, Jami’atul Khoirul Wafa Laelatul Nur Ummah Lathifah, Nur Aisyatul M Teguh Deddy Winarko Miftahul Janah Miftahul Janah, Miftahul Moch Nur Faizin Mochamad Nizar Palefi Ma’ady Muhammad Anshori Muhammad Ishlahuddin Nilna Himawati Ningtiyas, Putri Ayu Nita Cahyani Nur Aisyatul Lathifah Nur Mahmudah Nur Mahmudah Priadana, Benny Widya Puji Aning Nur Nadhifah Putri Utami, Putri Saeful Anwar Sri Rahayu Sufiandi, Enrico Winarko, M Teguh Deddy Yogi Prana Izza Yuliana, Ummi Agustin Yunita Dwi Setyoningsih Yunita Dwi Setyoningsih Zakki Alawi