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All Journal Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Jambura Journal of Mathematics MONSU'ANI TANO Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Matematika UNAND Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Jurnal Diferensial MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Jurnal Pengabdian Papua Trigonometri: Jurnal Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Hasan S. Panigoro
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Communication in Biomathematical Sciences

 1 
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Predator-Prey Model with Infectious Diseases in Prey Panigoro, Hasan S.; Suryanto, Agus; Kusumahwinahyu, Wuryansari Muharini; Darti, Isnani
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol 2, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2363.045 KB) | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.2.4

Abstract

In this paper, a dynamical analysis of a fractional-order predator-prey model with infectious diseases in prey is performed. First, we prove the existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solution. We also show that the model has at most five equilibrium points, namely the origin, the infected prey and predator extinction point, the infected prey extinction point, the predator extinction point, and the co-existence point. For the first four equilibrium points, we show that the local stability properties of the fractional-order system are the same as the first-order system, but for the co-existence point, we have different local stability properties.We also present the global stability of each equilibrium points except for the origin point. We observe an interesting phenomenon, namely the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation around the co-existence equilibrium point driven by the order of fractional derivative. Moreover, we show some numerical simulations based on a predictor-corrector scheme to illustrate the result of our dynamical analysis.
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Predator-Prey Model with Infectious Diseases in Prey Hasan S. Panigoro; Agus Suryanto; Wuryansari Muharini Kusumahwinahyu; Isnani Darti
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 2 No. 2 (2019)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2019.2.2.4

Abstract

In this paper, a dynamical analysis of a fractional-order predator-prey model with infectious diseases in prey is performed. First, we prove the existence, uniqueness, non-negativity, and boundedness of the solution. We also show that the model has at most five equilibrium points, namely the origin, the infected prey and predator extinction point, the infected prey extinction point, the predator extinction point, and the co-existence point. For the first four equilibrium points, we show that the local stability properties of the fractional-order system are the same as the first-order system, but for the co-existence point, we have different local stability properties.We also present the global stability of each equilibrium points except for the origin point. We observe an interesting phenomenon, namely the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation around the co-existence equilibrium point driven by the order of fractional derivative. Moreover, we show some numerical simulations based on a predictor-corrector scheme to illustrate the result of our dynamical analysis.
Forecasting COVID-19 Epidemic in Spain and Italy Using A Generalized Richards Model with Quantified Uncertainty Isnani Darti; Agus Suryanto; Hasan S. Panigoro; Hadi Susanto
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 3 No. 2 (2020)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2020.3.2.1

Abstract

The Richards model and its generalized version are deterministic models that are often implemented to fit and forecast the cumulative number of infective cases in an epidemic outbreak. In this paper we employ a generalized Richards model to predict the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Spain and Italy, based on available epidemiological data. To quantify uncertainty in the parameter estimation, we use a parametric bootstrapping approach to construct a 95% confidence interval estimation for the parameter model. Here we assume that the time series data follow a Poisson distribution. It is found that the 95% confidence interval of each parameter becomes narrow with the increasing number of data. All in all, the model predicts daily new cases of COVID-19 reasonably well during calibration periods. However, the model fails to produce good forecasts when the amount of data used for parameter estimations is not sufficient. Based on our parameter estimates, it is found that the early stages of COVID-19 epidemic, both in Spain and in Italy, followed an almost exponentially growth. The epidemic peak in Spain and Italy is respectively on 2 April 2020 and 28 March 2020. The final sizes of cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in Spain and Italy are forecasted to be at 293220 and 237010, respectively.
Modeling of Abstinence Behavior on the Electoral Lists with Awareness Campaigns and Argumentative Schemes Beay, Lazarus Kalvein; Panigoro, Hasan S.; Rahmi, Emli; Savitri, Dian
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2024.7.2.4

Abstract

The most reasonable way to promote individual abstinence and increase voter turnout is through campaign interventions and schemes. Our paper introduces a deterministic model that captures the dynamics of citizens exercising their right to vote and the detrimental effect of abstainers on potential voters. The existence, basic reproductive number (R0) and local stability of abstinence behavior equilibrium points are determined by certain necessary conditions. The global stability of the abstaining-free point and abstaining point is achieved through the use of suitable Lyapunov functions. In addition, a sensitivity analysis of R0 was also performed. Moreover, we offer an ideal plan for an awareness program that supports politicians and officials in enhancing the registration rate of citizens on electoral lists with a level of effort. Our investigation reveals that utilizing the combination of an awareness campaign and argumentation schemes as time-dependent interventions drastically reduces abstention rates and greatly increases voter participation. By raising the values of awareness and registration rates, we can observe a decline in the basic reproductive number (R0). Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations.
Co-Authors Abubakar, Agung Sucipto Agus Suryanto Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Ajiboye, Aminat Olabisi Amelia Tri Rahma Sidik Apon Ismail Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi, Asriadi Balogun, Ghaniyyat Bolanle Beay, Lazarus Kalvein Cabelita Husuna Darti, Isnani Datu, Pratiwi Ardin Daud, Sriwati M. Dewi Rahmawaty Isa DIAN SAVITRI Dian Savitri Djihad Wungguli Femy Mahmud Sahami G. S. Mahapatra Gani, Friansyah Hadi Susanto Hamani, Mohamad Taufik Harto Malik Hidajati, Ninik Wahju Ismail Djakaria Isnani Darti Isnani Darti Isran K Hasan K. Nasib, Salmun Kai, Ferawati Kasim, Ranan Kusumahwinahyu, Wuryansari Muharini La Ode Nashar Lahay, Anatasya Lailany Yahya Lakoro, Tiara Lamuda, Zulfatra Lanto Ningrayati Amali LIMALO, SRI AGUSTIN Mahmud, Sri Lestari Nadhilah, Farhah Nisky I. Yahya NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Novianita Achmad Nurafni, Firda Nurdia Walangadi Nurhayati Abbas Nurmardia Abdussamad, Siti Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Oguntolu, Festus Abiodun Omede, Benjamin Idoko P. K. Santra Pakaya, Revandi S. Perry Zakaria Peter, Olumuyiwa James Rahmi, Emli Rauf, Jayanti Resmawan Resmawan Salmun K. Nasib Sarson W DJ Pomalato Sidik, Amelia Tri Rahma Siraj, Suaib A Suaib A. Siraj suma, reza ardiansyah Suryanto, Agus Wungguli, Djihad Wuryansari Muharini Kusumahwinahyu Yahya, Nisky Imansyah Yayu Indriati Arifin