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Model Matematika SVEIAR Penularan Covid-19 di Indonesia dengan Intervensi Vaksinasi dan Tradisi Mudik Idayani, Darsih; Tarigan, Asmara Iriani; Kharis, Selly Anastassia Amellia; Kurniawati, Heny
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 1 April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i1.30231

Abstract

In early 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic started in China, rapidly spreading across the globe, including Indonesia. Indonesian society is known for its diversity and complexity, making it difficult to predict trends in the number of infected, deceased, and recovered individuals. This study develops a Covid-19 transmission epidemic model, called SV EIAR, which accounts for interventions such as vaccination and the mudik tradition (the practice of returning to hometowns during Eid). In this model, the susceptible (S) compartment refers to the subpopulation of individuals who are susceptible to the virus, while vaccinated (V) represents those who have been vaccinated twice. The exposed (E) compartment includes individuals who are infected but still in the incubation period and unable to spread the virus. Infection (I) refers to individuals who are symptomatic, and asymptomatic (A) includes those who are infected but show no symptoms. Lastly, the recover (R) compartment represents individuals who have recovered from the infection. The analysis of the model involves identifying the reproduction number, estimating the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, and analyzing their stability. Numerical simulations were carried out using Covid-19 transmission data from Indonesia to predict the trends of the infected and asymptomatic populations. The results suggest that the dynamics of Covid-19 cases are semi-stable in the susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and asymptomatic (A) compartments, meaning that these populations will increase over time. In a disease-free situation, the susceptible population (S) remains stable at a certain value, while other populations are stable at nearly zero. The susceptible population in the disease-free state is larger than during an epidemic, while other populations are smaller in the disease-free state compared to the epidemic. Additionally, the study found that vaccination can help reduce the transmission of Covid-19, while the practice of mudik can increase the spread of the virus.
Optimization of Public Health Centers Location in Bandar Lampung Using Integer Linear Programming Efiyanti, Rizka; Idayani, Darsih
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 9 No 3 (2025): G-Tech, Vol. 9 No. 3 July 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/g-tech.v9i3.7302

Abstract

Public health centers are the primary healthcare services that play an essential role in public health services. Therefore, adequate facilities are needed to ensure that every individual receives proper healthcare services. Bandar Lampung City, the capital of Lampung Province, has a population of approximately 1,100,109 people. According to data from BPS (Statistics Indonesia), Bandar Lampung has a high life expectancy rate in Lampung, reaching 74.53%. To further improve this percentage, efforts are being made to ensure the equitable distribution of healthcare facilities across all regions of Bandar Lampung. This study aims to determine the optimal locations and number of public health centers in Bandar Lampung. Optimization is carried out using integer linear programming with the objective function of minimizing the number of public health centers while considering travel time and the maximum patient capacity each public health center can accommodate. The optimization model is formulated based on the set covering problem model and solved using the branch and bound method with LINGO software. The results indicate that the optimal number of public health centers needed to achieve an equitable distribution in Bandar Lampung is 43, covering 20 districts. This number is expected to fulfill the goal of ensuring equitable access to healthcare services through public health centers in Bandar Lampung.
A SIAR Model Approach to the Impact of Mudik Tradition on Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia Idayani, Darsih; Tarigan, Asmara Iriani; Kharis, Selly Anastassia Amellia; Kurniawati, Heny
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 9 No 3 (2025): G-Tech, Vol. 9 No. 3 July 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/g-tech.v9i3.7308

Abstract

In Indonesia, on March 2, 2020, the government announced the first case of Covid-19. Preventing the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia is challenging because the people are very diverse, and not everyone has the same understanding of the transmission of COVID-19. In addition, the Indonesians has mudik tradition, going home yearly on Eid al-Fitr. This study developed an epidemic model of Covid-19 spread SIAR by adding migration factors to represent the mudik tradition. The disease-free equilibrium point, the endemic equilibrium point, and its stability were determined. Numerical simulations were done using Covid-19 transmission data to analyze the trend of symptomatic and asymptomatic infected subpopulations. The results show that the dynamic characteristics of Covid-19 cases were semi-stable in compartments S, I, and A. This condition means that S, I, and A will rise at a certain time. In a disease-free situation, the susceptible subpopulation S is stable at a certain value. At the same time, other subpopulations are stable at almost zero and at zero. The susceptible subpopulation S in a disease-free situation is larger than during an epidemic. The number of people in disease-free conditions is smaller than those in epidemic conditions. In addition, migration at a certain level can increase the spread of Covid-19.