Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
3.944
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Media Statistika SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo Jurnal Varian Inferensi ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya ADMA: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Indonesian Journal of Fundamental Sciences SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Aswi, Aswi
Unknown Affiliation
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Social Sciences Other

Published : 30 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 5 Documents
Search
Journal : SAINSMAT

 1 
Modeling Factors Influencing Covid-19 Cases in South Sulawesi Using Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Localised Yassar, La Ode Salman; Shanty, Meyrna Vidya; Mahadtir, Muhamad; Aswi, Aswi; Annas, Suwardi
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 13, No 1 (2024): Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat131606362024

Abstract

South Sulawesi Province is listed as the province with the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the Sulawes island. Research on Covid-19 modeling has been carried out by many researchers, but until now, there has been no research using the Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive Localized model which involves a combination of factors such as distance to the provincial capital, population density, and the number of elderly people in each district in South Sulawesi Province. The aim of this research is to get the best Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive Localized model. The best model is based on four criteria, namely: Deviance Information Criteria, Watanabe Akaike Information Criteria, residuals from Modified Moran's I, and the number of areas included in a group. It was found that model with G=3 by including population density covariates was the best model. A significant factor influencing the increase in Covid-19 cases is the population density factor which has a positive effect. This shows that the more densely populated an area is, the greater the chance of being infected with Covid-19. Makassar has the highest relative risk value for Covid-19 followed by Toraja district and Pare-Pare City. Meanwhile, Bone district has the lowest relative risk value for Covid-19, followed by Wajo district and Enrekang district.
Statistical Modeling and Factors Influencing School Dropout in Indonesia: A Review Shanty, Meyrna Vidya; Mahadtir, Muhamad; Awaluddin, Awaluddin; Natalia, Derliani; Ramadani, Reski Aulia; Aswi, Aswi
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 13, No 1 (2024): Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat131608032024

Abstract

The education enrollment rate is crucial for Indonesia to improve its human resources and sustain its economic development. In reality, the dropout student rate is still relatively high. Previous research has highlighted several factors and models related to the dropout student rate in Indonesia. The purpose of the study is to identify the most popular statistical modeling and factors influencing school dropout in Indonesia. We searched in February 2023 using ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Google Scholar. The search was restricted to refereed journal articles published in English from January 2013 to December 2022. This study underwent four stages: identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion. The study finds that the most popular statistical modeling is the Logistic Regression Model, and the most significant factor increasing the school dropout rate in Indonesia is family and economic factors. The findings suggest that children who were not attending school came from families with lower levels of education. The well-being of these families was directly linked to their children's educational status. The primary reasons for young students dropping out of elementary and junior schools include an inability to pay school fees and a desire to work on farms to support their parents.
Intervention Analysis In Time Series Data For Forecasting Bbri Stock Prices Mangkona, Andi Ilham Azhar; Aswi, Aswi; Ruliana, Ruliana
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 1 (2025): Maret
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat141670452025

Abstract

Intervention model analysis is a statistical technique used to assess the impact of an intervention event, caused by internal or external factors, on a time series dataset. The primary goal of this analysis is to quantify the magnitude and duration of the effects on the time series. Intervention models are typically divided into two types: the step function and the pulse function. The step function represents an intervention event with a long-term influence, while the pulse function captures the effects of an intervention within a specific time span. This study examines the stock price data of BBRI from March 2017 to June 2020, with the intervention point identified as the onset of COVID-19 in Indonesia, specifically during the first week of March (t = 155). ARIMA modeling was applied to pre-intervention data to determine the order of intervention (b, s, r). The analysis concluded that the best-fitting model was ARIMA (2, 1, 0), with the intervention order characterized by a step function where b = 0, s = 2, and r = 0. The accuracy of the forecasting results was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which yielded a value of 8.48%.
Comparison Of Bayesian Spatial Car Models For Estimating The Risk Of Diarrhea Cases In Makassar City Bakri, Nurul Aulya; Yudi, Wanda; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat, Rahmat
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142774752025

Abstract

Diarrhea continues to pose a significant public health challenge in Makassar City, with incidence varying across sub-districts. Mapping diarrhea risk is essential for public health planning, as it helps identify high-risk areas and allocate resources efficiently. Accurate spatial risk assessment supports targeted interventions and informs evidence-based health policies. This study aimed to identify areas with high and low relative risks (RR) of diarrhea cases using Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models, specifically the Besag–York–Mollié (BYM) and Leroux approaches. The analysis was based on case data from 15 sub-districts in Makassar City in 2023. Model performance was assessed using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC). The CAR-Leroux model with an Inverse Gamma (IG) hyperprior (0.5; 0.0005) was identified as the best-fitting model, providing the most reliable estimation of relative risk. Kepulauan Sangkarrang exhibited the highest RR, indicating a markedly elevated risk of diarrhea relative to the city average, while Biringkanaya District showed the lowest RR, reflecting a substantially lower risk compared to the average.Keywords: Bayesian spasial models, CAR BYM, CAR Leroux, Diarrhea, Relative risk.
Bayesian Spatio Temporal Car Localized Model For Mapping The Relative Risk Of AIDS In South Sulawesi Province Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi; Aswi, Aswi; Annas, Suwarni
Sainsmat : Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol 14, No 2 (2025): September
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/sainsmat142776802025

Abstract

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Indonesia, with South Sulawesi showing a marked rise in cases from 2022 to 2024. This study aims to estimate and visualize the relative risk of AIDS across 24 districts and municipalities in the province by incorporating population density as a spatial covariate. Data were obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. A Bayesian Localised Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) spatio-temporal framework was applied to account for both spatial dependence and temporal variation. Model selection was guided by the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and the Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), with the best-fitting model identified at G = 3 using an Inverse-Gamma (1; 0.01) prior. The analysis revealed that population density had a significant positive association with AIDS incidence. Areas with higher density exhibited elevated relative risk values, particularly Makassar City (RR = 1.95) and Gowa Regency (RR = 1.82), whereas the lowest risks were found in Selayar (RR = 0.41) and East Luwu (RR = 0.45). These findings indicate distinct spatial clustering patterns and underscore the need for geographically focused intervention policies.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahmat Abidin, Muh. Zulkifli Abidin, Muhammad Rais Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwarni Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Assagaf, Said Fachry Awaluddin Awaluddin Awi Dassa, Awi Awi, Awi Bakri, Nurul Aulya Cramb, Susanna Diana Eka Pratiwi Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fajar Arwadi Folorunso, Serifat Adedamola Haekal, Muh. Fahri Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Hidayat , Rahmat Hisyam Ihsan Ikhwana, Nur Isnaini, Wulan Maulia Lalu Ramzy Rahmanda M. Miftach Fakhri Mahadtir, Muhamad Mangkona, Andi Ilham Azhar Mar'ah, Zakiyah Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Fahmuddin Muttaqin, Imam Akbar Natalia, Derliani Novianti, Andi Rima Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Nurhilaliyah, Nurhilaliyah Nurwan, Nurwan Oktaviana Oktaviana Palarungi, Andi Gagah Poerwanto, Bobby Poewanto, Bobby Putri Ananda, Elma Yulia Putri, Siti Choiratun Aisyah Putri, Siti Choirotun Aisyah Rahmat Hidayat Rais, Zulkifli Ramadani, Reski Aulia Risma Mastory Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana S, Muhammad Fahmuddin Saleh, Andi Rahmat Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Sudarmin Sudarmin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna, Sukarna Sulistiawaty Sulistiawaty, Sulistiawaty Suwardi Annas Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi Vivianti Wahidah Sanusi Yassar, La Ode Salman Yudi, Wanda Yunus, Sitti Rahma