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All Journal JPMS (Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Sains) dCartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Gaussian CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Didaktik Matematika Jurnal Karya Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Daya Matematis PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA HISTOGRAM: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika AL ISHLAH Jurnal Pendidikan JURNAL PENDIDIKAN GLASSER BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jambura Journal of Mathematics Laplace : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Dikmas: Jurnal Pendidikan Masyarakat dan Pengabdian MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) d'Cartesian: Jurnal Matematika dan Aplikasi
Ismail Djakaria
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Perbandingan FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur dan Saxena Easo Dalam Meramalkan Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Di Bali Ulopo, Asrul S; Djakaria, Ismail; Nashar, La Ode; Hasan, Isran K; Asriadi, Asriadi
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 4, No 5 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v4i5.33304

Abstract

Provinsi Bali merupakan destinasi wisata utama di Indonesia yang setiap tahunnya menarik jutaan wisatawan mancanegara. Kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Provinsi Bali Januari sampai Juli 2024 menyambut kedatangan 3.538.899 wisatawan mancanegara, menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan sebesar 22,18% dibandingkan periode yang sama pada tahun sebelumnya. Peningkatan jumlah kunjungan tersebut menjadi indikator penting dalam pengembangan sektor pariwisata sekaligus penopang utama perekonomian daerah. Oleh karena itu, peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Bali menjadi langkah strategis untuk mendukung perencanaan dan pengambilan kebijakan yang efektif serta pengelolaan destinasi yang berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan akurasi metode Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur dan Fuzzy Time Series Saxena Easo dalam meramalkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara di Bali. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik selama periode Januari 2005 hingga Desember 2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa FTS Ruey Chyn Tsaur memiliki tingkat akurasi yang lebih tinggi dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 5,544%, dibandingkan dengan FTS Saxena Easo yang menghasilkan MAPE sebesar 8,9256%. Kedua metode termasuk dalam kategori sangat akurat karena nilai MAPE yang diperoleh berada di bawah 10%. Evaluasi model terbaik menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan tersebut menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 6,811%.
Penerapan metode SARIMAX dalam meramalkan produksi ikan Nike di provinsi Gorontalo Djibran, Fahrudin; Djakaria, Ismail; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka
PYTHAGORAS : Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Vol 14, No 1 (2025): PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS RIAU KEPULAUAN, BATAM, INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33373/pyth.v14i1.7512

Abstract

Produksi ikan nike (Awaous Welanocephalus) di Gorontalo mengalami penurunan rata-rata 14 ton per tahun dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Analisis data tahun 2020–2021 menunjukkan tren penurunan produksi yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor eksternal seperti curah hujan, degradasi vegetasi bantaran sungai, peningkatan aktivitas pembangunan di muara, serta eksploitasi sumber daya seperti penambangan pasir dan batu. Kondisi ini mengancam keberlanjutan sumber daya ikan nike, terutama karena belum adanya upaya budidaya dan masih bergantung pada hasil tangkapan alam. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan produksi ikan nike di Provinsi Gorontalo menggunakan metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) dengan mempertimbangkan curah hujan sebagai variabel eksternal. Data yang digunakan mencakup produksi ikan nike dan curah hujan dari tahun 2020 hingga 2024 yang diperoleh dari Dinas Kelautan dan Perikanan serta Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Analisis dilakukan melalui uji stasioneritas data, pemodelan SARIMAX, serta evaluasi akurasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi ikan nike memiliki pola musiman yang dipengaruhi oleh curah hujan, dengan model SARIMAX(1,2,1)(0,0,1)12 memberikan hasil peramalan yang akurat dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 16,66%. Model ini dapat digunakan sebagai alat bantu dalam pengelolaan sumber daya perikanan yang berkelanjutan di Gorontalo.
APPLICATION OF THE COPULA METHOD TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIPS OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING THE CSPI Saleh, Sri Endang; Pakaya, Debyyansa; Hasan, Irsan K.; Djakaria, Ismail
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0903-0912

Abstract

The Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) is a valuable number in assessing the performance of the stocks listed on the stock exchange; by looking at the Composite Stock Price Index, investors can determine their investment strategy. However, the rise and fall of the Composite Stock Price Index depend on a country's macroeconomic conditions; if the economy weakens, the company's performance will also undermine investors' confidence, and confidence decreases. Analysing the relationship between the Composite Stock Price Index with macroeconomic factors can show how much the influence of these factors on the increase or decrease in the Composite Stock Price Index, the macroeconomic factors in question are inflation, interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate. In this study, dependency analysis was carried out with the Copula approach method involving the Tau Kendal method for parameter estimation and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method to choose the best Copula model to explain the relationship between the Composite Stock Price Index and these macroeconomic factors. Research results in it are found that the best Copula that can explain the dependency structure between the Composite Stock Price, The index with inflation and interest rates is the Gumbel Copula with parameters θ ̂= 1.264 and θ ̂= 1.174, While the Copula model is the best that can explain the structure of the dependency between Composite Stock Price Index and the exchange rate is Copula Student-t with parameter θ ̂= −0.6037.
COMPARING GAUSSIAN KERNEL AND QUADRATIC SPLINE OF NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION IN MODELING INFECTIOUS DISEASES Adityaningrum, Amanda; Ladjali, Sri Indriani; Djakaria, Ismail; Yahya, Lailany; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Nashar, La Ode; Jusuf, Herlina
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2135-2146

Abstract

The regression curve for nonparametric regression is assumed to belong to some infinite-dimensional collection of functions, which allows great flexibility in the form of the curve. This research intends to compare the Gaussian Kernel and Quadratic Spline regressions in four infectious diseases in Indonesia by 2021. The data used is secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Health, Indonesia, and the sample consists of four infectious diseases in Indonesia by 2021 (Tuberculosis, Diarrhoeal, Pneumonia, and COVID-19). Considering the correlation value, it was found that the independent and dependent variables of the four infectious diseases are all highly correlated (r values are more than 0.7). Furthermore, the scatter plots for four infectious diseases do not follow a particular pattern; due to this, parametric regression cannot be used to analyze the data. Therefore, nonparametric regression was applied in this research . According to the analysis, the Gaussian Kernel is the best regression technique for modeling four infectious diseases in Indonesia by 2021, which its R2 values are 99.85% (Tuberculosis), 100% (Diarrhoeal), 99.91% (Pneumonia), and 99.99% (COVID-19).
Partial Least Square-Path Modeling Analysis of Factors Influencing the Consumptive Behaviour of Generation Z Agustina, Melisa; Djakaria, Ismail; Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Adityaningrum, Amanda
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8014

Abstract

Consumptive Behaviour refers to individuals’ purchasing behaviour without considering long-term needs and financial conditions. This research presents the results of an analysis of the consumptive behaviour of Generation Z in Dungingi Sub-District, Gorontalo City, selected because it represents the second-largest Generation Z population in the city. The study used the Partial Least Square-Path Modeling (PLS-PM) method to measure factors influencing consumptive behaviour: financial literacy, fear of missing out (FOMO), and hedonistic lifestyle. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling, resulting in 378 respondents aged 17-27 years who are employed. The analysis results indicate that financial literacy and FOMO significantly influence consumptive behaviour, with FOMO being the most dominant factor. The resulting model has a value of 0,930, meaning that the three latent variables can explain 93,0% of the consumptive behaviour of Generation Z. This study is expected to provide useful insights for policymakers and related parties in adressing consumptive behaviour issues among Generation Z. Keywords: PLS-PM; Consumptive Behaviour; Generation Z
Co-Authors Agustina, Melisa Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Alamri, Fahima Amalia Tatu Armayani Arsal Armin Haluti Arwildayanto, Arwildayanto Asriadi Asriadi Boby Rantow Payu Caicy Magelo Demas Novaleda Abdul Karim Dewi Rahmawati Isa Dewi Rahmawaty Isa DEWI ZULYANI POMALINGO Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Evi Hulukati Fenly B Mohamad Fitra Reza Dj Wares Franky Alfrits Oroh Gaib, Muhammad Bachtiar Hamza B Uno HARIYATI H. USMAN Harun, Trieke Nurfadilah Haryati Octaviani Bempah Hasan, Irsan K. Hasan, Riyanto Hasan, Salmiaty Hendra Andrianto Yusuf Herlina Jusuf Isran K Hasan Iyohu, Lisa Rianti Jenny Patricia Ayu Kai K. Hasan, Isran Karmila Mokoginta Kartin Usman Kasim, Miranti H. La Ode Nashar Ladjali, Sri Indriani Lailany Yahya LISA SYAHRIA HASIRU Mahajani, Roy Mahmud, Sri Lestari Majid Majid Majid, Majid Mentari Rizki Sawitri Pilomonu Modeong, Fakhira Mohamad Rivaldi Moha Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Muhammad Rifai Madonsa Ningsih, Setia Ningsih, Setia NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Nosva Adam Yunus Novianty Djapri Nurhayati Abbas Nurjana Namko Ladjali Nursiya Bito Pakaya, Debyyansa Paputungan, Arsiullahnur R. Perry Zakaria Rahmi Moh. Amin Resmawan Resmawan Safrudin Ismail Salmun K. Nasib Silvani Yunus siswanto, Navira Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Endang Saleh Sri Haryatmi Kartiko Sri Lestari Mahmud Suhardiman Darson Tamu Sumarno Ismail suryo Guritno Swasti Maharani Syafrudin Katili Syamsu Qomar Badu Ukhti Nurfajriah Sasmita Ijonu Ulopo, Asrul S WA SALMI WD Rifqah Amalliah Ndangi Yamin Ismail Yusuf, Hendra Andrianto Zulkifli Alamtaha