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Mohammad Wahed
Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur
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Journal : Journal of Business Management and Economic Development

 1 
Response of Macroeconomic Indicators to External Shocks in Indonesia Febrian, Putri Hana; Wahed, Mohammad
Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Том 3 № 02 (2025): Journal of Business Management and Economic Development
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/jbmed.v3i02.1617

Abstract

As a developing country with a high level of economic openness, Indonesia is classified as vulnerable to global economic dynamics. This study aims to analyze the response to external shocks, namely the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed's interest rate increase, and USD/IDR exchange rate fluctuations on Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), as well as evaluate the government's fiscal policy in responding to these pressures during the 2013–2023 period. The research used secondary data for the quarter 2013:Q1 and 2023:Q4, with as many as 44 observations of each variable, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method. The results of the estimate show that the USD/IDR exchange rate and the Fed's interest rate have a significant long-term relationship with Indonesia's real GDP and CPI. Throughout the research period, the government responded through various fiscal policies such as fuel subsidy adjustments (2013–2014), strengthening infrastructure and tax reform (2015–2019), large stimulus through the PEN program during the pandemic (2020–2022), and returning to fiscal discipline in 2023 with a focus on social protection, human resource development, and industrial downstreaming. These findings underscore the importance of adaptive fiscal policies in mitigating the impact of external shocks on the domestic economy.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Ahmad Bayu Bagas Samudra Ahmad Luqman Al Hakim Wiwin Ahmad Nidhom Mahyuddin Arif Alfiansyah Asmara, Kiki Aurellia, Almirah Luthfiyah Nur Ayu P, Indahning Sukma Bella Safitri Sandi Cindy Aurelia Wahyudi Deby Oktaviana Dinda ayu pramesthi Elisa Stefani Ema Dian Ristika Fauzan Faisal Febrian, Putri Hana Fitri Wulandari Hardiyanto, Eko Haryanto Bagus Saputro Herawati Rusdi Hillary Irene Samosir Hyllda Annisa Aurora Imanuel Andre Aditya Iriani S, Ririt Iriani, Ririt Izzul, Raihan Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Karima Sharazati Khukuh Aris Kiki Asmara Kiki Asmara Kurnia Sari Dewi Kurnia Yuli Sintakarini Kusuma, Pramana Yhoga Laksono, Bayu Aji Lolyana Anggraini Putri Lolyana M. Wesla Dhifayana Sukirman Martha Hendrati, Ignatia Meylaffena Fernanda Meylana Widya Mindayanti Mindayanti, Meylana Widya Muchammad Nuruddin Islam Muhammad Roby Setiawan Mutia, Farah Nur Hamidah Niniek Imaningsih Oktaviana, Deby Primandhana, Wiwin Priana Priska Dian Amalia Putra Perdana Putri Kurniawati Rahma, Nofiatur Rahmawati, Siti Rumsiyah Raihan Izzul Bassam Romadhoni Riko Steya Wijaya Ririt Iriani Sri S Ririt Iriani Sri Setiawati Samosir, Hillary Irene Saputra, Khrisna Septiana, Marwah Sharazati, Karima Sishadiyati Sishidiyati Sishidiyati Sishidiyati Sishidiyati Sri muljaningsih Sri Muljaningsih Sri Muljaningsih Sri Setiawati, Ririt Iriani Stefani, Elisa Syamsul Huda Trisusanti, Evy Wasil, Mohammad Wirya Wardaya Wisanggeni Wahyu Lintang Bayu Segoro Wiwin Priana Wiwin Priana Primandhana Wiwin Priana Primandhana Wiwin Priana Primandhana Yanuar Tyas Suganda Yeni Yeni Zahra, Siti Halimatuz