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PERBANDINGAN METODE ANN BACKPROPAGATION DAN ARMA UNTUK PERAMALAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA Amaly, M. Hadiyan; Hirzi, Ristu Haiban; Basirun, Basirun
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 3, No 2 (2022): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v3i2.15440

Abstract

A country's development progress can be measured by good economic growth. If economic growth experiences rapid growth, it will usually trigger price increases. The occurrence of an uncontrolled increase in the price of goods or services for the needs of the community can cause inflation. inflation rate for a country is an inflation rate that has a low and stable value. One alternative is to provide an overview of the inflation in Indonesia by using forecasting analysis techniques. In this study, inflation forecasting analysis in Indonesia was carried out using the ANN Backpropagation and ARMA methods. The purpose of this research is to compare the performance results of the two methods and look at the best method for forecasting results. Based on the results of the analysis with the ANN Backpropagation method, the best network architecture model was ANN(7-4-1) using an epoch value of 400 and a learning rate of 0,1 with a value of MSE = 0,0112 and RMSE = 0,1065. While the results of the analysis using the ARMA method, the best model was obtained, namely ARMA(2,0,1) with the value MSE = 0,0648 and RMSE = 0,2545. So that the most optimal method used to predict inflation for the next period is the ANN Backpropagation method because it has a smaller error value. From this model, the results of forecasting inflation rates for the months of May to December 2022 are also obtained with a range of 0,01% to 0,5%. 
KEEFEKTIFAN MODEL SEARCH, SOLVE, CREATE, AND SHARE (SSCS) DITINJAU DARI PRESTASI DAN MOTIVASI SISWA SMP MUHAMMADIYAH BANGUNTAPAN Satriawan, Rody; Abdullah, Abdullah; Hirzi, Ristu Haiban
TEACHING : Jurnal Inovasi Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Pusat Pengembangan Pendidikan dan Penelitian Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51878/teaching.v5i2.6468

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to describe the effectiveness of teaching with the teaching model search, solve, create, and share (SSCS) regarding students’ achievement and mathematics learning motivation.This research was quasi-experimental with the non-equivalent control group design. The population was all students of class VIII SMP Muhammadiyah Banguntapan consisting of five classes. The sample taken at random consisted of two classes: classes VIII-D dan VIII-E. Class VIII-D was taught by using the model conventional, while class VIII-E was taught by using the SSCS teaching model.  The data were analyzed by using a multivariate test Hotelling’s T2, MANCOVA test. Each analysis regarding at the significance level of 5%. The results of the study show that: (1) the SSCS model is effective in terms of student achievement and learning motivation, while the conventional model is not effective in terms of student achievement and learning motivation; and (2) there is a difference in effectiveness between the SSCS model and the conventional model in terms of student achievement and learning motivation. ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan: (1) keefektifan model SSCS dan model konvensional ditinjau dari prestasi dan motivasi belajar siswa, dan (2) mengetahui apakah terdapat perbedaan keefektifan antara model SSCS dan model konvensional ditinjau dari prestasi dan motivasi belajar siswa setelah diberikan perlakuan. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian eksperimen semu dengan desain kontrol grup non-ekuivalen. Populasi penelitian yaitu seluruh siswa kelas VIII SMP Muhammadiyah Banguntapan yang terdiri dari lima kelas. Sampel penelitian diambil dua kelas secara acak, yaitu terambil kelas VIII-D dan VIII-E. Kelas VIII-E diberikan perlakuan model SSCS, sedangkan kelas VIII-D diberikan berupa model konvensional. Kriteria Uji hipotesis yang digunakan yaitu data dianalisis secara multivariat menggunakan uji T2 Hotteling’s. Instrumen penelitian terdiri dari tes prestasi dan angket motivasi belajar siswa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) model SSCS efektif ditinjau dari prestasi dan motivasi belajar siswa, sedangkan model konvensional tidak efektif ditinjau dari prestasi dan motivasi belajar siswa; dan (2) terdapat perbedaan keefektifan antara model SSCS dan model konvensional ditinjau dari prestasi dan motivasi belajar siswa.
Modeling multiple linear regression analysis in the formation of biogas pressure Basirun, Basirun; Hirzi, Ristu Haiban; Muanah, Muanah
Jurnal Agrotek Ummat Vol 10, No 3 (2023): Jurnal Agrotek Ummat
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jau.v10i3.16302

Abstract

Fossil energy reserves to date are dwindling inversely proportional to the amount of consumption. So to overcome this problem, alternative energy is needed, one of which is biogas which is sourced from organic waste. The biogas production process has so far experienced many obstacles so that the formation of pressure has not been optimal. The aim of the research was to create a model to see the magnitude of the influence of humidity and temperature on the pressure of the biogas produced. The method used is multiple linear regression with the following stages, identifying variables, testing classical assumptions, model building, and model goodness. Based on the results of the analysis, the model Y ̂=17.029-0.042X_1+3.480X_2 is obtained. Simultaneous test results show that simultaneously humidity and temperature have a significant effect because the sig is 0.000<α(0.05). The results of the partial test (T-Test) of each variable also showed significant results on biogas pressure because the sig was 0.000<α(0.05). The coefficient of determination of 0.8180 means that humidity and temperature variables affect the formation of biogas pressure by 81.80% and the rest is influenced by other factors such us pH, C/NRatio, starter, and so on.