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Indra, Jamaludin
Universitas Buana Perjuangan Karawang
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Journal : Journal of Applied Data Sciences

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Machine Learning Models for Predicting Flood Events Using Weather Data: An Evaluation of Logistic Regression, LightGBM, and XGBoost Maharina, Maharina; Paryono, Tukino; Fauzi, Ahmad; Indra, Jamaludin; Sihabudin, Sihabudin; Harahap, Muhammad Khoiruddin; Rizki, Lutfi Trisandi
Journal of Applied Data Sciences Vol 6, No 1: JANUARY 2025
Publisher : Bright Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/jads.v6i1.503

Abstract

This study examines flood prediction in Jakarta, Indonesia, a pressing concern due to its significant implications for public safety and urban management. Machine Learning (ML) presents promising methodologies for accurately forecasting floods by leveraging weather data. However, flood prediction in Jakarta remains challenging due to the city’s highly variable weather patterns, including fluctuations in rainfall, humidity, temperature, and wind characteristics. Existing methods often struggle with these complexities, as they rely on traditional ML models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), which may not capture certain patterns or provide high accuracy and robustness. Therefore, this study proposes three ML methods—Logistic Regression (LR), LightGBM, and XGBoost—to predict floods accurately. Five performance metrics (i.e., accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1-score) were used to measure and compare the accuracy of the algorithms. The proposed method consists of three main processes. The first process involves data preprocessing and evaluation using 14 different ML models. In the second process, additional feature engineering is applied to improve the quality of the data. Finally, the third process combines the previous steps with oversampling techniques and cross-validation methods. This structured approach aims to enhance the overall performance of the analysis. The experimental results show that Process 3 significantly improves performance compared to Processes 1 and 2. The model predicts floods with an accuracy score of 93.82% for LR, 96.67% for XGBoost, and 96.81% for LightGBM, respectively. Thus, the proposed model offers a solution for operational decision-making in flood risk management, including flood mitigation planning.
Co-Authors AA Sudharmawan, AA Abdul Gapur Achmad, Syifa Latifah Adi Rizky Pratama Adi Rizky Pratama Agung Susilo Yuda Irawan Ahmad Afifur Rahman Ahmad Fauzi Ahmad Fauzi Ahmad Rahman Al Fathir Rizal Januar Alif Kirana Anton Romadoni Junior Apriade Voutama April Hananto Ardiansyah, Fikri Arif Nurman Arip Solehudin Aris Martin Kobar Arum Puspita Lestari, Santi Asep Jamaludin Aviv Yuniar Rahman Awal, Elsa Elvira Ayu Juwita Ayu Ratna Juwita Azis Saputra Azzahra, Wava Lativa Baihaqi, Kiki Ahmad Cici Emilia Sukmawati Dadang Yusup Deden Wahiddin Deny Maulana Dwi Sulistya Kusumaningrum Dwi Vina Wijaya Eko Pramono Fadmadika, Fadilla Faisal, Sutan Fauzi Ahmad Muda Fauzi, Ahmad Firdaus, Thoriq Janati Firmansyah Maulana Fitri Nur Masruriyah, Anis Garno . Garno, Garno Gugy Guztaman Munzi Hanny Hikmayanti Handayani Hanung Pangestu Rahman Hilda Fitriana Dewi Hilda Novita Hilda Yulia Novita Holila, Holila Irma Putri Rahayu Juwita, Ayu Ratna Karyanto, Dony Dwi Khoirull Munazzal Kusumaningrum, Dwi Sulistya Lestari, Santi Arum Puspita M Andrian Agustyan Maharina, Maharina Maliah Andriyani Mudzakir, Tohirin Al Muhammad Cesar Afriansyah Arief Muhammad Deden Miftah Fauzi Muhammad Imam Naufal Muhammad Khoiruddin Harahap Muhammad Raja Nurhusen Muhammad Romadhon Nazori AZ Novalia, Elfina Nugraha, Najmi Cahaya Nurdin, Cherry Januar Nurlaelasari, Euis Nursyawalni, Reva Paryono, Tukino Pratama, Adi Rizky Purnama, Ariya Purnomo, Indarto Aditya Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Rahmat Rahmat Rahmat Rija Nur Hijriyya Rissa Ilmia Agustin Rizki, Lutfi Trisandi Rizky Rifaldi Robinson Nababan Rohana, Tatang Romlah Saefulloh, Nandang Sandi Susanto Santi Lestari Sihabudin Sihabudin, Sihabudin Siregar, Amril Mutoi Siti Robiah Suparno Sutan Faisal Syahrul Azis Tatang Rohana Tia Astiyah Hasan Tohirin Al Mudzakir Tohirin Mudzakir Toif Muhayat Tri Vicika, Vikha Ulfa Amelia Wahiddin, Deden Wildan Amin Wiharja Yana Cahyana Yogi Firman Alfiansyah