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Perbandingan Akurasi Peramalan Curah Hujan dengan menggunakan ARIMA, Hybrid ARIMA-NN, dan FFNN di Kabupaten Malang Bestari Archita Safitri; Atiek Iriany; Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (358.827 KB) | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.853

Abstract

Time series analysis is an observation that is built on time sequences. Time series analysis is useful in various fields, especially meteorology. One aspect of meteorology is rainfall, which can have an impact on human life. Rainfall has a complicated pattern to predict, so we need the best method for forecasting rainfall. There are several methods that can analyze the intensity of rainfall. Methods that can be used to predict rainfall are ARIMA method, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) method, and hybrid ARIMA-NN. This study aims to obtain the best rainfall modeling and prediction based on the three methods above. The rainfall data used came from the Mini Weather Station (MWS) at Supiturang and Manggisari hamlets. Based on the results of the study, at Supiturang, the best model was ARIMA(1,1,1) with RMSE of 3.4326. At Manggisari, the best model is Hybrid ARIMA(1,1,1) FFNN(4-9-1) with RMSE of 3.1056.
ANALISIS FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PRODUKTIVITAS JAGUNG DI DESA ANAENGGE KECAMATAN KODI KABUPATEN SUMBA BARAT DAYA Wigbertus Ngabu; Atiek Iriany
Agros Journal of Agriculture Science Vol 25, No 1 (2023): edisi JANUARI
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Janabadra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37159/jpa.v25i1.2471

Abstract

Komoditas jagung merupakan bahan makanan utama kedua setelah beras. Selain itu, jagung juga digunakan sebagai bahan pakan ternak dan bahan baku industri. Jika pemenuhan bahan pakan terganggu, maka pada akhirnya akan mengganggu pemenuhan kebutuhan protein dan peningkatan gizi bagi masyarakat. Oleh karena itu, jagung dipandang sebagai komoditas yang cukup strategis seperti halnya beras. Jagung merupakan salah satu sumber karbohidrat yang cukup potensial terutama di Indonesia Timur. Selain sebagai sumber bahan pangan, jagung juga menjanjikan banyak harapan untuk dijadikan sebagai bahan baku berbagai macam keperluan industri. Salah satu daerah potensial untuk produksi jagung adalah Kabupaten Sumba Barat daya yang memiliki banyak lahan marjinal (lahan kering). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi produktivitas Jagung di Kabupaten Sumba Barat Daya dengan benih unggul Brawijaya Nusa 01. Metode yang digunakan yaitu regresi linear berganda, dan diproleh hasil variabel yang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap produktivitas jagung di desa Anaengge Kabupaten Sumba Barat Daya Luas Lahan, Benih, NPK, Urea, Pestisida. Diproleh hasil R2 sebesar 93.26%, hasil ini menujukan variabel produktivitas jagung
Penerapan Aplikasi Sistem Administrasi Desa Untuk Mendukung Tata Kelolah Pemerintah Desa Di Desa Mulyoagung Kecamatan Dau Atiek Iriany; Wigbertus Ngabu; Solimun Solimun; Achmad Efendi; Danang Ariyanto; Arditama Putra Rochmanullah
Journal of Innovation and Applied Technology Vol 9, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jiat.2023.009.01.8

Abstract

Mulyoagung Village is a village in the Highlands which is located in Dau District, Malang Regency. The development of a tourist village requires a database and information that must be structured and systematic. One of the data and arrangement of the village administration system is related to the potential of the village or village services. Through situation analysis, this service activity tries to map the potential of the village, especially in village services. Development of village administration system applications as a tool for village officials in serving the community. The application of the village administration system application for the village of Mulyoagung is expected to be a means of providing excellent service to the community that is carried out more quickly, precisely, and accurately.  Based on the survey results, the village government is very satisfied with the village information system that has been created. 
Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Modeling in Analyzing Factors Affecting the Spread of Dengue Fever in Malang Fahmi Indrayani; Henny Pramoedyo; Atiek Iriany
The Journal of Experimental Life Science Vol. 8 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : Postgraduate School, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1175.267 KB) | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jels.2018.008.02.01

Abstract

Geographically and Temporally weighted regression (GTWR) modeling has been developed to evaluate spatial heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity in factors influencing the spread of dengue fever in Malang city. By using the monthly data in 2012-2015 as the temporal unit of each urban village in Malang and village is considered as a spatial unit. GTWR model is compared with the GWR model using several statistical criteria. GTWR model shows that the relationship between dengue incidence with population density and monthly average temperature significantly affects each Village in Malang.Keywords : DHF, GTWR, Spatiotemporal Pattern
Analyzing The Cost of Paddy Rice Labor in Indonesia: A Case Study in Ten Tons Syngenta Project Nikmatul Khoiriyah; Mellysa Isnaini; Atiek Iriany; David Forgenie
JSEP (Journal of Social and Agricultural Economics) Vol 16 No 2 (2023): JURNAL SOSIAL EKONOMI PERTANIAN (J-SEP)
Publisher : University of Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/jsep.v16i2.38160

Abstract

Rice is a commodity strategy and a basic food for nearly all Indonesian households. The purpose of this study is to describe the labor utilization and costs associated with all farming activities, as well as the income and efficiency of lowland rice farming. The study took place in the Ten Tons Syngenta area, specifically in Glanggang Village, Beji District, Pasuruan Regency, East Java. The study took place between August and September 2022. The sample was determined using a 20% random sampling technique, which in the collection of 22 samples of farmers. The research data were derived from primary sources and were gathered through direct interviews with farmers. The results indicated that labor costs is so high in land preparation and planting (53.50 percent) dominated work in lowland rice farming, followed by harvesting (17.37 percent), weeding (14.74 percent), fertilizing (8.92 percent), and spraying (5.4 percent ). Lowland rice farmers earn Rp. 5,381,567 per hectare and have an R/C ratio of 1.35. The application of advanced technology, particularly in land preparation and planting, is critical for increasing the income and efficiency of lowland rice farming in the Syngenta ten-ton area in order to support rice self-sufficiency in the run-up to Indonesia's 100th anniversary of independence in 2045.
Ensemble Cluster Method For Clustering Cabbage Production In East Java Maulidya Maghfiro; Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani; Atiek Iriany
Inferensi Vol 7, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v7i2.20378

Abstract

Cluster analysis is a multivariate analysis method classified under interdependence methods, where explanatory variables are not differentiated from response variables. The methods used include hierarchical cluster analysis, such as agglomerative and divisive, and non-hierarchical methods such as Self Organizing Maps (SOM) based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Various cluster analysis methods often yield diverse solutions, making it challenging to determine the optimal solution. Therefore, the ensemble cluster method is employed to combine various clustering solutions without considering the initial data characteristics with providing better results. One case study of clustering is the grouping of cabbage production. East Java Province has become the third-highest cabbage-producing province in Indonesia with a production of 210,454 tons. Clustering of cabbage-producing regencies/cities was conducted to optimize production and identify areas that have not yet reached their maximum potential. This study compares five clustering methods which are hierarchical analysis (complete linkage, single linkage, average linkage), Self-Organizing Map (SOM), and Ensemble Cluster. The quality of clustering was evaluated using the Silhouette Coefficient (SC), Dunn Index (DI), and Connectivity Index (CI). The results indicate that the Ensemble Cluster method showed the best performance, with an SC value of 0.9124, a DI value of 1.3734, and a CI value of 2.9290, indicating excellent cluster separation. Therefore, the ensemble cluster method is recommended as the best clustering method in this study.
PENAMBAHAN METODE NEURAL NETWORK DALAM PEMODELAN GSTAR-SUR UNTUK MENGATASI KASUS NON LINIER PADA PERAMALAN DATA CURAH HUJAN Atiek Iriany; Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes; Achmad Efendi; Henida Ratna Ayu Putri; Danang Ariyanto; Wigbertus Ngabu
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n1.p226-236

Abstract

Salah satu model peramalan yang dapat yang menggabungkan unsur spasial (spatial) dan temporal (time) adalah Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR). Pendugaan parameter yang digunakan adalah Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). Peramalan iklim pada tanaman hortikultura pada masa kini sulit untuk diprediksi karena memiliki pola dan karakteristik yang sulit diidentifikasi dan dapat disebut aktivitas non linier. Unsur non linier ini dapat ditangkap oleh metode neural network. Penelitian ini ingin mengetahui hasil peramalan curah hujan pada 6 wilayah di Tengger menggunakan model GSTAR dengan pendugaan parameter menggunakan metode SUR dan digabungkan dengan neural network agar hasil peramalan yang lebih akurat. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan enam lokasi di wilayah Tengger, yakni Ngadirejo, Puspo, Wonokitri, Argosari, Ngadas, dan Wonokerto. Model yang tepat dalam melakukan peramalan pada data curah hujan pada 6 lokasi Tengger adalah model GSTAR (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,36(1)) Backpropagation Neural Network (96-120-6).
Location Based Stunting Modeling Using Geographically Weighted Panel Regression in Blitar Regency Pramoedyo, Henny; Ngabu, Wigbertus; Iriany, Atiek
JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Vol. 21 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/2540766X.2024.v21.i2.17446

Abstract

Stunting remains a significant public health issue in Blitar Regency, Indonesia, particularly in rural areas where chronic malnutrition and inadequate access to healthcare services persist as major challenges. This study aims to explore the spatial and temporal factors influencing stunting using the Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) method. By integrating cross-sectional and time-series data from 2021 to 2023, the study evaluates various factors, including the stunting prevalence rate and independent variables such as maternal education level, per capita income, the number of postpartum mothers receiving Vitamin A supplements, immunization coverage, and the availability of healthcare personnel. The findings reveal that stunting prevalence is significantly influenced by location-specific variables, with healthcare access and nutrition being dominant factors in rural areas, while economic conditions exert a greater influence in urban areas. The GWPR model provides deeper insights into spatial heterogeneity and offers valuable guidance for designing targeted and region-specific policies to reduce stunting rates in Blitar Regency. The results indicate that the R-Square value of the GWPR model is 0.9123, meaning that 91.23% of the stunting prevalence in Blitar Regency can be explained by the independent variables in this study
Masterplan Kawasan Agrowisata Desa Talun Ponorogo Sugiarto, Sugiarto; Sutopo, Dhanny Septimawan; Nugroho, Arief Budi; Iriany, Atiek; Subagiyo, Aris
Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara Vol 9 No 1 (2025): Volume 9 Nomor 1 Tahun 2025
Publisher : Universitas Nusantara PGRI Kediri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29407/ja.v9i1.21607

Abstract

Ngebel Lake is one of the leading tourist destinations in Ponorogo Regency. Various annual events are held at Telaga Ngebel to attract local, domestic and international tourist visits. Ngebel Lake has an area of ​​±150 ha which is surrounded by Ngebel Village, Sahang Village, Wagir Lor Village, and Gondowido Village. Talun Village has an area of ​​16.72 km2 or around 27.42% of the entire area of ​​Ngebel District. Talun Village has large potential natural resources and human resources, but has not been utilized optimally. Some of the superior potential of Talun village include the Widodaren waterfall, the Argokiloso hermitage site, Sedayu coffee plantations, village-owned plantation land and a forestry area of ​​around 50 ha, opium coffee, 24 groups of goat and sheep breeders. This agrotourism area has the potential to complement the Telaga Ngebel tourist destination which is already well known to the wider community. This agrotourism area is expected to be able to encourage village economic growth which will lead to improving the welfare of the people of Talun village. The problem is that Talun village does not yet have a master plan for an agrotourism area as part of the gradual development process. Based on these problems, a master plan design for the Talun Village agrotourism area needs to be created.
Multigroup Analysis on Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modeling in Modeling College Students' Saving Behavior Asaliontin, Lisa; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Solimun, Solimun; Sepriadi, Hanifa; Iriany, Atiek; Hamdan, Rosita
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 1 (2025): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i1.27692

Abstract

This study aims to determine the factors that influence college students' saving behavior, with gender as a moderating variable. The analysis used is Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with Multigroup Analysis. This study was conducted on 200 college students in City X who were selected by purposive sampling. Data collection was carried out using a structured questionnaire that measures Perceived Benefits, Perceived Ease of Use, Saving Intentions, and Saving Behavior. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Bootstrapping were used to validate the measurement model and structural relationships. The results showed that Perceived Benefits and Perceived Ease had a significant effect on Saving Intentions and Saving Behavior. In addition, Saving Intentions had a significant effect on Saving Behavior. This relationship applies to both male and female groups, with a determination coefficient of 86.2% for males and 86.7% for females. Moderation analysis shows that gender moderates the relationship between Perceived Benefits and Saving Behavior, as well as between Perceived Ease and Saving Behavior. These findings highlight the importance of considering gender differences in efforts to improve students' savings behavior. 
Co-Authors A. Fahmi Indrayani Achmad Efendi Achmad Efendi Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes Agus Dwi Sulistyono, Agus Dwi Alim, Viky Iqbal Azizul Amanda, Devi Veda Aniek Iriany Arditama Putra Rochmanullah Arianto, Danang Arifin Noor Sugiharto Aris Subagiyo Asaliontin, Lisa Ayu Aisyah Ashari Bambang Dwi Argo Bestari Archita Safitri Budi Astuti, Ani Cecep Kusmana Chairunissa, Abela Danang Ariyanto Danang Ariyanto Darmanto Darmanto David Forgenie Devi Veda Amanda Dewi, Anggi Seftia Dhanny Septimawan Sutopo Eni Sumarminingsih Faddli Lindra Wibowo Fernandes, Adji Fernandes, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Firdaus, Cahyani Jannah Fudianita, Citra Hamdan, Rosita Haneinanda Junianto, Fachira Hartawati, Hartawati Henida Ratna Ayu Putri Henny Pramoedyo Henny Pramoedyo Iwan Setiawan Khoiril Anam, Khoiril Kusdarwati, Heni Maghfiro, Maulidya Maisaroh, Ulfah Marhen Andan Prasetyo Maulidya Maghfiro Mellysa Isnaini Muhamad Firdaus Muhamad Ridwan Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani Ni Wayan Surya Wardhani NI WAYAN SURYA WARDHANI Nikmatul Khoiriyah Novi Nur Aini Novi Nur Aini, Novi Nur Nugroho, Arief Budi Nugroho, Salma Fitri Ola, Petrus Kanisius Pramaningrum, Dea Saraswati Putra, Arditama Rahma Fitriani Rinaldo Fernandes, Adji Achmad Riza, Sativandi Rosyida, Diana Rudiat Sekarsari, Cindy Sepriadi, Hanifa Solimun Solimun Solimun Solimun, Solimun Suci Astutik Sugiarto S Suryawardhani, Ni Wayan Sutopo, Dhanny Septimawan Ullah, Mohammad Ohid Utomo, Candra Rezzining Wulat Sariro Weni Waego Hadi Nugroho Wigbertus Ngabu Yuliana, Mila