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Yahya Darmawan
Indonesian Agency For Meteorological, Climatological And Geophys-ics (BMKG) Region I
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Journal : Journal of Computer Science and Engineering (JCSE)

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Accuracy Assessment of Monthly Rainfall Predictions using Seasonal ARIMA and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Akbar, Ahmad Aldizar; Darmawan, Yahya; Wibowo, Arief; Rahmat, Hayatul Khairul
Journal of Computer Science and Engineering (JCSE) Vol 5, No 2: August (2024)
Publisher : ICSE (Institute of Computer Sciences and Engineering)

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Abstract

Hydro meteorological disasters are common in Indonesia. Rainfall predictions can help mitigate the impact of these disasters. This research aims to compare the accuracy of monthly rainfall prediction models using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods. The input data consists of monthly rainfall records from four locations: Sampali, Kualanamu, Belawan, and Tuntungan, located around Medan, North Sumatra. The dataset spans from 2000 to 2020, with training data from 2000 to 2018 and test data from 2019 to 2020. The accuracy assessment reveals that Belawan has the largest RMSE values for both models, measuring 27.68 mm for LSTM and 28.36 mm for SARIMA. Belawan records the highest MAE values, with LSTM and SARIMA yielding 5.65 mm and 5.79 mm, respectively. SARIMA models effectively capture general trends and seasonality in linear time series data with clear patterns but struggle with extreme changes or sharp fluctuations due to their reliance on linear relationships. In contrast, LSTMs are effective at modeling complex, non-linear relationships, making them suitable for capturing general trends, seasonal patterns, and more complicated variations in the data. Understanding the characteristics of the data is crucial before applying SARIMA or LSTM models.
Co-Authors Afriyanti Agung Perdian Sulistio Akbar, Ahmad Aldizar Al Badri, Abdul Aziz Amanu, Rendy Syahril Amri, Sayful Anggraini, Eca Indah Aplena Elen S. Bless Ardhana, Andini Aprilia Arief Wibowo Arief, Syachrul Arifianto, Fendy Arkananta, Muhammad Zaky Armadyaputri, Aludra Nadia Bambang Giyanto Benyamin Heryanto Rusanto Carundyatama, Daniar Ihza Dahsan, Sudarti Deni Septiadi Dhaifullah Rafif Aslam Erna Frida Fadhli Aslama Afghani Fadllillah, Ahmad Arif Zulfan Ferdiansyah, Ervan Ferdiyansyah, Ervan Franchitika, Rizky Giananti, Attiya Shakila Habibi, Naufal Ilham Hayatul Khairul Rahmat Hibatullah, Khindi Aufa Ikhsanudin, Agus Haryanto Imawan Mashuri Karyono Karyono Kusumayanti, Diah Lumbantoruan, Alva Josia Manik, Willy Bonanja Manullang, Safri Emanuel Manurung, Ellya Veronika Iriani Manurung, Royston Marhaposan Situmorang, Marhaposan Muhamad Arif Jumansa Muhammad Labieb Muzakkie Muhammad Zaky Arkananta Mulya, Aditya Munawar Munawar Nardi, Nardi Nisa, Ania Maulidiah Nurdin, Fachdy Nuzula Elfa Rahma Oktabrian, Krisna Dwi Parwati Sofan Rahma, Nuzula Elfa Ramadoni Khirtin Restianto, Mohammad Obie Rista Hernandi Virgianto Rizki Ramadani Sabrina, Purwanti Lelly Samen Baan Sanjaya, Kadek Valerina Kitana Saputra, Ahmad Irsyad Saragih, Immanuel Jhonson A. Sudarisman, Maman Supriyadi, Asep Adang Syahrul Humaidi, Syahrul Tambunan, Nensy Nindy Tanggahma, Yuan Zalfa Trianasari, Maria Evy Tulus Ikhsan Nasution Veanti, Desak Putu Okta Vidia, Trimawarti Esti Wandono, Wandono Weman Suardy Wibowo, Shindyko Widodo , Anton Widodo Widodo