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All Journal VALENSI Media Statistika Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Kubik International Conference on Coastal and Delta Areas Jurnal Fourier Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Buletin Sumber Daya Geologi JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Kumawula: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Pattimura Proceeding : Conference of Science and Technology Jurnal Matematika Integratif Matematika STATISTIKA Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Budi Nurani Ruchjana
Departemen Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Media Statistika

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GSTARI-ARCH MODEL AND APPLICATION ON POSITIVE CONFIRMED DATA FOR COVID-19 IN WEST JAVA Alawiyah, Mutik; Kusuma, Dianne Amor; Ruchjana, Budi Nurani
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 14, No 2 (2021): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.14.2.146-157

Abstract

Time series model that is commonly used is the Box-Jenkins based time series model. Time series data phenomena based on Box-Jenkins can be combined with spatial data, it is called the space time model One model based on Box-Jenkins model with heterogeneous location characteristics is the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Integrated (GSTARI) model for a model that assumes data is not stationary or has a trend. This paper discusses the development of the GSTARI model with the assumption that the error variance is not constant which is applied to positive data confirmed by Covid-19 in West Java Province, especially in 4 regencies/cities that have cases in the high category from 6 March 2020 until 31 December 2020. Four regencies/cities are Depok City, Bekasi City, Bekasi Regency, and Karawang Regency. Parameter estimation method for the assumption of non-constant error variance can use Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) method. GSTARI-ARCH modeling procedure followed three Box-Jenkins stages, namely the identification process, parameter estimation and checking diagnostic. Application of the GSTARI-ARCH Model to Covid-19 positive confirmed data in 4 regencies/cities has a minimum value of RMSE in Bekasi City. The plot of forecast results for the four regencies/cities has a similar pattern to the actual data only applicable for a short time for 1-2 days.
FORECASTING COVID-19 IN INDONESIA WITH VARIOUS TIME SERIES MODELS Gumgum Darmawan; Dedi Rosadi; Budi Nurani Ruchjana; Resa Septiani Pontoh; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Wirawan Setialaksana
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.83-93

Abstract

In this study, Covid-19 modeling in Indonesia is carried out using a time series model. The time series model used is the time series model for discrete data. These models consist of Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Fuzzy Time Series (FTS), Generalized Autoregression Moving Average (GARMA), and Bayesian Time Series. Based on the results of forecast accuracy calculation using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as model evaluation for confirmed data, the most accurate case models is the bayesian model of 0.04%, while all recovered cases yield MAPE 0.05%, except for FTS = 0.06%. For data for death cases SSA and Bayesian Models, the best with MAPE is 0.07%.
Co-Authors Ahdian, Muhammad Rhafi Ahmad Fawaid Ridwan Akmaliah, Syifani Al Fataa W Haq Al Madani, Aulia R. Al Madani, Aulia Rahman Alawiyah, Mutik Almeira Tsanawafa Anggraeni A Ani Pertiwi Annisa Alma Yunia Annisa Nur Falah, Annisa Nur Annisafiya, Nadira Arisya Maulina Bowo Asep Kurnia Permadi Asep Kurnia Permadi Asri Yuniar Asrirawan Atika Tresna Arianto Atje Setiawan Abdullah Auliyazhafira, Shabira A. Ayu Indriani Ayun Sri Rahmani Bambang Suhandi Bambang Suhandi Bowo, Arisya Maulina Chotimah, Husnul Dedi Rosadi Delvi Rutania Prama Desiyanti, Armalia Devi Munandar, Devi Devi Yanti, Devi Diah Chaerani Dian Islamiaty Puteri Dianne Amor Kusuma Dicky Muslim Dwi Susanti Dwipriyoko, Estiyan Eddy Hermawan Emah Suryamah Emah Suryamah, Emah Endang Rusyaman Endang Soeryana Hasbullah Fadhilah, Dila Nur Fajriatus Sholihah Falah, Annisa N. Gumgum Darmawan Gumgum Darmawan Hamim Tsalis Soblia Hardianto A Hendarmawan Hendarmawan Hendarmawan Hendarmawan, Hendarmawan Hera Khoirunnisa Husein Hernadi Bahti I Gede Nyoman Mindra I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ibrahim, Riza Andrian Iin Irianingsih Kaerudin, Nandira Putri Kankan Parmikanti Kartika Sari Khafsah Joebaedi Khoirunnisa Rohadatul Aisy Muslihin Khoirunnisa Rohadatul Aisy Muslihin Kusuma, Dianne Amor Lucy Fitria Dewi Mahrudinda Mahrudinda Maryanto Rompon Mindra, I Gede Nyoman Monika, Putri Muhamad Sobari Muhammad Herlambang Prakasa Yudha Muthalib A nadhira, valda azka Najwa, Sandrina Nauli, Theresia S. Novi - Saputri NUR HAMID Nur Hamid Nurdeni, Nurdeni Nurul Gusriani, Nurul Permana, Pandu Permatasari, Noverlina Putri Pratiwi, Dhanti Aurilia Pratomo, Firdaus Ryan Puteri, Dian Islamiaty Putri Monika Putri Monika Putri Zahra Helena Putri, Fariza A. Putri, Salsabila Eka Resa Septiani Pontoh Rizka Pradita Prasetya Rizki Apriva Hidayana Salsabil, Tsuroyya Salsabila Salsabila Setialaksana, Wirawan - Shailla Rustiana Sobari, Muhamad Soetikno, Christophorus Sri Adi Widodo Sri Indra Maiyanti Suhandi, Bambang Sutawanir Darwis Tarigan, Wenny Srimeinda Tegar Bratasena WKM Tilas Notapiri Toni Toharudin Tsanawafa, Almeira Tsuroyya Salsabil Tubagus Robbi Megantara Viona Prisyella Balqis Vivian Wilhelmina Vivian Wilhelmina WKM, Tegar Bratasena Yunia, Annisa Alma Zahra, Nabila Zulfa Hidayah Satria Putri