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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia J-Sil (Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan) Bumi Lestari Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan Teknotan: Jurnal Industri Teknologi Pertanian Jurnal Keteknikan Pertanian JURNAL ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN KEHUTANAN Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Ecogreen Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil Jurnal Irigasi LIMNOTEK - Perairan Darat Tropis di Indonesia Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) JUTEKS Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pekerjaan Umum JURNAL TEKNIK HIDRAULIK JURNAL SUMBER DAYA AIR JuTEkS (Jurnal Teknik Elektro dan Sains) Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum International Journal Engineering and Applied Technology (IJEAT) GeoEco J-Sil (Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan) Jurnal Penelitian Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai (Journal of Watershed Management Research)
Asep Sapei
Departemen Teknik Sipil Dan Lingkungan, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, IPB University, Darmaga, Bogor, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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SPATIAL MODELING OF LAND COVER DYNAMICS IN DKI JAKARTA CILIWUNG WATERSHED USING CA-MARKOV APPROACH Mohamad Mahfudz; Baba Barus; Asep Sapei; Bambang Pramudya Noorachmat
GeoEco Vol 12, No 2 (2026): GeoEco July 2026
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret (UNS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/ge.v12i2.108804

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change driven by human activities has become a major factor influencing environmental dynamics, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas. This study aims to analyze LULC changes in the Ciliwung Watershed, DKI Jakarta, during the period 2010–2025 and to project future trends up to 2030. The study utilizes Landsat imagery with a spatial resolution of 30 meters, combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach and the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model. LULC classification was categorized into six classes, achieving an overall accuracy of 80% and a Kappa coefficient above 75%, indicating strong agreement. The results show a significant increase in built-up areas by 81.83% by 2030, accompanied by a decrease in open land by 18% and forest areas by 13.53%. Agricultural land and shrubland show slight increases of 1.57% and 0.82%, respectively, while water bodies remain relatively stable at 2.07%.  The expansion of built-up areas exerts considerable pressure on green spaces and reduces water infiltration capacity, thereby increasing the potential risk of flooding in the study area. These findings highlight the importance of implementing adaptive and sustainable spatial planning policies to control LULC changes and mitigate future environmental impacts.
Daily Water Balance Analysis of the Sempor Reservoir in Central Java Using the SWAT Model for Operational Reliability Assessment Ayu Septyandini Yudiva Putri; Asep Sapei; Chusnul Arif
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Vol. 12 No. 3 (September 2026)
Publisher : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jcef.23584

Abstract

empor Reservoir plays a crucial role in supporting irrigation water supply, raw water provision, and flood control in Central Java. Effective reservoir operation requires reliable estimates of inflow and water availability to ensure sustainable water allocation under varying hydrological conditions. This study analyzes the daily water balance of Sempor Reservoir using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate inflow and assess operational reliability. Daily rainfall and climate data for 2015–2024 were used, with streamflow observations used for model calibration (2015–2022) and validation (2023–2024). Model performance was evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The SWAT model performed very well, achieving NSE = 0.83 and R2 = 0.87. These performance statistics indicate that the simulated inflows closely matched the observed discharge and provide confidence in the model’s application for water balance analysis. Daily water balance results show that deficit conditions occur mainly during the dry season. Annual inflow and demand were 184.02 million m3 and 186.45 million m3, resulting in a deficit of 2.43 million m3. The reservoir was full for 36 days, sufficient for 311 days, and insufficient for 18 days, indicating approximately 95% reliability. Overall, the results demonstrate that the SWAT model is an effective tool for evaluating daily reservoir water balance and operational performance. The findings provide useful information for reservoir operation, water allocation planning, and sustainable water resources management under changing hydrological conditions. The results also provide valuable information for water managers in optimizing reservoir operation, improving water allocation efficiency, and reducing the impacts of seasonal water shortages.
Modeling and Projecting Rainfall Patterns in the Jakarta Ciliwung Watershed Using SARIMA and GIS for Flood Risk Assessment Mohamad Mahfudz; Baba Barus; Asep Sapei; Bambang Pramudya Noorachmat
Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management) Vol 16 No 3 (2026): Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (JPSL)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian Lingkungan Hidup, IPB (PPLH-IPB) dan Program Studi Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan, IPB (PS. PSL, SPs. IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jpsl.16.3.410

Abstract

In recent years, a broad consensus has emerged that global hydroclimatic anomalies have increased rainfall variability in tropical cities. Addressing this, we simulated and predicted rainfall patterns in Jakarta’s Ciliwung River Basin using a hierarchical framework that integrates Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series modeling with GIS spatial interpolation. Monthly rainfall records from three stations, Kemayoran (1990–2020), Halim (1990–2018), and Tanjung Priok (1990–2015), were analyzed. Following Ljung-Box and residual tests, the SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ model was selected. Accuracy verification yielded Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values below 10% for all stations: 8.4% (Kemayoran), 7.9% (Halim), and 8.1% (Tanjung Priok). Core predictions indicate that by 2030, rainfall intensity will continue declining across all stations, while seasonal rainfall rhythms remain stable. Spatial rainfall pattern comparison between 2025 and 2030 reveals a northward shift of the high rainfall concentration zone. This study has two limitations: only three sample stations were used, and no formal uncertainty quantification was performed for spatial predictions, making the reliability of spatial patterns weaker than suggested by visualizations. Despite these constraints, the proposed statistical-spatial modeling approach supports flood preparedness and adaptive water resource management in data-constrained urban watersheds, provided users account for the stated methodological limitations.
Analisis Debit Andalan dan Kebijakan Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai Bengkulu untuk Ketersediaan Air Baku Di Kota Bengkulu (Analysis of Dependable Discharge and Management Policy of Bengkulu Watershed for Raw Water Availability in Bengkulu City) Idham Khalik; Asep Sapei; Sigid Hariyadi; Elisa Anggraeni
Jurnal Penelitian Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai (Journal of Watershed Management Research) Vol 9 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Penelitian Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai (Journal of Watershed Manageme
Publisher : Asosiasi Peneliti dan Teknisi Kehutanan dan Lingkungan Hidup Indonesia (APTKLHI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59465/jppdas.2025.9.1.79-104

Abstract

Watersheds must be managed as a unified area from upstream to downstream, by considering various geophysical and socio-economic aspects. Changes in watershed morphology are one of the important factors that can affect the hydrological system and affect the water availability of a region. The study aimed to analyse the dependable discharge of the Bengkulu River and develop policies for  sustainable management of the Bengkulu Watershed. The methods used to analyze the reliable discharge are the Weibull distribution flow duration curve (with 90% probability) and Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM). Results showed that, from 1990 to 2020, land use in the Bengkulu Watershed changed in the form of a 34,58 km2 (7,30%) decrease in Secondary Dryland Forest area, and a 10,54 km2 (2,22%) increase in mining area. The dependable discharge of Bengkulu River (with 90% probability) is 10.93 m3/s or approximately 344.69 million m3. Furthermore, the Bengkulu River’s flow regime coefficient fluctuates considerably and has shows an increasing trend in recent years. This indicates that the watershed is experiencing degradation due to changes in land cover and global climate changes. Some policy recommendations that need to be implemented include integrating spatial planning and watershed management plans across local governments and to guide natural resource management, reforestating or planting trees to maintain vegetated areas, and planting forests and crops through agroforestry.
Co-Authors . Erizal ., Apip Afifi, Arif Yusron Ahmad Fausan Akmal Ikhsan Maulana Allen Kurniawan Arif Yusron Afifi Arya Hadi Dharmawan Ayu Septyandini Yudiva Putri Baba Barus Bambang Pramudya Noorachmat, Bambang Pramudya Chessaramadhanty, Shaffadina Putry Chusnul Arif D.S, Made Desrial Dzulfiqar, Muhammad Fakhri E. Namaken Sembiring Elisa Anggraeni Endang Purnama Dewi Eriyatno . Erizal , Gatot Pramuhadi Hariansyah, M. Harits, Muzhaffar Hermawan, FX Idham Khalik Irma Kusmawati Iskandar, Kamal Hasan Kamal Hasan Iskandar M Yanuar J. Purwanto M. Hariansyah M. Yanuar J Purwanto M. Yanuar J. Purwanto M. Yanuar J. Purwanto M. Yanuar J. Purwanto Made D.S Maulana Ibrahim Rau Meiske Widyarti Meiske Widyarti Melvin Classy Alexander Tarigan Mohamad Mahfudz Mohamad Mahfudz Muhammad Fauzan Muhammad Hasjim Bintoro Djoefrie Hasjim Bintoro Djoefrie Muzhaffar Harits Muzhaffar Harits Namaken Sembiring Nicolaus Noywuli Niels vuegen Niels vuegen Nora H. Pandjaitan Noywuli, Nicolaus Prasetia, Rakhmat R. P.A, Setiawan Radite Pas Reni Nuraeni Reni Nuraeni Ridwan Adi Surya Said Karim Saputri, Utamy Sukmayu Sayed Ahmad Fauzan Sayed Ahmad Fauzan Sayed Ahmad Fauzan, Sayed Ahmad Setiawan R. P.A Sigid Hariyadi Soeharsono - Sutoyo Tarigan, Melvin Classy Alexander Tieneke Mandang Utami, Nurya Wawan Hermawan Widiatmaka Yazid Ismi Intara Yuli Suharnoto Zuzy Anna