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All Journal Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Pelita Eksakta Suluah Bendang: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Rangkiang Mathematics Journal UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Dodi Vionanda
Unknown Affiliation
Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Comparison of K-Means and K-Medoids in Clustering Regency/City in West Sumatra Province Based on Environmental Indicators Robiati, Silfi; Fitria, Dina; Vionanda, Dodi; Sulistiowati, Dwi
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 8 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v8i2p191-201

Abstract

The Environmental Quality Index is an index that describes the condition of environmental management results nationally, and generalises from all regencies/cities and provinces in Indonesia. Although the Environmental Quality Index of West Sumatra Province has increased, there are still regencies/cities in West Sumatra Province have decreasing Environmental Quality Index. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct further analysis, one of which is to form a group of regencies/cities into a group according to their similarities or characteristics. This study aims to compare the K-Means and K-Medoids methods in grouping regencies/cities in West Sumatra Province based on environmental quality indicators in 2023. The data used in this research is secondary data, which is orginally the publication of Central Bureau of Statistics namely Sumatera Barat Dalam Angka in 2024. The research compares the K-Means cluster method and the K-Medoids cluster method. It concludes K-Means better than K-Medoids methods based on DB index with three clusters. First cluster has 12 regencies/cities with a high average air quality index, the second cluster has 6 regencies/cities that have small amounts of waste, and the third cluster has 1 city with a high average water quality index and land quality index, but a large amount of waste.   Keywords: Cluster, Comparison, Environmental, K-Means, K-Medoids
Forecasting Foreign Tourists to West Sumatera Before and After COVID-19 Using ARIMA and Prophet and Its Impact on Foreign Exchange Alandra, Cindy Resha; Permana, Dony; Vionanda, Dodi; Fitria, Dina
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 9 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v9i2p157-168

Abstract

Foreign exchange earnings are very important for the improvement of the economy in Indonesia, where these foreign exchange earnings can be obtained through the tourism sector. One of the provinces in Indonesia that is a major tourist destination is West Sumatra. The number of foreign tourists coming to West Sumatra is influenced by various factors, one of which is the COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in a decrease in visitor numbers. The research was conducted to forecast the number of foreign tourists to West Sumatra using the ARIMA and Prophet methods, as well as to calculate the loss and foreign exchange earnings and the forecasting accuracy of both methods. The data for this study was taken from the BPS West Sumatra website regarding the number of foreign tourists to West Sumatra from 2015 to 2024. In this data, forecasting for the year 2020 will be done using the ARIMA method and forecasting for the year 2025 using the Prophet method. The data in this study tends to be stable before the pandemic, making the ARIMA method suitable. Meanwhile, after the pandemic, the data fluctuated, making the Prophet method suitable. From the results obtained, the best ARIMA model is ARIMA (1, 0, 1). The forecasting accuracy is 1.82% with an estimated foreign exchange loss of $52,095,688 for the year 2020. Meanwhile, using the Prophet method, the forecasting accuracy obtained is 12.13% with an estimated foreign exchange revenue of $208,546,812 for the year 2025.
Vector Autoregressive Exogenous Modelling to Forecast Rice Prices Based on Inflation and Rice Production in West Sumatra Province Khairisa Putri, Nadya; Kurniawati, Yenni; Vionanda, Dodi; Martha, Zamahsary
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 14 No 1 (2026): VOLUME 14 No 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v14i1.66522

Abstract

Rice prices in West Sumatra Province tend to be high despite high production levels, making forecasting essential to support food security. This study aims to forecast rice prices in traditional and modern markets using a Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARX) model, incorporating inflation and rice production as exogenous variables. The data used consists of monthly secondary data covering the period from January 2019 to December 2024, sourced from PIHPS and the West Sumatra Provincial Statistics Agency. The analysis includes the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test, determination of the optimal lag based on the Akaike Information Criterion, parameter estimation using Ordinary Least Squares, as well as tests of stability, parameter significance, and residual diagnostics. Forecast performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the VARX (3,3) model is the best, with an MAPE of 1.95\% for traditional markets and 1.56\% for modern markets, indicating very high forecasting accuracy. This study demonstrates that incorporating external factors into the VARX model improves rice price forecasting accuracy, providing a basis for the government to formulate policies to maintain food price stability in West Sumatra Province.
Co-Authors Afdhal Rezeki Afdhal Alandra, Cindy Resha Aldwi Riandhoko Andini Yulianti Aprilla Suhada Atus Amadi Putra Bahri Annur Sinaga defal aditya defran Dina Fitria Dina Fitria Dina Fitria, Dina Dinda Fitriza Dony Permana Dwi Sulistiowati, Dwi Fadhilah Fitri Fadhillah Fitri Fashihullisan Fayza Annisa Febrianti FAZHIRA ANISHA Febri Ramayanti Findri Wara Putri Fitri, Fadhilah Fitria Panca Ramadhani Hariati Ainun Nisa Ichlas Djuazva Ihsanul Fikri Isra Miraltamirus Jimmi Darma putra Khairisa Putri, Nadya Larissa, Dwika Lifia Zullani Mardhiatul Azmi Muhammad Tibri Syofyan nabillah putri Nazifatul Azizah Nindi Syahfitrri Nonong Amalita Nurul Afifah Permana, Dony Putri Rivani Rahmanesta, Frandito rama novialdi Rizki Akbar Robiati, Silfi Salma, Admi Seif Adil El-Muslih Shavira Asysyifa S Sherly Amora Jofipasi Silvia Agustina Susrifalah, Amelia Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syifa Azahra Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tessy Octavia Mukhti Wood, Raihan Attaya Yarman Yarman, Yarman Yenni Kurniawati Yunistika Ilanda Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi