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Journal : JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)

XportID: Website for Clustering Indonesian Export Commodities by Destination Continent using Gaussian Mixture Model Lisanthoni, Angela; Trimono, Trimono; Prasetya, Dwi Arman
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 1 (2025): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i1.27500

Abstract

Exports play a crucial role in driving economic growth and increasing foreign exchange reserves. However, Indonesia's export performance has not yet reached its optimal potential, as evidenced by an 11% decline in export value in 2023. The decrease is partly attributed to the limited range of export destination markets. Therefore, this study aims to analyze export trade patterns to identify the most ideal and potential market locations. The research will employ a quantitative approach, using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the 2022 BACI dataset, focusing on the top 5 HS2 commodity types by highest export quantity. Clustering analysis is applied to group markets based on similar characteristics, identifying countries with high, medium, and low export potential for Indonesia’s export strategy. The research develops a website-based clustering system called XportID, utilizing a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to determine optimal cluster parameters. GMM is preferred for its flexibility and probabilistic system, providing more accurate results compared to distance-based methods. There will be 3, 4, and 5 clusters formed and then the best cluster will be selected by comparing the silhouette score obtained. Results show that the Asian continent has 5 clusters with the best value of 0.7035, the American continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8165, the African continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8534, the Australian continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8540, and the European continent has 4 clusters with the best value of 0.8654. Overall results, the clustering system is categorized as strong structure with average value of 0.8185. Countries with high export potential include Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, and Spain. Specifically in Africa, commodities related to HS2-15 show potential for growth.
Co-Authors ', Nachrowie ., Humaidi A. A. Ngurah Gunawan Aan Nehru Awanto Achmad Junaidi Aditya, Wigananda Firdaus Putra Agustina, Fadlila Akio Kitagawa Alam, Fajar Indra Nur Ali, Munawar Amrullah, Ahmad Wildan Andre Leto Andrew Arjunanda Yasin Anggraini Puspita Sari Anindha Lazuardi Aries Boedi Setiawan Arifani, Kahpi Baiquni Arifuddin, Rahman Arinda, Putri Surya Arum Puspita Ayu Atiana Sofia Kaci Awang, Wan Suryani Wan Azizah, Alisa Jihan Aziziyah, Luqna Baidowi Baidowi Baidowi Baidowi Bambang Nurdewanto Barus, Indra Basitha F Hidayatulail Cahyani Kuswardhani, Hajjar Ayu cahyono, wahyu eko Candra Laksana Damai Arbaus, Damai Damaliana, Aviolla Terza Danang - Destiawan Danang Destiawan Desyderius Minggu Dicky Kurniawan Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas Dody Pintarko Dwi Agung Ayubi E, Nachrowie Ekawati, Anies Eko Wahyu Prasetyo Elta Sonalitha Sonalitha Erik Roma Hurmuzi Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana Farhans, Muhammad Izzudin Febriyanti, Alvi Yuana Firdaus Firdaus Firza Prima Aditiawan Gatut Yulisusianto Halim, Christina Hari Fitria Windi Hendry Yudha Pratama Hesti Sholikah, Hesti Hidayatulail, Basitha F Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida Hiroshi Suzuki Hurmuzi, Erik Roma Ibrahim, Mohd Zamri Bin idhom, Mohammad Iffadah, Adhisa Shilfadianis Indra Barus Irsyadi, Muhamad Haidir Ismail, Jefri Abdurrozak Januar, Teddy Jariyah Jeki Saputra Junita Junita Kartika Maulida Hindrayani Kassim, Anuar bin Mohamed Kholid, Fajar Kukuh Yudhistiro, Kukuh Kurniawan, Dicky Kusuma, Dwi Febri Chandra Kusuma, Firdaus Miftakh Kuswardana, Dendy Arizki Laksana, Candra Lestari, Amanda Ayu Dewi Lisanthoni, Angela Maldini, Andry Syva Mas Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Maulidiyyah, Nova Auliyatul Mohammad Ansori Mohammad, Bawazir Fadhil Muhaimin, Amri Muhammad Ansori Muhammad Muharrom Al Haromainy Mulyadi Mulyadi Nachrowie Nachrowie Nachrowie, Nachrowie Nambo Hidetaka Ningrum, Imelda Widya Ninik Sisharini Ninis Herawati Norma Windiyanti Novita Anggraini Nur Rachman Nur Rachman Supatmana Muda Nur Rochman Nur Rochman Nurhalizah, Cesaria Deby Prakoso, Akbar Tri Puput Dani Prasetyo Adi Putri, Irma Amanda Rabi, Abd. Rahman Arifuddin Rahmanda Putri, Endin Rahmawati, Adinda Aulia Respati Respati Rosariawari, Firra Rudi Wilson Sagita Rochman Salim, Hotimah Masdan Santika, Surya Saputra, Wahyu Syaifullah Jauharis Sari, Andina Paramita Siswanto Siswanto Siti Nuurlaily Rukmana, Siti Nuurlaily Stanislaus Yoseph Subairi Subairi Sumartono Sumartono Sumartono Suprayogi Suprayogi Suprayogi Suprayogi Surya Nanda Santika, Surya Takahiro Kitajima Takashi Yasuno Tresna Maulana Fahrudin Trimono Trimono, Trimono Wahyu Dirgantara Wahyuni, Dinar H S wangge, ferdinandus Weisrawei, Yosef Yasin, Andrew Arjunanda Yohanes U D Sipul Yosef Weisrawei Yosua Satria Bara Harmoni Yunia Dwie Nurchayanie Yusaq Tomo Ardianto