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All Journal Teknotan: Jurnal Industri Teknologi Pertanian agriTECH Jurnal Agroindustri Industria: Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Agroindustri Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Teknologi & Industri Hasil Pertanian TEKNOLOGI PANGAN : Media Informasi dan Komunikasi Ilmiah Teknologi Pertanian Jurnal Ilmiah Sinus Unri Conference Series: Community Engagement Cendekia Niaga Jumat Ekonomi: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Sagu Makara Journal of Technology IJAE Journal of Systems Engineering and Management JP2N: Jurnal Pengembangan Dan Pengabdian Nusantara Jcommits : The Journal of Community Empowerment, Innovation, and Sustainability
Rahmadini Payla Juarsa
Universitas Riau
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Ilmiah Sinus

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Peramalaan Permintaan Ayam Menggunakan Metode Penghalusan Eksponensial Sederhana pada UMKM Ayam Geprek Rizky Baru Juarsa, Rahmadini Payla; Kuniawan, Andry; Nurtani, Anjelina; Nainggolan, Ledy Pretty; Takifa, Adrina; Rasyid, T. Afnan; Aldino, Zulvani Dwi
Jurnal Ilmiah SINUS Vol 22, No 2 (2024): Vol. 22 No. 2, Juli 2024
Publisher : STMIK Sinar Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30646/sinus.v22i2.836

Abstract

Demand forecasting is crucial to ensure customer demands are met and the company does not experience shortages or surpluses of raw materials. Ayam Geprek Rizky Baru, a business that produces spicy fried chicken, currently relies solely on the owner's intuition to determine production and raw material stock. This often leads to mismatches with actual customer demand patterns. This study aimed to calculate chicken demand forecasts using a more quantifiable method, specifically the simple exponential smoothing method. The study used historical sales data from 2023 to forecast chicken demand for January 2024. The alpha values used were 0.1 and 0.2, with evaluation methods including MAD (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Square Error), and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The results indicated that an alpha value of 0.1 was better for forecasting chicken demand as it produced average MAD of 511.6782, MSE of 357263.36, and MAPE of 12.16%. Exponential smoothing using α = 0.1 resulted in a forecasted chicken demand for Ayam Geprek Rizky Baru in January 2024 of 4315.3064, or approximately 4316 pieces of chicken.
Co-Authors Addiena Syahvina Nasution Aldino, Zulvani Dwi Amrizal Amrizal Anania Rahmah Anaya, Nurul Fatya Andry Kurniawan, Mhd Angga Pramana Angga Pramana, Angga Anggi Nurikholifa Anthony Hamzah Aqil, Nazliana Aqila, Nazliana Arum Rovarti Ningsih Aulia, Zesma Ayu Diana Bela, Aldi Okta Chandra Gunawan Cibro, Royando Cika Maulidia Putri Dewi Fortuna Ayu Dewi, Yossie Kharisma Eka Kurnia, Eka Eko Wahyudi Erliza Hambali Erpiani Siregar Fadlila Endyra Fauziah Fachrani Fikratul Ikhsan Firdaus, Shiva Ainda Fortuna Ayu, Dewi Hanif, M. Khairul Hanik Atus Sangadah Hasnah AR, Nur Hasnah, Nur Imelda Yunita Imelda Yunita Jeany Ristia Jumiati, Melvy Kuniawan, Andry Lia Nurdianti M. Idris M. Idris Masyitah Maulina, Wulan Puti Mhd Andry Kurniawan Miftahulnisa Nurisnani Nabilla Prima Ambarwati Nadya Novianti Dwi Putri Nainggolan, Ledy Pretty Natasya Dwi Kinanti Ningsih, Sintia Widia Niskan Walid Masruri Nopiani, Yanti Nur Hasnah Nur Hasnah AR Nurtani, Anjelina Parsitogi, Bintang Pramana Angga Putra, Aidil Jaya Putri, Cika Maulidia Qalbi, Raihanul Rahmayani, Irma Rahmayuni Rahmayuni, Rahmayuni Raihanul Qalbi Raswen Efendi Rasyid, T. Afnan Robby Ilham Alfayet Siburian, Gilbert Ernest Simalongo, Ariandini Sintia Widia Ningsih SISPA PEBRIAN Situmorang, Budi Lambok Takifa, Adrina USMAN PATO Vivin Jenika Putri Yelmira Yelmira Zalfiatri Yudha Alvarizi