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All Journal Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Pelita Eksakta Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Mosharafa: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting
Tessy Octavia Mukhti
Universitas Negeri Padang
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : mathematical journal of modelling and forecasting

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Comparison of the Fuzzy Time Series Chen Model and the Heuristic Model in Forecasting the Number of International Tourists in West Sumatra Rizki Akbar; Fitri, Fadhilah; Vionanda, Dodi; Mukhti, Tessy Octavia
Mathematical Journal of Modelling and Forecasting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/mjmf.v2i1.20

Abstract

The Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Heuristic are two forecasting methods based on fuzzy logic used to predict values in time series. The FTS Chen and Heuristic models have almost identical forecasting processes, but the main difference lies in how they develop fuzzy logical relationships. The FTS Chen model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationship Groups obtained from the results of Fuzzy Logical Relationships for the forecasting process. On the other hand, the FTS Heuristic model uses Fuzzy Logical Relationships directly in the forecasting process. Fuzzy Logical Relationships are a collection of fuzzy logical relationships used to connect values in time series. By using Fuzzy Logical Relationships, the Heuristic model can predict values in time series more accurately and effectively. The forecasting is done to plan the development of tourism infrastructure, determine service needs, and optimize tourism promotion. The data shows that the number of foreign tourists visiting West Sumatra has continued to grow from 2006 to 2023. The comparison of the accuracy of the forecasting results of FTS Chen and Heuristic models for foreign tourists in West Sumatra yielded a MAPE of 0.241% for FTS model Chen and 0.194% for FTS model Heuristic. This indicates that the best forecasting model for foreign tourists is the Heuristic model due to its lower MAPE value.
Co-Authors Adinda Putri Adrianingsih, Narita Y. Afifah Nabilah Aisyah Novriani Andini Diva Luthfiyah anice kartika Annisa Ramadhani Azizah Apriyerni Berliana Nofriadi Bimbim Oktaviandi Bunga Miftahul Barokah Bunga Nafandra Devni Prima Sari Dhio Ervandi Dicha Putri Yeni Dina Fitria Dina Fitria, Dina Dinda Putri Adilla Dodi Vionanda Dodi Vionanda Dony Permana Ervi Dayana Putri Fadhilah Fitri Fadhilah Fitri Fajri Juli Rahman Nur Zendrato Fajri Juli Rahman Nur Zendrato Fathina Nafisa Fauzan Al Hamdani Siregar Fauzan Al-Hamdani Siregar Fauzan Arrahman Fauzan Gustiandra Fenni Kurnia Mutiya Figo Rahmatullah Fitri Hayati Fitri Fitri, Fadhilah Herlena Purnama Sari Khairani, Putri Rahmatun Khairanisa Salsabila Luthfiyah, Andini Diva M. Anfasa Prana Karil Muhammad Arief Rivano Nikma Hasanah Nonong Amalita Nurul Mulya Nurul Mulya Syahwa Olga Afrilly Putri Olivin Adelia Huqmi Padafani, Lekison Permana, Dony Putri fajriyanti nur Rahmadani Rahmat Kurniawan Rahmatul Annisa Rahmika Alya Razita Nur Amalina Reihan Dani Eka Saputra Retno Lis Megawati Rita Diana Rizki Akbar Rosa Salsabila Azarine Rudi Anggara Salma, Admi Sari Agustin Sari, Nilam N. Sari, Widia Kemala Sarmilah Sepniza Nasywa Septrina Kiki Arisandi Septrina Kiki Arisandi Siti Nurhaliza Sonia Ardhi Sri Wahyuni Suci Rahmadani Suliswati, Yeni Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syifa Miftahurrahmi Taslim, Fauziah Vania Riski Afifah Vinna Sulvia Wafiq Alya Aufa Widia Kemala Sari Yenni Kurniawati Yoli Marda Novi Yonggi Septa Pramadia Yonggi Yusra, Zulmi Yusra Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi Zulfadly Harman Harahap