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Muthahharah, Isma
Universitas Patompo Makassar
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Comparison of Farmer Exchange Rate Index Forecasting with Decomposition and Single Exponential Smoothing Method Muthahharah, Isma; Hafid, Hardianti
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i3.5491

Abstract

NTP forecasting is crucial for supporting appropriate policy-making. Therefore, this study aims to address the problem of selecting the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the Farmers’ Terms of Trade Index (FTTI). Specifically, the objective is to compare the accuracy of two time series forecasting methods, namely Decomposition and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), in forecasting the price index received by food crop farmers for the period 2020 to 2024. Both methods were evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as a measure of forecasting accuracy. The results show that the Decomposition method provides better forecasting accuracy, as indicated by lower RMSE values (RMSE = 1.846) than the SES method, both with α = 0.1 (RMSE = 7.37) and α = 0.6 (RMSE = 3.23). This finding suggests that the Decomposition method is better at capturing seasonal patterns and trends in the FTTI data than the SES method, which tends to produce larger errors. 
Co-Authors Abdul Rahman Agusalim Juhari Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Alfiah Nurfadhilah AM Hindi Amran Amrullah, Nursinah Andi Syukriani Aslindawati, Nur Asmayani Asmayani Asmirani, Sri BT Samsuddin, Yati Bungatang Bungatang Bungatang Bungatang Hamzah, Qardawi Hapsan, Amran Hardianti Hafid Hariani Harjuna Hariani Harjuna Harjuna, Hariani Inayanti Fatwa Indradewa, Rhian Islamiah, Farida Khadijah Khaidarsyah Khaidarsyah Mar'ah, Zakiyah Mar’ah, Zakiyah Masyitah Meliyana, Sitti Meliyana R, S.Pd, M.Si, Sitti Masyitah Muhammad Isbar Pratama Nur Aslindawati Pratiwi, Kartika Septiary Rahmat Hidayat Resmawan Resmawan Rusdianto Rusdianto Rusdianto Rusdi Rustam, Sitti Nail S. Sugianty Sapinah Sapinah Septiary Pratiwi, Kartika Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. St. Habibah, St. Habibah Sutamrin Syahrul Syahrul Syalsabila, Annisa Syamsinar Yati BT Samsuddin Zakiyah Mar'ah Zakiyah Mar’ah