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All Journal Media Statistika SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Varian Inferensi ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya ADMA: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Indonesian Journal of Fundamental Sciences SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Aswi, Aswi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

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Mapping the Relative Risk of Tuberculosis in Indonesia Using the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive Leroux Model Aswi, Aswi; Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati; Shanty, Meyrna Vidya; Herman, Nur Taj Alya’; Sukarna, Sukarna
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.6814

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by infection with the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis bacteria. Indonesia ranks second globally in terms of the number of TB cases, after India, followed by China. Modeling is needed to evaluate the relative risk (RR) of TB cases in Indonesia to identify areas that have a high RR of being infected with the bacteria. One approach used to estimate the RR of TB in Indonesia is Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR). This research aims to identify the RR rate of TB cases in Indonesia using the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux approach based on TB case data from 2021 to 2022. The best model selection is based on Deviance Information Criteria values, the Watanabe Akaike Information, and residuals from Modified Moran's I. Analysis results shows that in 2021, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (0.5; 0.5) is the best model. DKI Jakarta Province has the highest while Bali Province has the lowest RR. In 2022, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (1;0.01) is the best model, with DKI Jakarta Province still having the highest RR, while Bali still has the lowest RR.
Implementation of the Bayesian Spatial Model for Mapping the Relative Risk of HIV Cases in Makassar City Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun; Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat , Rahmat
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.9770

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) remains a major public health challenge in Indonesia, including Makassar City. This study aims to estimate and map the relative risk (RR) of HIV cases in Makassar City using the Bayesian spatial Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Leroux model. The dataset comprises the number of HIV cases and the population of each district, with covariates including distance to the city center and population density. Results of Moran's I test indicated significant spatial autocorrelation in HIV cases across Makassar City. Model selection based on the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) identified the optimal model as the CAR Leroux with an Invers-Gamma (IG) hyperprior (0.5;0.0005) and distance as a covariate, yielding the lowest DIC and WAIC values. The estimation results demonstrated that distance is negatively associated with HIV incidence. The highest RR was observed in Ujung Pandang district, while the lowest was in Biringkanaya District. These findings may provide a basis for identifying priority intervention areas and support the development of more targeted and effective HIV elimination strategies.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahmat Abidin, Muh. Zulkifli Abidin, Muhammad Rais Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwarni Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Assagaf, Said Fachry Awaluddin Awaluddin Awi Dassa, Awi Awi, Awi Bakri, Nurul Aulya Cramb, Susanna Diana Eka Pratiwi Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fajar Arwadi Folorunso, Serifat Adedamola Haekal, Muh. Fahri Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Hidayat , Rahmat Hisyam Ihsan Ikhwana, Nur Isnaini, Wulan Maulia Lalu Ramzy Rahmanda M. Miftach Fakhri Mahadtir, Muhamad Mangkona, Andi Ilham Azhar Mar'ah, Zakiyah Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Fahmuddin Muttaqin, Imam Akbar Natalia, Derliani Novianti, Andi Rima Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Nurhilaliyah, Nurhilaliyah Nurwan, Nurwan Oktaviana Oktaviana Palarungi, Andi Gagah Poerwanto, Bobby Poewanto, Bobby Putri Ananda, Elma Yulia Putri, Siti Choiratun Aisyah Putri, Siti Choirotun Aisyah Rahmat Hidayat Rais, Zulkifli Ramadani, Reski Aulia Risma Mastory Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana S, Muhammad Fahmuddin Saleh, Andi Rahmat Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Sudarmin Sudarmin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna, Sukarna Sulistiawaty Sulistiawaty, Sulistiawaty Suwardi Annas Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi Vivianti Wahidah Sanusi Yassar, La Ode Salman Yudi, Wanda Yunus, Sitti Rahma