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Ulfah Mediaty Arief
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Journal : STATISTIKA

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Prediksi Ketersediaan Tenaga Listrik di Jawa Tengah dengan Forecast Linear dan Error Trend Seasonality menggunakan Excel Ulfah Mediaty Arief; Sri Sukamta; Dewi Anggriani; Moh. Umar Dani Atik
Statistika Vol. 24 No. 1 (2024): Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Islam Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/statistika.v24i1.3277

Abstract

ABSTRAK Dalam era pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kemajuan teknologi yang pesat, kebutuhan akan pasokan listrik yang konsisten semakin mendesak. Penelitian ini membandingkan metode prediksi error trend seasonality (ETS) dan prediksi linear untuk mengantisipasi ketersediaan listrik di Jawa Tengah, menggunakan data dari 2011 hingga 2021. Evaluasi menunjukkan bahwa metode prediksi linear lebih akurat dengan persentase kesalahan lebih rendah dibandingkan error trend seasonality (ETS). Prediksi menunjukkan tren positif peningkatan ketersediaan listrik, membuka peluang pengembangan industri dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional. Keandalan prediksi linear memberikan dasar yang solid untuk pengambilan keputusan di sektor energi. Rekomendasi untuk meningkatkan keandalan prediksi di masa depan mencakup pemantauan dan pembaruan data, serta melibatkan pemangku kepentingan dan ahli energi dalam pengambilan keputusan. Penelitian ini diharapkan memberikan panduan bagi pembuat kebijakan dan pihak terkait dalam mengelola ketersediaan energi listrik secara efisien di Jawa Tengah. ABSTRACT In an era of rapid economic growth and technological progress, the need for a consistent electricity supply is increasingly urgent. This research compares the error trend seasonality prediction (ETS) method and linear prediction to anticipate electricity availability in Central Java, using data from 2011 to 2021. The evaluation shows that the linear prediction method is more accurate with a lower error percentage than error trend seasonality (ETS). Predictions show a positive trend of increasing electricity availability, opening up opportunities for industrial development and regional economic growth. The reliability of linear predictions provides a solid basis for decision making in the energy sector. Recommendations to improve the reliability of future predictions include monitoring and updating data, as well as involving stakeholders and energy experts in decision making. This research is expected to provide guidance for policy holders and related parties in managing the availability of electrical energy efficiently in Central Java.
Co-Authors Achmad Rifaldi Ade Putra Adhim Bagas Wisnu Aji Aditya Permana Afdam, Delano Hafis Agus Suryanto Ahmad Fashiha Hastawan Alfian Faiz Alrahma, Hanan Iqbal Anan Nugroho Ananda, Bella Risky Anantyo, Andika Andri Setiyawan Anggun Farisyatul Muslimah Arief Yulianto Bagas Perdana Abiyasa Baskoro, Aldo Luhung Baswara, Satsya Yoga Dewi Anggriani Dhidik Prastiyanto Djuniadi Djuniadi Dyah Nurani Setyaningsih Dyah Nurani Setyaningsih Dzulfikar, Andi Muhammad Ekarini, Fitria Eko Supraptono Faiz, Alfian Fathimah, Aisya Febianingrum, Anggun Fia Feddy Setio Pribadi Firdaus, Agung Adi Hanrian Rossa Hartoyo, Adhita Meizaldi Hesti Wahyu Nugroho, Hesti Wahyu I Made Sudana Indah Novi Yarman Intan Dwi Ariyani Maulana, Alfan Mihardja, Soma Moh. Umar Dani Atik Mubarak, Raihan Fa'iq Muhammad Jejen Sukrilah Mukti, Gandhi Satria Nadia, Amalia Khairun Noor Hudallah Nugroho, Anan Nur Iksan Nur Qudus Oktiagi, Radiva Hera Pradana, Irzhafran Ridho Praditya, Ambrosius Lingga Prakoso, Bima Dwi Pramudyo Wicaksono Pranata, Bayu Ari Pranata, Bayu Ari Prasetya, Johanes Adi Prawidana Kurniawan Puji, Nunuk Riza Putra Pratama, Mohammad Hazim Putri Khoirin Nashiroh Qunefi, Fuat Riana Defi Mahadji Putri Rifaldi, Achmad Samsudin Anis Saptriana Suryanto, Saptriana Septariza, Devina Ayu Septiani, Amalia Setiyo Wahyono, Setiyo Shofiani, Diah Sri Sukamta Sri Sukamta Sugeng Purbawanto Sugeng Purbawanto Sukamta, Sri - Sukrina, Nur Fitri Sulistyawan, Vera Noviana Supraptono , Eko Suryani, Titin Suwito Eko Pramono Syahida Mu’aliman Syarif Hidayatulloh Talitha Widiatningrum Tatyantoro Andrasto Tunnisa, Salsabila Wafa', Almas Diqya Wahyu Adi Ramadan Wahyudi, Tri Agus Wara Dyah Pita Rengga Wibowo, Apriansyah Wibowo, Salvo Eka Yarman, Indah Novi Yeri Sutopo Yulaekha, Novita Rizka Yulaekha, Novita Rizka