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Analysis of the Relationship between Literacy, Numeracy and School Accreditation Rankings in Sulawesi Using Ordinal Logistic Regression and K-Nearest Neighbors Andi Illa Erviani Nensi; Dela Gustiara; Shalshabilla Shafa; Budi Susetyo
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 02 (June 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/mka1m371

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between literacy and numeracy achievement and school accreditation rankings in the Sulawesi region and to compare the performance of two classification methods, namely ordinal logistic regression and the nearest neighbor method. The data used came from the results of the 2023 and 2024 national school assessments with response variables in the form of tiered school accreditation rankings and predictor variables in the form of literacy and numeracy scores. The analysis began with data exploration to understand the characteristics of distribution and class imbalance, then continued with modeling using two scenarios, namely without and with extreme value handling. Ordinal logistic regression was constructed using a cumulative probability approach and tested through assumption checking, parameter significance, and performance evaluation. The nearest neighbor method was applied through data normalization and parameter tuning to obtain the optimal configuration, and compared between conditions with and without class balancing. The results showed that literacy, especially in 2024, had a significant effect on increasing the probability of higher school accreditation, with an ordinal logistic regression model accuracy rate of around 58% and a balanced accuracy of around 65%. The KNN method produced higher prediction accuracy, around 66%, but had limitations in distinguishing minority classes. These findings emphasize the importance of literacy as a key indicator of school quality and provide a basis for selecting classification methods according to the analysis objectives.
Comparative Study of Hybrid ARIMA-LSTM and CNN-LSTM for Palm Oil Price Forecasting Rizki Alifah Putri; Khairil Anwar Notodiputro; Budi Susetyo
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 10, No 1 (2026): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v10i1.27631

Abstract

The forecasting of highly volatile time series data remains a significant challenge due to complex, non-linear patterns. This study compared the performance of two hybrid frameworks, ARIMA-LSTM and CNN-LSTM, which were designed to integrate the statistical strengths of traditional models with the computational power of deep learning. In these architectures, the ARIMA component was utilized to extract linear trends, while the LSTM and CNN layers were employed to identify and manage non-linear dynamics within the data. Utilizing 384 monthly palm oil price data points (1993-2024) sourced from FRED, the models were evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) metric. The results demonstrated that the hybrid CNN-LSTM outperformed the ARIMA-LSTM and individual models, achieving a superior MAPE of 6.69%. These findings indicated that the integration of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks was more effective in capturing the complexities of price fluctuations. Practically, the study concluded that accurate forecasting served as a critical tool for market stabilization, thereby supporting broader goals of financial certainty and ecological sustainability.
Co-Authors Aam Alamudi Aceng Komarudin Mutaqin Aditya Ramadhan adwendi, satria june Agus Mohamad Soleh Ahmad Ansori Mattjik Aji Hamim Wigena Akbar Rizki Amir, Sulfikar Anak Agung Istri Sri Wiadnyani Anang Kurnia Andi Illa Erviani Nensi Andina Fahriya Anis Sulistiyowati Anisa, Rahma ASEP SAEFUDDIN Aulia Dwi Oktavia Aulia Rizki Firdawanti Aunuddin Aunuddin Bagus Sartono Bambang H. Trisasongko Bambang Juanda Brian G. Lees Cici Suhaeni Cut N. Ummu Athiyah DAMAYANTI BUCHORI Darfiana Nur Dela Gustiara Dewi Jasmina Dewi Jasmina, Dewi Dhea Dewanti Dian Kurniasari Dito, Gerry Alfa Dyah R. Panuju Endah Febrianti Erfiani Erfiani Fadjrian Imran Fahriya, Andina Faisal Arkan Farit Mochamad Afendi Fitrianto, Anwar Gerry Alfa Dito H Karwono Hafidz Muksin Hamid, Assyifa Lala Pratiwi Hari Wijayanto Herlina Herlina Hermawati, Neni Hiola, Yani Prihantini I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra I Made Sumertajaya Inayatul Izzati Diana Yusuf Indahwati Indahwati Indahwati Indahwati, NFN Intan Juliana Panjaitan Iswan Achlan Setiawan Izzati Rahmi HG Jap Ee Jia Jia, Jap Ee Karwono, H Kesuma Millati Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Khikmah, Khusnia Nurul Kristuisno Martsuyanto Kapiluka Kriswan, Suliana Kusman Sadik Kusni Rohani Rumahorbo La Ode Abdul Rahman La Ode Abdul Rahman La Ode Abdul Rahman M Nur Aidi M Nur Aidi, M Nur Mahmud A. Raimadoya Mohammad Masjkur Muh Nur Fiqri Adham Muhammad Amirullah Yusuf Albasia Muhammad Nur Aidi Muhammad Sayuti Mustofa Usman Nurfadilah, Khalilah Nurfajrin, Tria Ermina Nurul Qomariasih Pannu, Abdullah Pika Silvianti Pika Silvianti Putri, Mega Ramatika Qalbi, Asyifah Qomariasih, Nurul Rachman, Nurul Aulia Rahma Anisa Rahmawat, NFN Rahmawati, nFN Rais Ratnasari, Andika Putri Rifannisa Bahar Rifki Hamdani Rizki Alifah Putri Rizki, Akbar Robert, Zahira Rahvenia Safitri, Wa Ode Rahmalia Sanusi, Ratna Nur Mustika Satriyo Wibowo Sembiring, Febryna Shalshabilla Shafa Sri Ningsih Desi Afriany Sulandra, Ardelia Maharani Sulfikar Amir Suliana Kriswan Supriatin, Febriyani Eka Syahrir, Nur Hilal A. Syahrir, Nur Hilal A. Syella Zignora Limba Sylvia P. Soetantyo Syukri, Nabila Tina Aris Perhati Tiya Wulandari Ulfa Afilia Shofa Utami Dyah Syafitri Wan Muhamad, Wan Zuki Azman Wan Zuki Azman Wan Muhamad Wan Zuki Azman Wan Muhamad Warsono Wulan Andriyani Pangestu Yani Prihantini Hiola Yasmin Erika Faridhan Zahira Rahvenia Robert Zainal A Koemadji Zulhijrah