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PERAMALAN HARGA JUAL CABAI MERAH DI PASAR RAKYAT KEMANG PERUSAHAAN UMUM DAERAH PASAR TOHAGA KABUPATEN BOGOR Dardanella, Derry; Prayudha Hidayat, Agung; Husen Santosa, Sesar; Siskandar, Ridwan
Jurnal Sains Indonesia Vol. 3 No. 1 (2022): Volume 3, Nomor 1, 2022 (Maret)
Publisher : PUSAT SAINS INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59897/jsi.v3i1.79

Abstract

Cabai merah merupakan salah satu komoditas pertanian yang sering mengalami fluktuasi harga jual baik ditingkat petani maupun konsumen. Fluktuasi harga ini dianggap menjadi salah satu penyebab terjadinya inflasi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan harga jual cabai merah di tingkat konsumen berdasarkan data penjualan cabai merah di Pasar Rakyat Kemang Perumda Pasar Tohaga Kabupaten Bogor. Pada penelitian dilakukan perbandingan dua metode peramalan kuantitatif yaitu Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa metode Exponential Smoothing memiliki hasil lebih baik, dimana nilai ukuran kesalahan MAD, MAE, dan MAPE memiliki nilai yang lebih kecil dibandingkan Moving Average sehingga harga jual cabai merah di periode Januari 2022 diperkirakan sebesar Rp. 27.579,-
ANALISIS KEBUTUHAN DISTRIBUSI BARANG DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Husen Santosa, Sesar; Siskandar, Ridwan; Aziz Husyairi, Khoirul
Jurnal Sains Indonesia Vol. 3 No. 3 (2022): Volume 3, Nomor 3, 2022 (November)
Publisher : PUSAT SAINS INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59897/jsi.v3i3.108

Abstract

The key to the success of the distribution of goods by connecting the internal supply chain with consumers where the internal supply chain refers to orders. The purpose of this study is to develop a model for the number of goods distribution needs in a freight forwarding company with a Goods simulation approach. The results showed that the average number of goods distribution needs was 231,444 bags. This is a reference for freight forwarding companies in sending goods related to the number of transportation modes and shipping routes
Penjadwalan Produksi Optimal Air Mineral Kemasan Gelas Menggunakan Pendekatan jadwal Induk Produksi Santosa, Sesar Husen; Indrawan, Purana; Apriliani, Fany; Siskandar, Ridwan; Nabil Bayyinah, Aulia; Septiyaningsih, Lutfi
Jurnal Sains Indonesia Vol. 4 No. 3 (2023): Vol 4 No 3 (2023): Volume 3, Nomor 3, 2023 (November)
Publisher : PUSAT SAINS INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59897/jsi.v4i3.169

Abstract

The Stock buildup problem has led to an increase in product rejects at PT Marina. This condition is caused because the company cannot identify fluctuating demand conditions and only focuses on Customer Orders. Based on this problem, an analysis was carried out regarding demand using the Multiplicative decomposition forecasting technique. The company has three seasons in the demand for glass bottled water products. Based on the demand forecasting analysis results, the demand regression model is demand (y) = 153052 + 139.88 period (x). Based on the regression results, the demand forecast results are 159,819 boxes. The results of production schedules are based on the results of demand forecasting, so the Stock condition in the company is obtained, namely 3430 - 4760 boxes/week, and this condition is the optimal condition because it is below the maximum product inventory capacity in the company.
Peramalan Permintaan Sepatu Sandal pada UMKM Mulyaharja Kota Bogor Irawan, Suhendi; Sinaga, Antonya Rumondang; Kartinawati, Annisa; Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Dardanella, Derry; Santosa, Sesar Husen; Indrawan, Purana; Apriliani, Fany; Yusri, Doni; Wijaya, Hendri; Pangestu, Fattah Jati; Rahmawati, Novia
Go-Integratif : Jurnal Teknik Sistem dan Industri Vol 5 No 02 (2024): Go-Integratif : Jurnal Teknik Sistem dan Industri
Publisher : Engineering Faculty at Universitas Singaperbangsa Karawang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35261/gijtsi.v5i02.12534

Abstract

MSMEs are one of the important sectors to support economic growth. In the midst of increasingly tight competition, business actors need to implement effective strategies to anticipate fluctuations in market demand so that accurate demand forecasting is a crucial step to ensure optimal stock availability. Currently, MSMEs only make predictions based on instinct and experience, not based on mathematical calculations, so that sometimes there is overstock or understock of the goods produced. This study analyzes the demand for sandals and shoes at MSME Mulyaharja, Bogor City using the moving average and exponential smoothing methods. The purpose of this study is to determine the most accurate forecasting method to optimize inventory management and minimize the risk of shortages or excess stock. Historical sales data for one year is used as the basis for the analysis. The results of the comparative analysis of forecasting errors show that the Moving average method with 2 periods provides the most accurate results, with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value of 54, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 3380, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 18%. The conclusion of this study is that the 2-period Moving average method is the best method to be applied to Mulyaharja UMKM, by applying this forecasting method, overstock and understock of product inventory can be reduced because the amount of production produced is close to the amount of customer demand.
MILLED CASSAVA PRODUCTION CAPACITY MODEL THROUGH MACHINE EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS Santosa, Sesar Husen
Journal of Industrial Engineering Management Vol 9, No 3 (2024): Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management
Publisher : Center for Study and Journal Management FTI UMI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33536/jiem.v9i3.1502

Abstract

The very high demand for the tapioca flour industry causes good quality and quantity tapioca flour. This condition causes the tapioca flour SMIs have to manage production activities to meet the needs of the industry. The flour production process cannot be separated from the cassava milling machine effectiveness. Based on the results of the milling machine analysis for one year, the availability = 65,16%, performance = 53.62%, Quality Rate = 89.60% and OEE = 31.88%. Based on the OEE value and the amount of production, the regression equation model is obtained, namely ground cassava (Kg) = 5155 + 11037 OEE with Determination value (R2) = 94,8 %. This regression model is used as the basis for determining the ideal production capacity of ground cassava in SMIs. According to Seiichi Nakajima's standard ideal OEE, which is 85%, the ideal production capacity of ground cassava in SMIs is 14,536 kg/month based on the regression model. 
ANALISIS PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN PENENTUAN SUPPLIER TELUR AYAM MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE INDEX Santosa, Sesar Husen; Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Siskandar, Ridwan
Jurnal Sains Terapan : Wahana Informasi dan Alih Teknologi Pertanian Vol. 15 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Sains Terapan: Wahana Informasi dan Alih Teknologi Pertanian
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jstsv.15.1.25-31

Abstract

Permasalahan pasokan dan harga dalam rantai pasok telur ayam dimulai dari Agen telur dimana agen telur merupakan key aktor dalam proses distribusi produk sampai kekonsumen akhir. Pemilihan supplier yang dapat merealisasikan jumlah dan kualitas produk telur ayam menjadi permasalahan. Permasalahan pasokan yang tidak sesuai dengan kebutuhan dipengaruhi oleh harga (Rp/peti), lead time pengiriman (hari), dan kapasitas distribusi (peti). Berdasarkan hasil analisis penentuan supplier ideal menggunakan model Composite Performance Index (CPI) didapatkan bobot tingkat kepentingan kriteria untuk harga adalah 0,4, lead time pengiriman adalah 0,3 dan kapasitas distribusi adalah 0,2. Berdasarkan hasil CPI didapatkan nilai alternatif supplier agam adalah 104,2; supplier hejo 113,46; supplier maju berkah 125 dan Supplier Mandiri adalah 95,28. Berdasarkan nilai CPI didapatkan supplier terpilih untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pasokan agen telur adalah supplier hejo dengan nilai CPI 113,46. Berdasarkan hasil analisis CPI maka supplier telur ayam yang memiliki kemampuan untuk pasokan sesuai dengan kebutuhan kualitas dan kuantitas telur ayam adalah supplier hejo.
LB Lamp Production Planning Based on Fuzzy Logic Approach at PT XYZ Bayyinah, Aulia Nabil; Santosa, Sesar Husen
IJIEM - Indonesian Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Vol 6, No 1: February 2025
Publisher : Program Pascasarjana Magister Teknik Industri Universitas Mercu Buana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22441/ijiem.v6i1.26757

Abstract

Increasingly tight competition in the industrial market encourages companies to optimize production planning to meet customer demand efficiently. Effective production planning is key in achieving this goal, as it guides entities towards achieving their goals appropriately. This research aims to develop a fuzzy method for production planning at PT XYZ, a lamp manufacturing company. This method is designed to assist PT XYZ The approach used in this research includes historical data analysis, forecasting techniques using the time series method, calculating raw material inventory, and applying fuzzy logic to determine optimal production quantities. Based on the results of fuzzy calculations, the production amount for the next period of 7,000 product units can be a suggestion for companies to avoid production shortages and excesses due to uncertainty in product demand. 
Pelatihan Pengembangan Alat Komunikasi Cerdas Keamanan Lingkungan Berbasis Smartphone di Karang Taruna Desa Pakapasan Girang, Kabupaten Kuningan, Jawa Barat Siskandar, Ridwan; Santosa, Sesar Husen; Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Suwanda, Bayu Suriaatmaja; Vibowo, Heryudianto; Barokah, Wuliddah Tamsil; Habiburrahman, Muhammad; Faqihhudin, Muhammad Raka; Nerol, Ivan De
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bhinneka Vol. 3 No. 4 (2025): Bulan Juli
Publisher : Bhinneka Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58266/jpmb.v3i4.259

Abstract

Permasalahan kemamanan di perumahan saat ini memerlukan pengelolaan sistem yang terintegrasi antara seluruh warga, pihak keamanan dan aparatur desa. Kejahatan sering kali masuk ke permukiman warga di wilayah desa dalam bentuk pencurian atau perampokan yang menimbulkan korban dan tidak dapat diatasi dengan sistem keamanan tradisional. Kondisi ini disebabkan karena tidak adanya sistem komunikasi yang cepat dan efektif antar warga untuk segera berkumpul berbasis smartphone sehingga penanganan kejahatan menjadi terlambat. Berdasarkan permasalahan ini maka dikembangkan aplikasi komunikasi cerdas berbasis smartphone yang terhubung dengan pengeras suara secara real time untuk memberikan informasi masalah keamanan sehingga warga dapat segera berkumpul di lokasi. Pengabdian ini menggunakan dua tahapan yaitu tahap pelatihan pembuatan alat komunikasi cerdas dan pelatihan implementasi alat komunikasi cerdas berdasarkan lokasi ideal sehingga warga dengan mudah mendapatkan informasi. Hasil evaluasi menggunakan rank spearman berdasarkan pre-test dan post-test didapatkan kegiatan ini memiliki kolerasi terhadap peningkatan pengetahuan peserta terhadap fungsi dan cara membuat modul alat komunikasi cerdas yang terintegrasi dengan aplikasi smartphone dengan nilai korelasi 80%. Berdasarkan analsis bayes lokasi alat komunikasi cerdas diimplementasikan disalah satu rumah warga sehingga informasi keamanan dapat ditermia dengan cepat oleh seluruh warga desa dengan nilai alternatif 4,2
Raw material planning for tapioca flour production based on fuzzy logic approach: a case study Santosa, Sesar Husen; Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Siskandar, Ridwan
Jurnal Sistem dan Manajemen Industri Vol. 6 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Serang Raya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30656/jsmi.v6i1.4594

Abstract

The availability of cassava raw materials influences tapioca flour production at small and medium industry's (SMIs) Bogor Regency. Cassava raw material is a crucial factor in producing cassava yields, affecting the amount of tapioca flour production. Planning for cassava raw material must be carried out properly because the quality and quantity of cassava must be maintained to achieve the tapioca flour production target. The results of forecasting the demand for tapioca flour in SMIs using the Multiplicative Decomposition method were 2566 kg with MAD = 173.73 and MAPE = 0.08. Based on the analysis of the effectiveness of the grinding machine, the average value of OEE for one year is 0.32 (32%). Based on the value of demand forecasting results, milling machine OEE and tapioca flour prices, an analysis of cassava raw material needs are carried out using a fuzzy logic approach. The membership set used is Triangular and Trapezoidal Membership Function and Fuzzy Rule Base as many as 81 possibilities. The defuzzification of cassava raw material requirements in SMIs is 17600 kg. Based on the results of defuzzification, the need for raw materials must be increased so that the demand for tapioca flour can be achieved.
Optimizing Last-Mile Delivery and Transportation Modes for the Tempe Supply Chain Hidayat, Agung Prayudha; Santosa, Sesar Husen; Siskandar, Ridwan; Zahran, Fadhil Rizqi Az; Ananda, Dea; Savanah, Khadijah Meutia; Aisyah, Siti; Putri, Stevani; Nalanaya, Nalanaya
Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): October
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/jutin.v8i4.41195

Abstract

Tempe supply chain is managing the distribution flow of production until it reaches consumers. The distribution flow must be arranged and managed effectively and efficiently to increase the company's productivity and minimize costs. Method is used in this research are Saving Matrix for optimizing route and Break Even Point (BEP) for evaluating the mode Transportation. The research results show that selected route to consumers is obtained via the G-C1-C2-C5-C6-C3-C4-G route with an optimal capacity of 1500 boxes. Meanwhile, an evaluation of the transportation modes owned shows that the company can leaseif the average delivery in one year is below 1000 boxes and has its own mode if deliveries are above 1000 boxes.
Co-Authors Agung Prayudha Hidayat Aldiyansyah Aleida, Silvera Marsya Anamy, Fathia Marcha Ananda, Dea Angga Eben Ezer Annisa Kartinawati Antonio Banggas Gregory Sinaga Apristio Faza Ridhar Rahman Aqim Try Kurnia Ardani, Ilham Azka Khairani Marisda Bachtiar, Willy Barokah, Wuliddah Tamsil Bayu Suriaatmaja Suwanda Bayu Suriaatmaja Suwanda Bayyinah, Aulia Nabil Billi Rifa Kusumah Bintang Aprilio Dardanella, Derry Derry Dardanella Divo Wibowo Adi Doni Yusri Fany Apriliani Faqihhudin, Muhammad Raka Fauzan Naufal Gibran Fionando Emir Satriadana Firman Muhammad Basar Ghailan Arhab Hafiz Agi Alfasih Hendri Wijaya, Hendri Herti Herti Heryudianto Vibowo Hidayat, Agung Prayudha Hidayat Husyairi, Khoirul Aziz Iklima Istiqomah Ilham Ardani Indrawan, Purana Insani, Mutiara Fitria Irfan Tigranaufal Nugraha Irmansyah Irmansyah Irzaman, Irzaman Jimmy Mohamad Alpino Anak Gumay Keinanjung Ruswandi Laily Rochmatul Charky Lutfi Aziz Febrika Ardy Madyananda, Fauzaan Fadhlurrohman Marithasari, Harries Mohammad Akbar Alfa Dirk Steyer Muhamad Raihan Afarel Nadji Baraba Muhamad Zikri Abdillah Muhammad Al-Ghifari Muhammad Danang Mukti Darmawan Muhammad Danang Mukti Darmawan Muhammad Fakhri Alauddin Muhammad Habiburrahman, Muhammad Muhammad Ifan Al Aziz Nabil Bayyinah, Aulia Nalanaya, Nalanaya Nanda Octavia Nanda Octavia Nayla Cahya Kamila Nerol, Ivan De Noer A Indrawan Nourma Ayuadika Novia Rahmawati Pamungkas, Genta Yoga Pane, Nelson Andreas Pangestu, Fattah Jati Prayuda Hidayat, Agung Purnomo, Hanif Putri, Stevani Rafiq Rizki Prabowo Refiansyah Nur Renny Soelistiyowati Revanda Arifia Ridwan Siskandar Rina Martini Ringga Gilang Baskoro Rizkiriani, Annisa Robby Priaji Sakti Samsudin, Discania Martiani Savanah, Khadijah Meutia Septiyaningsih, Lutfi Sinaga, Antonya Rumondang Siskandar, Ridwan Siskandar Sista Naelly Adzimi Siti Aisyah Suhendar Sulaeman Suhendi Irawan Sulaeman, Suhendar Susanti, Raskia Suwanda, Bayu Suriaatmaja Tiara Safitrah Vina Puspitasari Wiyanto, Renhard Cornelis Wiyoto Wiyoto Zahran, Fadhil Rizqi Az Zahrani, Firda Alifathuz Zaki Rafi Athallah