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All Journal Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) JOURNAL OF INFORMATICS AND TELECOMMUNICATION ENGINEERING KOMIK (Konferensi Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer) Jurnal Ilmiah Sinus JPPM (Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat) METIK JURNAL Jurnal Informatika Kaputama (JIK) Jurnal Mantik Rambideun : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Tika Mejuajua TECHSI - Jurnal Teknik Informatika Sisfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Sistem Informasi Lentera
Angga Pratama
Universitas Malikussaleh
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Other

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A Comparison Of Multiple Linear Regression And Single Exponential Smoothing For Predicting Rice Production In North Aceh Cindy Anindia Putri; Angga Pratama; Zalfie Ardian
Sisfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Sistem Informasi Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Sisfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Sistem Informasi, Mei 2026
Publisher : Universitas Malikussaleh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/sisfo.v10i1.27049

Abstract

North Aceh Regency is the largest rice producer in Aceh Province; however, rice production has fluctuated and shown a downward trend from 2019 to 2023. This study aims to analyze the factors influencing rice production and to compare the Multiple Linear Regression and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) methods in predicting rice production in North Aceh Regency. The variables used include harvested area, productivity, rainfall, and flooding. The Multiple Linear Regression method was used to analyze the relationships among variables, while SES was used to make predictions based on historical data. The analysis results indicate that productivity has the greatest influence on rice production, followed by harvested area. Rainfall and flooding also affect production, but their influence is relatively small. Model evaluation shows that Multiple Linear Regression has an MSE of 2156056.09, a MAD of 627, and a MAPE of 9.04%, which is better than Single Exponential Smoothing with an MSE of 51,613,195, a MAD of 3,867, and a MAPE of 28.57%. Based on these results, the Multiple Linear Regression method has a higher level of accuracy in predicting rice production in North Aceh.
Co-Authors Abdillah Akbar Harahap Abror Abror Afta Adiyatma Wicaksana Afta Adiyatma Wicaksana Ananda Faridhatul Ulva Ar Razi Burhanuddin Burhanuddin Cindy Anindia Putri Cut Ita Erliana Desuriyan Ramadhan Desvina Yulisda Eka Susanti Emi Maulani Eri Saputra Eza Pradanta Sitepu Fachrurrazi Fachrurrazi Fajar Tri Tri Anjani Fakrurrazi Hafizh Al Kautsar Aidilof Himmatur Rija ilham - sahputra Ilham Saputra Ilham Saputra Intan Aquiera Janner Simarmata M Wahyu Suranta Maulida Hasbi Mochamad Ari Saptari Muhammad Habib Mutammimul Ula Mutiara Fajar Rafika Rafika Ria Zulhusna Richki Hardi Rizki Mela Kurnia Rizki Setiawan Rizky Putra Fhonna Salamah Salamah Sapna Biby Sayed Fachrurrazi Suheri Sujacka Retno Syukriah Syukriah Tsania Asha Fadilah Daulay Veri Ilhadi Wiwik Handayani yuli asbar Yulisda, Desvina Yunia Silfitri Yusdiana Yusdiana Zahratul Fitri Zalfie Ardian Ziky Auliansyah Zurhijjah Zurhijjah