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FORECASTING THE INDONESIAN RURAL BANKS’ PROFITABILITY: THE CASE OF DYNAMIC AND STATIC FORECASTING Regi Muzio Ponziani
International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR) Vol 6, No 4 (2022): IJEBAR, Vol. 6 Issue 4, December 2022
Publisher : LPPM ITB AAS INDONESIA (d.h STIE AAS Surakarta)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29040/ijebar.v6i4.6753

This research aims to forecast the profitability of Indonesian rural banks. The forecasting methods employed dynamic and static forecasting. Dynamic forecasting was represented by regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors while static forecasting was represented by Holt-Winters seasonality and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The regression with ARIMA errors included additional independent variables namely inflation and interest rate. The dependent variable being forecast was return on assets (ROA) of the rural banks. The data extended from January 2010 to July 2021. The data will be divided into training and test data. Training data extended from January 2010 to December 2020. The test data extended from January 2021 to July 2021. Training data were used to derive the models. The models generated then were used to yield forecasts for January until July 2021. The forecasts were later compared to the test data for accuracy. The research found that regression with ARIMA errors had the best forecast accuracy, followed by SARIMA and Holt-Winters seasonality. Therefore, the research proposed that regulators, analysts and all stakeholders of the Indonesian rural banks employ regression with ARIMA errors to predict the profitability and financial position of the rural banks.

Foreign exchange volatility modeling of Southeast Asian major economies Ponziani, Regi Muzio
Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura Vol. 22 No. 2 (2019): August - November 2019
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v22i2.1912

This study investigates the exchange rate volatility model in Southeast Asian countries. The countries selected were Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, The Philippines, Vietnam, and Singapore. This study aims to model the volatility of the regional currency exchange rate against the international currency, i.e., the US Dollar. The period covered in this study extended from 1 January 2013 until 31 July 2019. These were the daily exchange rates of 7 currencies of Southeast Asian countries. The currency involved were Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), Malaysian Ringgit (MYR), Thai Baht (THB), The Philippine Peso (PHP), Vietnam Dong (VND), and Singaporean Dollar (SGD). All currencies were measured in the exchange rate against the US Dollar (USD). The result indicated that PARCH model is the best method to explain the movement of MYR, VND, and SGD. GARCH can model THB and PHP. Only IDR that has volatility explainable by TARCH.

Inflation forecasting using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models Ponziani, Regi Muzio
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol 24, No 2: October 2023
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v24i2.17620

This study attempts to evaluate and compare the inflation-predicting performance of several ARDL models. Since there was no cointegration, the ARDL model does not employ an error correction term. Subsequently, model development showed that ARDL(2,2) should be used. Besides the formally developed model, some other more arbitrarily chosen ARDL models were also included, i.e., ARDL(1,1), ARDL(2,0), ARDL(1,0), ARDL(0,1), and ARDL(0,2). This research measures forecasting performance with inflation as the forecasting object. The duration of the monthly inflation statistics ranged from January 2011 to July 2022. The data were separated into two categories. The training data ranged between January 2011 and December 2021. After getting the appropriate parameters from the training data, the models generated projections from January 2022 to July 2022. The research determined that ARDL (1,0) was the most accurate inflation forecasting model, followed by ARDL (0,2) and formally constructed ARDL(2,2) finished in fourth place. This study suggests that the formal development of ARDL for forecasting purposes is unnecessary. Formal ARDL development is more appropriate for root cause analysis. In addition, the single autoregressive component indicates that most of the inflation value's information originated from the prior period. This suggests that the previous period's value is Indonesia's most significant predictor of inflation. The impact of greater period lags on inflation forecasting diminishes immediately.

THE RESPONSE OF DEPOSITS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM TO SHOCKS IN THE MACROECONOMY Theola, Veliana; Ponziani, Regi Muzio
Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA) 7th National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Pelita Harapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

This study aims at determining the response of deposits (third party funds) in the commercial banks and rural banks to the shocks occurring to inflation, money supply, and USD/IDR exchange rate. So far previous study has mainly focused on only Islamic banks. The data collected were monthly data extending from January 2015 until December 2023. All the data were available on Bank Indonesia and OJK’s websites. The research method used was impulse response function (IRF) that was preceded by vector error correction model (VECM). Upon first examination, it was found out that the data were not stationary. Therefore, they need to be first-differenced for further testing. There was cointegration in the data and therefore we could conclude that banks deposit has a long-term relationship with inflation, money supply, and exchange rate. Impulse response function showed that deposits in the banking system will decrease whenever there is a shock on inflation. This shows how people in the rural and urban areas will hold more cash in the midst of high uncertainty in the economy. Moreover, when there are shocks happening to money supply and exchange rate, the deposits in the rural and commercial banks are very likely to decline. Again, this corroborates the evidence for the tendency of the population to hold more cash in hands to be prepared in times of high uncertainty in money supply and exchange rate.

MENINGKATKAN SKILL LEAD AND INFLUENCE TO GREATNESS DI ERA PERUBAHAN KONSUMEN Briliana, Vita; Prasastyo, Klemens Wedanaji; Suryawan, Ian Nurpatria; Gulo, Yupiter; Rudyanto, Astrid; Ponziani, Regi Muzio; Tjahyanti, Setia; Indriyanti, Irma Satya
E-Amal: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 4 No 2: Mei-Agustus 2024
Publisher : LP2M STP Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47492/eamal.v4i2.3336

Memimpin melalui pengaruh yang besar. Menjadi seorang pemimpin, Leader harus memiliki kemampuan untuk membangun hubungan yang kuat yang didasarkan pada kepercayaan (trust) dan rasa hormat (respect), serta untuk menyampaikan ide-ide inovatif kepada tim dengan kemampuan ini. Seorang pemimpin yang efektif tidak hanya memberi perintah dengan mudah. Seorang Leader harus selalu kreatif, responsif, dan berpikir terbuka. Tujuan lain dari kegiatan ini adalah untuk mendorong kerjasama dan kemitraan antara pimpinan Hotel Anara dan Trisakti School of Management, sehingga dosen dapat mengembangkan kompetensi sosial. Kesimpulan peran kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat sebagai wadah realisasi para dosen agar berbagi pengetahuan dengan masyarakat, dengan fokus pada peran leadership dalam berkomunikasi dengan timnya serta merespon perubahan teknologi, terutama bagi peserta dari Hotel Anara, Tangerang

THE RESPONSE OF DEPOSITS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM TO SHOCKS IN THE MACROECONOMY Theola, Veliana; Ponziani, Regi Muzio
Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA) 7th National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Pelita Harapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

This study aims at determining the response of deposits (third party funds) in the commercial banks and rural banks to the shocks occurring to inflation, money supply, and USD/IDR exchange rate. So far previous study has mainly focused on only Islamic banks. The data collected were monthly data extending from January 2015 until December 2023. All the data were available on Bank Indonesia and OJK’s websites. The research method used was impulse response function (IRF) that was preceded by vector error correction model (VECM). Upon first examination, it was found out that the data were not stationary. Therefore, they need to be first-differenced for further testing. There was cointegration in the data and therefore we could conclude that banks deposit has a long-term relationship with inflation, money supply, and exchange rate. Impulse response function showed that deposits in the banking system will decrease whenever there is a shock on inflation. This shows how people in the rural and urban areas will hold more cash in the midst of high uncertainty in the economy. Moreover, when there are shocks happening to money supply and exchange rate, the deposits in the rural and commercial banks are very likely to decline. Again, this corroborates the evidence for the tendency of the population to hold more cash in hands to be prepared in times of high uncertainty in money supply and exchange rate.

The ABCs of Entering Indonesian Market: An International Community Service Program for Thailand’s SMEs Ponziani, Regi Muzio; Danibrata, Aulia; Deitiana, Tita; Susanto, Yulius Kurnia; Firnanti, Friska; Purbasari, Niken; Prasetio, Arton Briyan
International Journal of Community Service & Engagement Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): International Journal of Community Service & Engagemen
Publisher : Training & Research Institute - Jeramba Ilmu Sukses

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47747/ijcse.v6i2.2767

This community service initiative, conducted on October 17, 2024, at Thailand’s East Park Incubator, aimed to equip Thai SMEs (Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises) with strategies to enter the Indonesian market by addressing digitalization, cultural alignment, and regulatory compliance. Engaging 30 Thai SMEs, the program emphasized leveraging Indonesia’s digital ecosystem including platforms like Tokopedia, Shopee, Instagram, and TikTok to reach its young and huge population of over 212 million internet users, while highlighting demographic advantages such as a young workforce, halal product demand, and strategic geographic positioning. Key discussions covered cultural nuances like relationship-building practices, collective decision-making, and business etiquette to foster trust, alongside regulatory frameworks such as PT PMA requirements and tax policies. Participants demonstrated strong interest in Indonesia’s market potential, with plans or strategies to adopt localized digital marketing, partner with Indonesian businesses, and utilize e-commerce logistics. The initiative underscores the importance of academic-industry collaboration in facilitating cross-border SMEs expansion, fostering economic growth, and enhancing Thailand-Indonesia knowledge exchange through tailored market entry strategies.

Motivating and Examining The Students of SMK Triratna for The Final Exams: A Community Service Activities Suryawan, Ian Nurpatria; Ponziani, Regi Muzio; Prajitno, Sugiarto; Debora; Zubaidi, Umar Issa; Lasar, Hilary Flora Agustina Tulli
International Journal of Science and Environment (IJSE) Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): August 2025
Publisher : CV. Inara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51601/ijse.v5i3.182

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of motivation training on students' academic performance and psychological readiness at SMK Triratna. The training focused on enhancing both intrinsic and extrinsic motivation to improve students' learning enthusiasm, confidence, and stress management during examinations. Using a quasi-experimental design, data were collected from a sample of students before and after the training through questionnaires and academic assessments. The results indicate a significant increase in students' motivation levels, academic achievement, and mental resilience. The findings suggest that motivation training is a valuable intervention to boost students' academic success and emotional preparedness. It is recommended that such programs be implemented regularly and supported by the school community to sustain positive outcomes.

The Importance of Choosing the Right Majors in The University and The Respective Career Prospects Ponziani, Regi Muzio; Yuwono, Arleen Herawaty; Gulo, Yupiter; Jonathan, Aries; Syahrian, Syahrian; Gunawan, Hery; Wardy, Andes
International Journal of Community Service & Engagement Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): International Journal of Community Service & Engagemen
Publisher : Training & Research Institute - Jeramba Ilmu Sukses

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47747/ijcse.v6i3.2984

High school and vocational school students will continue their education to the university level. At the university level, there are various majors available. The chosen major will most likely determine the career prospects that these students will pursue. Recognizing the importance of this, SMA Muhammadiyah 25 Pamulang and Trisakti School of Management held a seminar on the importance of choosing a major for students in the social humanities track. Two majors were introduced, namely Accounting and Management. The community service activity began with an introduction to the majors and career prospects in Accounting and Management, and ended with a Q&A session. The speakers also asked several questions and made observations to test the students’ understanding of the material presented. In general, the community service activity ran very well.

Pelatihan Kepemimpinan di Lingkungan Organisasi OSIS SMK Tarakanita Ponziani, Regi Muzio; Putri, Ade Hanifa; Nellyana; Hidayat, Muwafick; Suparmun, Haryo; Soegijanto, Cleophila M.G.T.
Jurnal Abdimas Sosial, Ekonomi, dan Teknologi Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Abdimas Sosial, Ekonomi, dan Teknologi
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Trisakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34208/5zqav868

The community service program aims to explain and train the candidates of OSIS members including the chairs, the concept of leadership and GRIT. The program was implemented on January 20, 2025 at SMK Tarakanita Jakarta. The speakers and trainers involved two lecturers from STIE Trisakti (Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Trisakti) and two senior students. The participants were 37 students intended to be the members of OSIS. The program was divided into lecturing and interactive sessions. The lecturing session was presented by the lecturers explaining the concept of leadership, GRIT, and the qualities of good leaders. During the lecturing session, the speakers also convey some questions to the students to confirm the comprehension of the participants. Subsequent to the lecturing session, two senior university students held the interactive sessions. In this session, the speakers shortly talked about personality and personality test such as MBTI. Participants were again asked some questions and answers some quizzes. The students were then given prizes for the best answers. Future community service program could further the leadership issues by conducting role play methodology.

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