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All Journal VALENSI Media Statistika Statistika CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Kubik International Conference on Coastal and Delta Areas Jurnal Fourier Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Buletin Sumber Daya Geologi JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Kumawula: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Pattimura Proceeding : Conference of Science and Technology Jurnal Matematika Integratif Matematika STATISTIKA Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Budi Nurani Ruchjana
Departemen Matematika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Padjadjaran
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Penerapan Model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) dalam Peramalan Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Bandung Barat valda azka nadhira; Budi Nurani Ruchjana; Kankan Parmikanti
KUBIK Vol 10 No 1 (2025): KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

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Abstract

The expansion of the Kabupaten Bandung, namely Kabupaten Bandung Barat (KBB) is located in hilly and lowland areas. Rainfall in Kabupaten Bandung Barat has an impact on the productivity and performance of key sectors, such as agriculture, plantations and tourism. Low rainfall can lead prolonged dry seasons and result in drought. Conversely, extreme rainfall can also have negative impacts, such as causing soil erosion and potentially affecting the appeal and smooth operation of tourist destinations. Therefore, rainfall forecasting is needed in making appropriate policies, especially regarding the impacts of rainfall changes in KBB. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method is applied in this study to forecast rainfall in KBB. The aims of this research are to estimate the parameters of the SARIMA model using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to apply the SARIMA method in forecasting rainfall in KBB, particularly during the December-January-February (DJF) period. The results of the analysis show that the SARIMA model can be applied to forecast rainfall in KBB. The best SARIMA model obtained ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,0,1)3 with a MAPE value 17,80%, which indicates an accurate forecasting criterion. Keywords: SARIMA, MLE, Rainfall.
FORECASTING OIL PRODUCTION USING SSA AND TREND REGRESSION IN THE WORLD’S TOP THREE OIL PRODUCERS Ega Saherti; Salwa Azzah Imtiyaz; Gumgum Darmawan; Budi Nurani Ruchjana
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 4 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss4pp3575-3588

Abstract

The world's primary energy source, which plays a significant role in various global sectors, is petroleum. Due to geological influences, energy policies, and geopolitical factors, oil production patterns are often fluctuating and non-stationary. This also applies to the world's of top three oil-producing countries, that is, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq. This situation poses a challenge in developing accurate forecasting models to support global energy planning. This study aims to forecast oil production trends in the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method combined with Trend Regression to obtain a forecasting model capable of capturing long-term patterns and mitigating the influence of short-term fluctuations. Annual oil production data for the period 1936–2024 were taken from Our World in Data. The analysis stages include data decomposition using SSA to separate trends, noise, and cycles, followed by trend component modeling using trend regression. Model evaluation was carried out using the coefficient of determination (R²). The results of the study indicate that the SSA and Trend Regression methods are able to produce stable and accurate projections, with the highest R² value in Saudi Arabia (0.98), followed by Iraq (0.75), and the United States (0.48). All three countries show an increasing production trend until 2034 with different patterns. The SSA and Trend Regression methods are effective in capturing the complex and non-stationary dynamics of oil production. This study provides both academic and practical contributions in the application of the SSA–Trend Regression hybrid method for global oil production forecasting as well as practical contributions for policymakers in projecting global oil production trends.
Co-Authors Ahdian, Muhammad Rhafi Ahmad Fawaid Ridwan Akmaliah, Syifani Al Fataa W Haq Al Madani, Aulia R. Al Madani, Aulia Rahman Alawiyah, Mutik Almeira Tsanawafa Anggraeni A Ani Pertiwi Annisa Alma Yunia Annisa Nur Falah, Annisa Nur Annisafiya, Nadira Arisya Maulina Bowo Asep Kurnia Permadi Asri Yuniar Asrirawan Atika Tresna Arianto Atje Setiawan Abdullah Audina, Yurid Auliyazhafira, Shabira A. Ayu Indriani Ayun Sri Rahmani Bambang Suhandi Bambang Suhandi Bowo, Arisya Maulina Chotimah, Husnul Dedi Rosadi Delvi Rutania Prama Desiyanti, Armalia Devi Munandar, Devi Devi Yanti, Devi Diah Chaerani Dian Islamiaty Puteri Dianne Amor Kusuma Dicky Muslim Dwi Susanti Dwipriyoko, Estiyan Eddy Hermawan Ega Saherti Emah Suryamah Emah Suryamah, Emah Endang Rusyaman Endang Soeryana Hasbullah Fadhilah, Dila Nur Fajriatus Sholihah Falah, Annisa N. Gumgum Darmawan Hamim Tsalis Soblia Hardianto A Hendarmawan Hendarmawan Hera Khoirunnisa Husein Hernadi Bahti I Gede Nyoman Mindra I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya Ibrahim, Riza Andrian Iin Irianingsih Kaerudin, Nandira Putri Kankan Parmikanti Kankan Parmikanti Kartika Sari Khafsah Joebaedi Khoirunnisa Rohadatul Aisy Muslihin Lucy Fitria Dewi Mahrudinda Mahrudinda Maryanto Rompon Mindra, I Gede Nyoman Monika, Putri Muhamad Sobari Muhammad Herlambang Prakasa Yudha Muthalib A nadhira, valda azka Najwa, Sandrina Nauli, Theresia S. Novi - Saputri NUR HAMID Nur Hamid Nurdeni, Nurdeni Nurul Gusriani Permana, Pandu Permatasari, Noverlina Putri Pratiwi, Dhanti Aurilia Pratomo, Firdaus Ryan Puteri, Dian Islamiaty Putri Monika Putri Monika Putri Zahra Helena Putri, Fariza A. Putri, Salsabila Eka Resa Septiani Pontoh Rizka Pradita Prasetya Rizki Apriva Hidayana Salsabil, Tsuroyya Salsabila Salsabila Salwa Azzah Imtiyaz Setialaksana, Wirawan - Shailla Rustiana Sobari, Muhamad Soetikno, Christophorus Sri Adi Widodo Sri Indra Maiyanti Suhandi, Bambang Sutawanir Darwis Tarigan, Wenny Srimeinda Tegar Bratasena WKM Tilas Notapiri Toni Toharudin Tsanawafa, Almeira Tsuroyya Salsabil Tubagus Robbi Megantara valda azka nadhira Viona Prisyella Balqis Vivian Wilhelmina Vivian Wilhelmina WKM, Tegar Bratasena Yunia, Annisa Alma Zahra, Nabila Zulfa Hidayah Satria Putri