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Journal : Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

Prediction of Solar Radiation Intensity using Extreme Learning Machine Hadi Suyono; Hari Santoso; Rini Nur Hasanah; Unggul Wibawa; Ismail Musirin
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 12, No 2: November 2018
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v12.i2.pp691-698

Abstract

The generated energy capacity at a solar power plant depends on the availability of solar radiation. In some regions, solar radiation is not always available throughout the day, or even week, depending on the weather and climate in the area. To be able to produce energy optimally throughout the year, the availability of solar radiation needs to be predicted based on the weather and climate behavior data. Many methods have been so far used to predict the availability of solar radiation, either by mathematical approach, statistical probability, or even artificial intelligence-based methods. This paper describes a method of predicting the availability of solar radiation using the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) method. It is based on the artificial intelligence methods and known to have a good prediction accuracy. To measure the performance of the ELM method, a conventional forecasting method using the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) method has been used as a comparison. The implementation of both the ELM and MLR methods has been tested using the solar radiation data of the Basel City, Switzerland, which are available to public. Five years of data have been divided into training data and testing data for 6 case-studies considered. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) have been used as the parameters to measure the prediction results based on the actual data analysis. The results show that the obtained average values of RMSE and MAE by using the ELM method respectively are 122.45 W/m2 and 84.04 W/m2, while using the MLR method they are 141.18 W/m2 and 104.87 W/m2 respectively. It means that the ELM method proved to perform better than the MLR method, giving 15.29% better value of RMSE parameter and 24.79% better value of MAE parameter.
Co-Authors Adhi Purbo Putranto Adinata, Dwi Andhika Valent Afwega Bagas Kena Pranata Ahmad Zaki Ramadhani Akbar, Muhammad Yoga Rochmanu Akiyat, Muhammad Haekal Aldian Eka Fitranto Aldo Julian Hastono Alfarizy, Muhammad Mahdiy Alfian Sakti Pamungkas Ali Ridho Alief Nasruddin Ananda, Redzko Andre Prasetya Andy Darmawan Angela Sembiring Anshar Affandy Arbi Ramadhan Arief Y., Primanda Ariella, Syafika Safa Arifin Surya Winarto Arizqun Anwar Fatcha Armeyelia, Bulan Asmungi, Gaguk Asyhari, Ahmad Rizky Ayyub Setiyoso Bobby Pratama Bryan Malvin Budi Agung Raharjo Darryl Octaviyanto Kusputra Dhofir, Mochammad Dhofir, Mochammad Ditto Adi Permana Ditza Pasca Irwangsa E. Wakama, Tamunonengi Eka Citra Agustini Eka Mardiana Engga Kusumayoga Fakhruddin Ar Rozi Faza Azmi Hidayat Firly Azka Nurhidayah Frandicahya P., Akhmad Gita Andrika Sari Gitawan Dimas Prakoso Hadi Suyono Hafidh, Muhammad Yusril Haidar, Achmad Hari Santoso Harry Soekotjo Dachlan Hery Purnomo Hidayat, n/a Imam Suwandi Imtiyaz, Kholis Irvan, Muh. Zulvi Ismail Abdan Syakuro Firmansyah Ismail Musirin Jawoto Tri Prabowo Jayadiyuda, I Wayan Angga Kemal Pasha Pramudianto Khairil Anwar Khalid, Farhan Firzatullah Khatijah Sofia Surya Putri Suharyanto Kosa Shantia Kurniawan, Ferryo Lenz Lavelia Permata C. Lukmanul Hakim Lunde Ardhenta Maharani, Bella Fathia Mahfudz Shidiq Malamansyah, Triamelia Salsabila Mardotillah, Nanda Azizah Maulidina, Nabila Vida Miranda Christine Moch Dhofir Moch. Dhofir Moch. Dhofir Mochamad Azwar Anas Mochamad Shofwan Rizqulloh Mochammad Abdul Ghofur Mohammad Fahririjal Mokhammad Wildan Dahlan Muhammad Alaudin Tri Kurnia Muhammad Daniyal Muhammad Haekal Akiyat Muhammad Rigadho Suprayogi n/a Hariyono n/a Soeprapto n/a Wijono n/a Wijono Nainggolan, William Sutan Nisa, Rizqa Ulya Fakhrun Nur Rahma Dona Nur Subhan Nurhakiki, Mauludiya Annisa Pradana Anoraga Tinto Pradhana, Raka Radithya Pratama, Muhammad Pashya Rifky Putra, Ade Mahendra Darma Rachendra, Bima Denatta Ramadhan, Muhammad Indrata Ramadhani, Ahmad Zaki Rendy Previanto Retno Puji Lestari Reza Sufi Al Kamil Reza, Dana Ammar Rifdillah Zulafa Rini Nur Hasanah Rizki, Fahrina Novia Rizky Hamid Robbyansyah Rizqi Wahyu Rahmariadi Rohman, Deny Fatkhur Rosi David Rosihan Arby Harahap Rosihan Arby Harahap Ruditta Devianti Rusli, Mochammad Satrio Wicaksono Shiddiq, Muhammad Fatihul Shufinah, Syahla Siregar, Josua Hatorangan Suyono, Hadi Syarif, Habib Teguh Utomo Titis Aridanti Pratiwi Tri Nurwati Triyoga, Joseph Kristian Ullin Dwi Fajri A. Utomo, Muhamad Afiq Nur Warda Islamiyah Wijono, n/a Wiwin Wahyuni Yudhistira Rizal Firmansyah Yulistiono, Irwan Zainuri, Akhmad Zulfikar Subagio