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PERAMALAN PENJUALAN BERAS DI PERUM BULOG SUB DIVRE MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Sariaman Manullang; Abil Mansyur
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): April : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i1.618

Abstract

Perum Bulog as a State-Owned Enterprise has the main task, which is to conduct a quality and adequate basic food logistics business for the survival of the people. The problem that occurred in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan is that the rice supply in Bulog does not consider the demand in the market. Forecasting is an important tool in effective and efficient planning. Therefore, prediction is indispensable for predicting future events. This method essentially uses past data initiated by performing an exponentially decreasing weighting of older observational values or newer values. Brown's double exponential smoothing is a linear model proposed by Brown. This double exponential smoothing method is used when the data indicate a trend. In this study, the terbaik best parameter for forecasting the Number of Rice Sales in Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan was α = 0.2 with MAPE of 0.27%. And the results of the forecast for Rice Sales at Perum Bulog Sub Divre Medan in 2022 are decreasing every month.
ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN PADA PT. BANK SUSMUT KANTOR PUSAT MEDAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ANTRIAN MULTI CHANNEL SINGLE PHASE Okta Via Herawati Siahaan; Abil Mansyur
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Oktober : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i2.1495

Abstract

Antrian adalah fenomena atau kejadian yang sering dijumpai dalam kehidupan sehari-hari. Antrian yang sangat panjang dapat merugikan pihak yang membutuhkan pelayanan jika tidak dilayani dengan cepat, karena banyaknya waktu yang digunakan terbuang selama menunggu giliran pelayanan. PT. Bank Sumut Kantor Pusat Medan merupakan salah satu bank daerah yang sumber dananya berasal dari simpanan masyarakat. Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui model sistem antrian serta menemukan alternatif untuk mengoptimalkan sistem pelayanan pada PT. Bank Sumut Kantor Pusat Medan. Sistem antrian teller yang diterapkan oleh bank ini adalah sistem antrian yang terdapat lebih dari satu jenis layanan yang diberikan, tetapi dalam setiap jenis layanan hanya terdapat satu pemberi layanan dengan memberi nomor antrian atau yang sering disebut Multi Channel Single Phase. Disiplin antrian yang digunakan pada bank ini yaitu first come first served (FCFS). Berdasarkan hasil pembahasan, model antrian yang diperoleh adalah yang berarti bahwa tingkat kedatangan nasabah berdistribusi Poisson, waktu pelayanan nasabah berdistribusi Eksponensial, jumlah server sebanyak empat, disiplin antrian adalah First Come First Serve (FCFS), jumlah nasabah yang masuk dalam sistem tidak terhingga dan ukuran populasi masuk tidak terhingga. Dengan dilakukannya evaluasi terhadap kinerja teller dapat membantu mengoptimalkan antrian yang terjadi pada PT. Bank Sumut Kantor Pusat Medan. Selain itu, Bank juga dapat menerapkan standar waktu pelayanan dan standar waktu tunggu nasabah.
Pengoptimalan Jaringan Pipa Primer PDAM Tirtanadi Cabang Tuasan Dengan Menggunakan Algoritma Kruskal Yosua Mangapul Situmorang; Abil Mansyur
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Oktober : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i2.1613

Abstract

Kruskal's algorithm in searching for minimum spanning trees can be applied to pipelines installed at the location of PDAM Tirtanadi Tuasan where problem identification starts with the water discharge reaching the consumer is small but the discharge flowing from the reservoir is sufficient, so this research is used as a solution to this problem and also as an optimization of the clean water distribution network in the Tirtanadi Regional Drinking Water Company (PDAM) of the Tuasan Branch with the intention of cutting the direction of the pipe flow to overcome this problem. The data obtained from PDAM Tirtanadi Tuasan Branch is in the form of a floor plan and formed into a weighted graph. After the data is obtained, then it is calculated manually that the length of the installed water pipe is 32,645 m with 86 vertices and 100 edges, then the pipe length is represented as a set of paths and the pipe connection ends are represented as nodes. The pipe length obtained using Kruskal's algorithm and inspection of iterations using the QM for windows software is 22,095 m, with 86 vertices and 85 edges. So, using the Kruskal Algorithm and the help of the QM for windows software, the difference in pipe length obtained is 10,610 m.
Optimalisasi Pengelolaan Lahan Parkir Menggunakan Program Integer Metode Branch And Bound Di Mall Plaza Medan Fair Mestria Cicilia Panjaitan; Abil Mansyur
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Oktober : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v2i2.1621

Abstract

The rapid development of vehicles has an impact on increasing the need for parking space, thus demanding the need for availability and land management that provides convenience and comfort for motorists. Plaza Medan Fair mall is still not optimal in planning and managing parking lots, this can be seen from the number of vehicles that do not get parking spaces while parking is still available, besides that the placement of parking cars has not been arranged so that visitors still have difficulty in finding a parking space. This can have an impact on not optimal parking lot income. Parking lot management can be done by classifying parking by categorizing vehicles according to their group considering that each vehicle has a different size and can be grouped according to type. Optimization of parking management can be done using the branch and bound method integer program. The branch and bound method is a method to find the optimal solution to the integer problem with the concept of branching and bounding. The results of the study found that there were 200 parking spaces for small cars, 651 parking spaces, 651 parking spaces, 226 large cars and 70 parking spaces. The maximum parking income obtained by Plaza Medan Fair mall is Rp10,023,000.-.
Innovation in The Development of an Electronic Practicum Book of IT-Based Learning Media Oriented to The Team-Based Project Siregar, Budi Halomoan; Kairuddin; Mansyur, Abil; Yusoff, Nazhatul Sahima Mohd
Mosharafa: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 12 No. 2 (2023): April
Publisher : Department of Mathematics Education Program IPI Garut

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31980/mosharafa.v12i2.780

Abstract

Belum terdapat buku praktikum yang memenuhi standar kualitas tinggi (valid, praktis dan efektif) yang dapat digunakan sebagai panduan belajar untuk mengembangkan media IT. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan satu buku praktikum media IT yang terintegrasi dengan prinsip-prinsip pembelajaran Team-Based Project yang memenuhi standar. Untuk menghasilkan produk yang diinginkan, maka dilakukan penelitian R&D dengan model 4D yang terdiri dari empat fase: pendefinisian, desain, pengembangan dan penyebarluasan. Subjek penelitian ini adalah mahasiswa calon guru pada matakuliah media pembelajaran berbasis IT yang terdiri dari 63 orang (kelas A dan B). Untuk memperoleh data yang diperlukan, maka digunakan beberapa instrumen: lembar observasi, lembar validasi, lembar kepraktisan, dan lembar keefektifan berupa essay test dan lembar respon mahasiswa, kemudian data dianalisis secara kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, buku tersebut memenuhi 3 standar kualitas yang ditentukan, dan terbukti adanya peningkatan kemampuan mahasiswa dalam menghasilkan produk media IT yang relevan dengan kebutuhan siswa sebagai yang termasuk pada warga digital. There are no practicum books that are valid, practical, and of good quality that can be utilized as study aids for creating IT media. This study aims to create an IT media practicum book that is integrated with team-based project principles that meet quality standards. R&D research is conducted using a 4D model, which consists of four processes, to produce the desired product: (1) define, (2) design, (3) develop and (4) disseminate. The subjects of this research are students who are prospective mathematics teachers and are taking IT-based learning media courses consisting of 63 people (classes A and B). The research data was obtained through several instruments: (1) observation sheets, (2) validation sheets, (3) practicality sheets, and (4) effectiveness sheets in the form of essay tests and student response sheets, then the data were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Based on the research findings, the book has met the three specified quality standards, and it is proven that there is an increase in students' ability to understand development concepts and create IT media that are relevant to the needs of native digital learners.
Optimization of Coca-Cola Product Distribution Routes at PT. Graha Prima Mentari Medan With Ant Colony Optimization Tarigan, Pridolin Olin; Mansyur, Abil
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 5, No 1 (2021): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v5i1.11110

Abstract

PT Graha Prima Mentari is a company engaged in the service sector, namely as the official distributor of Coca-Cola. PT. Graha Prima Mentari has Distribution Centers spread across various cities including those located in the cities of Cirebon, Indramayu, Tasikmalaya, Pekanbaru, Medan, Denpasar, Rembang and others. For branches in the city of Medan PT. Graha Prima Mentari is located at Jalan Gatot Subroto KM 6.7 No. 100 Fields. PT. Graha Prima Mentari has 13 transportation cars that operate from Monday to Saturday and serve 6 areas, namely Medan Barat, Medan Sunggal, Medan Helvetia, Medan Selayang, Medan Tuntungan and Medan Petisah.The problem that occurs is that the company has not determined the optimal route which results in additional costs for the distribution of goods. This study aims to minimize the distance by using the ant colony optimization method. The result obtained is that the distribution distance is reduced by 52 km from the previous distance of 93.1 km to 41.1 km and saves distribution costs of Rp.49,000.
Employee Performance Assessment System of PT. Graha Prima Mentari Medan by Using Simple Additive Weighting Cristian, Niel; Mansyur, Abil
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 5, No 1 (2021): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v5i1.11125

Abstract

Employee performance appraisal system is a system used to assess the best performance of employees. PT Graha Prima Medan performs the best performance assessment of employees to evaluate, verify and improve their performance. The results of this performance become a decision-making tool such as promotion, dismissal, transfer, intensive giving or providing feedback for employees. However, the large number of employees who will be selected becomes an obstacle in assessing employee performance, because it is expected that an automation process uses technology to evaluate the performance of these employees. The purpose of this study is to design an employee performance appraisal system at PT Graha Prima Mentari Medan. The method used is the SAW method, the basic concept of the SAW method is to find the weighted sum of the performance ratings for each alternative on all attributes. The SAW method can help decision making to form the largest value as the best alternative. The assessment in the research that has been carried out uses 5 criteria including: Attendance, Attitude, Time Discipline, Working Period and Quantity using the SAW method. In this study, testing was carried out on 36 respondent data. The employee performance appraisal system was developed using the PHP (Pre-Hypertext Processor) programming language, and the MySQL database as the database server.
Percentile Bootstrap Interval on Univariate Local Polynomial Regression Prediction Mansyur, Abil; Simamora, Elmanani; Ahmad, Ahmad
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 7, No 1 (2023): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v7i1.11752

Abstract

This study offers a new technique for constructing percentile bootstrap intervals to predict the regression of univariate local polynomials. Bootstrap regression uses resampling derived from paired and residual bootstrap methods. The main objective of this study is to perform a comparative analysis between the two resampling methods by considering the nominal coverage probability. Resampling uses a nonparametric bootstrap technique with the return method, where each sample point has an equal chance of being selected. The principle of nonparametric bootstrapping uses the original sample data as a source of diversity in contrast to parametric bootstrapping, where the variety comes from generating a particular distribution. The simulation results show that the paired and residual bootstrap interval coverage probabilities are close to nominal coverage. The results showed no significant difference between paired bootstrap interval and percentile residual. Increasing the bootstrap sample size sufficiently large gives the scatterplot smoothness of the confidence interval. Applying the smoothing parameter by choice gives a second-order polynomial regression with a smoother distribution than the first-order polynomial regression. The scatterplot shows that the second-degree polynomial regression can capture the data curvature feature compared to the first-degree polynomial. The bands made from second-degree polynomials give a narrower width than first-degree polynomials. In contrast, applying optimal smoothing parameters to the model provides different conclusions by using smoothing parameters based on choice. In addition to the differences based on the scatterplot, the bootstrap estimates of the coverage probability are also other. Selecting smoothing parameters based on a particular value provides probability coverage with the paired bootstrap method for the first-degree local polynomial regression is 0.93, while the second-degree local polynomial is 0.96. The probability of coverage based on the residual bootstrap method for the first-degree local polynomial regression is 0.95, while the second-degree local polynomial is 0.96. The probability coverage based on the optimal parameters of the paired bootstrap method for the first-degree local polynomial regression is 0.945, while the second-degree local polynomial is 0.93. The residual bootstrap method gives the first-degree local polynomial regression of 0.95, while the second-degree local polynomial is 0.93. In general, both bootstrap methods work well for estimating prediction confidence intervals.
Peningkatan Higienitas Proses Produksi Kelompok Usaha Roti Di Desa Sidomulyo Kecamatan Binjai Kabupaten Langkat Gultom, Syamsul; Endriani, Dewi; Mansyur, Abil; Ritonga, Winsyahputra; Harahap, Mukti Hamjah; Panggabean, Deo Demonta; Syah, Dedy Husrizal
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Radisi Vol 4 No 1 (2024): April
Publisher : Yayasan Kajian Riset dan Pengembangan RADISI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55266/pkmradisi.v4i1.415

Abstract

Program Kemitraan Masyarakat ini dilaksanakan pada usaha bakery, Novri Bakrie dan Dapoer Bunda B&B, yang berlokasi di Desa Sidomulyo, Kecamatan Binjai, Kabupaten Langkat, sekitar 35 km dari Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Universitas Negeri Medan, dengan jarak tempuh sekitar satu jam perjalanan menggunakan mobil. Para mitra menghadapi beberapa tantangan, yaitu: 1) Produk yang dihasilkan belum mampu memenuhi kebutuhan penjualan karena keterbatasan kapasitas peralatan yang dimiliki, 2) Peralatan produksi yang sudah usang, sederhana, dan tidak higienis, 3) Minimnya modal usaha yang menyebabkan mitra tidak mampu mengganti peralatan yang ada saat ini, 4) Manajemen usaha yang masih sederhana dan catatan pembukuan yang kurang memadai, serta 5) Pembukuan yang masih dilakukan secara manual. Metode pendekatan yang digunakan dalam program pengabdian ini meliputi pelatihan, pendampingan, dan demonstrasi penggunaan alat. Hasil dari kegiatan ini adalah penyerahan alat Teknologi Tepat Guna (TTG) berupa oven roti, disertai praktik penggunaannya, serta pelatihan dan pendampingan dalam manajemen usaha dan pembukuan yang lebih terstruktur, rapi, dan praktis.
IMPLEMENTASI PENDEKATAN DEEP LEARNING UNTUK PENGUATAN LITERASI NUMERASI GURU SMP DI KABUPATEN LABUHANBATU UTARA Mansyur, Abil; Sinaga, Fajar Apollo; Simamora, Elmanani; Siregar, Budi Halomoloan; Siregar, Tiur Malasari; Panggabean, Suvriadi
JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Vol. 31 No. 4 (2025): Oktober-Desember
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/jpkm.v31i4.70295

Abstract

Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk merevitalisasi pembelajaran melalui pendekatan Deep Learning yang berorientasi pada peningkatan literasi numerasi guru-guru SMP di Kabupaten Labuhanbatu Utara. Program melibatkan empat mitra: SMP Negeri 1 Kualuh Selatan, SMP Negeri 3 Kualuh Selatan, SMP Negeri 4 Kualuh Hulu, dan Pesantren Arkanuddin. Metode pelaksanaan disesuaikan dengan kondisi masing-masing mitra: model best practice untuk tiga SMP Negeri dengan dua tahap (BP I: dosen sebagai role model, BP II: guru sebagai pelaksana), dan model pelatihan intensif dengan peer teaching untuk Pesantren Arkanuddin. Kegiatan dilaksanakan pada Mei 2025 melalui tahapan persiapan, pelaksanaan, evaluasi, pembinaan, dan monitoring berkelanjutan. Hasil menunjukkan peningkatan signifikan kompetensi guru dalam mengembangkan perangkat pembelajaran berbasis Deep Learning yang mengintegrasikan prinsip mindful, meaningful, dan joyful learning. Sebanyak 33 guru berhasil mengembangkan perangkat pembelajaran berkualitas yang mencakup RPP, LKPD, media pembelajaran, dan instrumen evaluasi. Pembelajaran di kelas menunjukkan peningkatan keterlibatan aktif siswa, kemampuan berpikir kritis, dan literasi numerasi. Hasil monitoring menunjukkan bahwa konsistensi implementasi Deep Learning bervariasi antar guru. Sekitar 70% guru menunjukkan konsistensi tinggi dalam menerapkan prinsip-prinsip Deep Learning, 25% menunjukkan konsistensi sedang yang perlu penguatan, dan 5% masih memerlukan pembinaan intensif. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi konsistensi meliputi: pemahaman konseptual guru, dukungan kepala sekolah, ketersediaan sarana-prasarana, dan beban kerja guru.