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Ghazali, Muhammad
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Journal : JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

 1 
Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Kasus Tuberculosis di Kabupaten Lombok Timur menggunakan Model Spatial Autoregressive Poisson Adini, Ertina Septia; Azizah, Efida; Hastuti, Siti Hariati; Ghazali, Muhammad
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 6, No 1 (2025): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v6i1.30913

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a deadly infectious disease caused by the bacteria Mycobacterium tuberculosis. According to the NTB Provincial Health Office, the number of TB cases in NTB Province was reported as many as 7,305 cases in 2019. East Lombok Regency in that year recorded 1,521 TB cases. The high number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency is an interesting reason to use statistical analysis techniques in modeling variables that influence the number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency. This study uses Spatial Autoregressive Poisson (SAR Poisson) analysis. This method is a development of the classical regression method by considering spatial dependence on the dependent variable, namely count data that follows the Poisson distribution. According to the results of the study, there is significant spatial dependence on the data based on the results of the Moran's I test. The results of the SAR Poisson modeling show that only the Population Density variable (X_4) has a significant effect on the number of TB cases in East Lombok Regency with a parameter value of -1.24 x 10^{-21}. The corrected determination coefficient showed quite high results with a value of 71.8\%, which means that the model can explain most of the variability in the data, which is an indication that the model has a good fit and high relevance to the data. The results of the mapping of the comparison of actual data and the estimated value of TB cases from the SAR Poisson model showed similar results. 
Co-Authors Adina, Tengku Adini, Ertina Septia Afifurrahman Afifurrahman Alfiyanto, Afif Anatolive, Dave Andy Triwinarko Anggih Tri Cahyadi Anjani, Meidy Any Setianingrum, Any Arif Roziqin, Arif Assoburu, Selvia Aulia, Shindi Azizah, Efida Bambang Widjanarko Otok Challen, Auliffi Ermian Daya, Andriansyah Pratama Elmanizar, Elmanizar Fitri Hidayati Gultom, Susi Indah Agustina Haiqal, Muhammad Hukama, La Diadhan Hutabarat, Steven Ita Fitriati Karima, Mutia Komala, Lenda Lestari, Juwita Lili Suryani M. Ikhwan Mahdi Maryance, Maryance Mirzan, Muhammad Muhajirin, Muhajirin Muhammad Akhyar Adnan Muhammad Zainuddin Lubis Muhammad Zohri, Muhammad Nugroho, Danang Budi Oktavia, Dinda Oktavianto Gustin Olivia, Niken Parhaini Andriani, Parhaini Perananda, Ade Prabowo, Nico Wantona Pratama, Rizki Widi Radityani, Fitri Afina Ramdani Purnamasari Randi Muhammad Gumilang Rassarandi, Farouki Dinda Riansyah, Pipin Rini Hidayati Rivani, Dian Rofii, Muhammad Rusli, Ari Safitri, Leli Amelia Sahabudin, Ahmad Samosir, Bahara Paulus Razoki Sari, Luthfiya Ratna Siahaan, Feby Angelin Garizi Siboro, Amanda T. Sihaloho, Angela Moriana Sihotang, David Charly Silaban, Robby Darlinto Silahuddin Silahuddin Simamora, Irma Yusriani Siregar, Veronika Stevany Siti Hariati Hastuti Siti Noor Chayati Sitio, Stevani Aneta Nika Sudra Irawan Sukmawati Sukmawati Susanti, Yuanita Suzita, Suzita Syatria Adymas Pranajaya Wafa, Muhammad Husnul Wandanita, Melia Yusuf Latief Zain, Efendi Zain, Effendi Zainal Zawir Simon, Zainal Zawir