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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Sains Dasar PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Pembelajaran Prospektif JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) MATAPPA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JURNAL EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Journal of Education Technology JURNAL SILOGISME : Kajian Ilmu Matematika dan Pembelajarannya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Transformasi : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Saintika Unpam : Jurnal Sains dan Matematika Unpam Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Journal of Science and Technology JES-MAT (Jurnal Edukasi dan Sains Matematika) MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Pedagogy : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika METIKS: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Elektro, Informatika, Kelautan & Sains Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Jurnal Sintak Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Jurnal Matematika Integratif Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Bilangan: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa Algoritma: Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Astronomy Automotive Engineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE CHOLERA DISEASE SPREAD INVOLVING MEDICATION AND ENVIROMENTAL SANITATION Resmawan, R; Yahya, Lailany; Mahmud, Sri Lestari; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Laita, Nazrilla Hasan
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 1 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (656.125 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss1pp0341-0360

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the mathematical model of the cholera disease spread involving medicationnd environmental sanitation. The model was analyzed by determining the equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number. The next step was to analyze the equilibrium point, sensitivity, and simulate numerically. Analysis of the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points usedhe Routh-Hurwitz criteria and the Castillo-Chaves and Song Theorem. The Analysis resultf the model produced two equilibrium points; namely the disease-freequilibrium point for local asymptotic stability and the endemic equilibrium point for local asymptotic stability if . Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis indicated the most sensitive parameters for basic reproductive number changes in succession are the parameters for natural birth rates , the transmission rate of bacteria from the environment to humans , the saturated concentration of bacteria in water , an increase in the bacterial population caused by environmental pollution rate by humans . Numerical simulations suggest an increase to give vaccine can contribute to slowing the transmission of cholera where as the reduction of a vaccine able to promote the transmission of cholera diseases.
Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Demam Berdarah Dengue dengan Faktor Kesadaran Sosial: Analisis dan Simulasi Djuma, Clara Anggriani; Achmad, Novianita; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Hasan, Isran K.; Arsal, Armayani
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Vol 7, No 2: August 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjom.v7i2.33921

Abstract

Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a serious health problem in many tropical regions, including Indonesia. The spread of this disease is influenced by various factors, one of which is the level of social awareness in the prevention and control of infection. This study developed a mathematical model of DHF spread by integrating social awareness as an additional compartment. The model was analysed by determining the equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number (R0), as well as stability analysis using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion. The analysis results show the existence of two types of equilibrium points: the disease-free equilibrium point (T1) and the endemic equilibrium point (T2). Point T1 is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1 and unstable when R0 1, while point T2 is locally asymptotically stable when R0 1. Sensitivity analysis shows that the social awareness parameter significantly influences the value of R0. Additionally, numerical simulations indicate that increasing social awareness can effectively reduce disease spread and drive the system toward a disease-free state. These findings underscore the importance of community-based awareness interventions in dengue control strategies.
Dynamical Analysis of a Predator-Prey Model Involving Intraspecific Competition in Predator and Prey Protection Resmawan, Resmawan; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Nasib, Salmun K.; Nashar, La Ode
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 8, No 3 (2024): July
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v8i3.22154

Abstract

This article explains the interaction of the prey-predator model in the presence of wild harvesting and competition intra-specific predator populations and prey protection zones.  Model construction is based on literature studies related to the basic theory of the model and the biological properties between predator and prey populations. This study aims to look at the dynamic conditions of the predator-prey model in the form of the existence of prey and predator populations and the impact that occurs in the long term for both populations due to changes in parameter values. The model analysis begins with the formulation of the solution conditions and boundaries model, and next with the determination of the equilibrium point. Every equilibrium point is analyzed by the characteristic of its stability is neither local or global. The model owns three equilibrium points, namely the equilibrium point of population extinction (E_0), the equilibrium point of predator extinction (E_1), and the equilibrium point of persistence of the two populations (E_2). These equilibrium points are stable locally or globally if certain conditions are met. Next, it is shown that bifurcation proceeds Which describes the changing of characteristic stability point equilibrium Which depends on the threshold parameter values h_1, Ω^*, and ρ^*. In the end, numerical simulations are presented in the form of phase, time-series, and bifurcation diagrams to support the analytical results of the model, as well as to visually show the dynamic behaviour of the interaction between the two populations based on changes in predation levels, illegal harvesting, prey refuge zones, and intra-specific competition.
Analisis Dinamik Model Penyebaran COVID-19 dengan Vaksinasi Resmawan, Resmawan; Yahya, Lailany; Pakaya, Revandi S.; Panigoro, Hasan S.; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka
Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Volume 3, Issue 1: June 2022
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjbm.v3i1.13176

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new type of virus from a large family of viruses transmitted between humans and animals (zoonotically transmitted) that was first discovered in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China in late 2019 which is still widespread and threat throughout the world including Indonesia. This article discussed about the mathematical model of the spread of COVID-19 with vaccinations. In this case, the human population is divided into 5 classes, namely the suspected, vaccine, exposed, infected and recovered classes. The constructed model forms an SVEIR model that has two equilibrium points, namely disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Stability analysis shows that the equilibrium point is stable local and global asymptotic if R0 1 and unstable if R0 1. Then a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the parameters that greatly affect the model as well as furthermore, numerical simulations are given to describe the behavior of the model that has been obtained based on the analysis of the sensitivity of basic reproductive numbers, obtained several parameters that affect the spread of COVID-19. Numerical simulation results show that vaccination can suppress the addition of infected populations and depend on the level of effectiveness of vaccination.
Penjadwalan karyawan Qmart Super Store menggunakan metode Goal Programming secara Preemptive dan Nonpreemptive Syafrudin, Marisa; Djakaria, Ismail; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Wungguli, Djihad
AKSIOMA : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 14, No 3 (2023): AKSIOMA: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/aks.v14i3.17005

Abstract

Penjadwalan karyawan adalah salah satu masalah organisasi yang rumit dipecahkan. Faktor yang membuat penjadwalan karyawan menjadi rumit adalah karakteristik organisasi, ketidakhadiran, serta kualifikasi dan keahlian karyawan. Karena banyaknya faktor tersebut masalah penjadwalan menjadi sangat luas dan bervariasi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengoptimalkan penjadwalan karyawan. Hasil dari penelitian ini diperoleh dengan menggunakan 2 skenario, skenario satu (Preemptive) dan skenario dua (Nonpreemptive), nilai fungsi tujuan bernilai 0 dengan solusi optimal  dan , artinya semua kendala yang dimodelkan terpenuhi sehingga penjadwalan dengan Preemptive Goal Programming dan Weighted Goal Programming dikatakan lebih optimal dibandingkan penjadwalan secara manual.
The Occurrence of a Neimark-Sacker Bifurcation on a Discrete-Time Predator-Prey Model Involving Fear Effect and Linear Harvesting Kasim, Ranan; Panigoro, Hasan S.; Rahmi, Emli; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Arsal, Armayani
Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics Vol. 1 No. 1: February 2025
Publisher : Gammarise Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64182/indocam.v1i1.5

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey model incorporating the fear effect and linear harvesting. The model assumes that both prey and predator populations are harvested proportionally to their densities, while the growth rate of the prey population is negatively impacted by predator presence due to fear. The analytical exploration identifies three fixed points: the extinction point, the predator-free equilibrium, and the coexistence equilibrium. Stability analysis and numerical simulations confirm the occurrence of a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation at the interior equilibrium, demonstrating the model's complex dynamical behaviors. The findings provide insights into population sustainability under different harvesting and predation conditions, highlighting how fear and harvesting jointly influence ecosystem stability.
A Mathematical Model of the Mud Crab (Scylla Sp.) Involving Cannibalism and Refuge Abubakar, Agung Sucipto; Panigoro, Hasan S.; Djakaria, Ismail; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Hasan, Isran K.; Asriadi, Asriadi
Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics Vol. 1 No. 1: February 2025
Publisher : Gammarise Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64182/indocam.v1i1.12

Abstract

Cannibalism, a common ecological phenomenon in various species, significantly impacts the population dynamics of mud crabs (Scylla sp.). This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the effects of cannibalism and protective refuges on the population sustainability of juvenile and adult mud crabs. The model identifies two equilibrium points: the extinction equilibrium and the coexistence equilibrium. Stability analysis using the Jacobian matrix reveals that the extinction equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable under specific conditions. In contrast, the coexistence equilibrium depends on the transition rate from juvenile to adult crabs and the effectiveness of protective measures. Numerical simulations demonstrate that increasing the transition rate and implementing higher levels of refuge protection mitigate the adverse effects of cannibalism, enhancing population stability. These findings provide a quantitative foundation for sustainable fisheries management and conservation strategies for mud crab populations in mangrove ecosystems.
Prediksi Jumlah Calon Mahasiswa Baru Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series dan ARIMA: Studi Kasus: Program Studi Statistika Aprina Manggarai; Lailany Yahya; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Bilangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 3 No. 5 (2025): Oktober : Bilangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/bilangan.v3i5.829

Abstract

Academic planning is one form of planning the teaching and learning process in state universities, aimed at achieving educational goals based on the standards set. One important aspect of academic planning is forecasting the number of new students. This study compares two forecasting methods, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), in predicting the number of new students in the Statistics Study Program at Universitas Negeri Gorontalo. Forecasting the number of new students is crucial for determining various policies, such as resource allocation and providing adequate facilities. The results of the study show that the ARIMA method produces more accurate predictions with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.35%, which is lower than the FTS method. This indicates that ARIMA is more effective in predicting the number of new students in the Statistics Study Program at Universitas Negeri Gorontalo and can serve as a reference to improve academic planning quality in higher education institutions.
Development of a Hybrid ARIMA–Fourier Series Model for Air Temperature Forecasting at the Gorontalo Climatology Station Suci Tilome; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11462

Abstract

Air temperature is a key climatic variable that reflects environmental conditions and influences various human activities. Recent observations indicate a persistent upward trend associated with global warming, leading to greater variability in climate patterns. These changes highlight the importance of forecasting methods that can accurately represent the characteristics of air temperature time series to support planning and decision-making. Reliable prediction is therefore essential for understanding climate dynamics and anticipating potential environmental impacts. This study proposes an air temperature forecasting approach using a hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) model. The ARIMA component is applied to model trend behavior and temporal dependence, while FSA captures the remaining seasonal patterns in the ARIMA residuals. By integrating these two approaches, the hybrid model aims to improve forecasting accuracy in the presence of both stochastic and periodic components. The results show that the hybrid ARIMA–FSA model achieves good forecasting performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.56, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.66, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.07%. These findings indicate that the proposed model effectively represents air temperature dynamics and can be considered a reliable alternative for climate forecasting applications
Adaptive ANFIS–PSO Model for Forecasting Bird’s Eye Chili Prices in Gorontalo Province Nur Siyam Djibu; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11473

Abstract

Bird’s eye chili is one of the strategic food commodities in Indonesia with high price volatility and a significant contribution to food inflation, particularly in Gorontalo Province. The dynamic and nonlinear characteristics of bird’s eye chili prices often hinder accurate forecasting when using conventional methods, thereby requiring an adaptive approach capable of capturing complex data patterns. Therefore, this study applies an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) optimized using Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to improve the accuracy of bird’s eye chili price forecasting. This study utilizes daily bird’s eye chili price data in Gorontalo Province from 1 January 2019 to 31 October 2025, obtained from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). The ANFIS model is optimized using adaptive PSO to obtain optimal parameter values that address local convergence problems and parameter sensitivity commonly encountered in conventional ANFIS models. Model performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the adaptive ANFIS–PSO model achieves a MAPE value of 17.4487% on the training dataset, which decreases significantly to 5.0741% on the testing dataset. The testing MAPE value below 10% demonstrates that the proposed model has excellent generalization capability in capturing bird’s eye chili price fluctuations. These findings confirm that adaptive PSO-based parameter optimization effectively enhances ANFIS performance in modelling nonlinear and highly volatile time series data. The proposed forecasting model can serve as a reliable analytical tool to support decision-making and regional food price stabilzation policies in Gorontalo Province.
Co-Authors Abdul Djabar Nento Abdul, Nur Safitri Abubakar, Agung Sucipto Adib Rizal Kundju Agung, Andi Aliwu, Randa Resvitasari Ana Nadiyyah Andi Agung Andi Agung Anggraini, Fitriana Anissa Dwi Wijayanti Aprina Manggarai Armayani Arsal Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Aswata Wisnuadji Azril Saputra Biga Bela Cintiya Samwan Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Cabelita Husuna Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Djuma, Clara Anggriani Eko Sulistyono Sulistyono Excel Muhammad Hendri Fajar Putrawan Djabar Fajri Ikhsan Feni Elliyin Ferawati Kai Ferawati Mardjun Franky Alfrits Oroh Ghivahri Sidik Mokoagow Gita Ramadhani Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Riyanto Ibrahim, Novita Ibran S. Tepanus Ikrar Prasetyo Hinelo Ipal Rahmat Jaya Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Janna, Miftahul K. Nasib, Salmun Kasim, Ranan La Ode Nashar La Ode Nashar La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Laita, Nazrilla Hasan Leidi Sigar Lindrawati Abdjul Mahmud, Sri Lestari Majid Majid Melasarah Deswita Rahmadi Miftahul Huda Moh Dody Afandi Rauf Mohamad, Regina Mohammad Dwitiar Nalole Muhammad Ikhlas Muhammad Rifai Katili Muhammad Yahya Ayyasy Mutmaina D. Maku Nina Valentika Nisky Imansyah Yahya Nisky Imansyah Yahya Nisky Imansyah Yahya Novianita Achmad Nunung Usman Nur Siyam Djibu NUR ’AIN SUPU Nursiya Bito NURWAN NURWAN Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Pakaya, Revandi S. Patra Lasantu Perry Zakaria Putri Anggraeni Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmi, Emli Randy Ferdiansyah Rasmawati Rasmawati Rasyid, Kamelia Rauf, Moh Dody Afandi Resmawan Resmawan Rozikin, Muhammad Rusniwati S. Imran Salmun K. Nasib Saltina, Saltina Sari, Lia Nanda Sidik Susilo Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Lestari Mahmud Sri Meylanti S. Ali Suci Tilome Sugito Mahendra Imran Sumarno Ismail Syafrudin, Marisa Syarif Abdullah Taulia Damayanti Tombokan, Baiti Nuralimah Usfita Kiftiyani Usman, Sri Adiningsi B. Valentika, Nina Wafa, Moh. Shohibul Widyastutifajri Nuha Yazid Rukmayadi Zaqiyah, Arfatuz