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All Journal Media Statistika SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan STIE Muhammadiyah Palopo M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Varian Inferensi ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya ADMA: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Indonesian Journal of Fundamental Sciences SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Aswi, Aswi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Social Sciences Other

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Determinants of Maternal Mortality in Indonesia: A B-Spline Nonparametric Regression Approach to Identify Nonlinear Relationship Patterns Annas, Suwardi; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat, Rahmat
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v11i1.1015

Abstract

Maternal health quality is commonly assessed using the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR), which remains relatively high in Indonesia compared to regional and global targets. Understanding the determinants of MMR is therefore crucial for effective health policy formulation. This study aims to analyze the influence of three key factors on MMR in Indonesia: the percentage of women aged 15–49 who have ever been married and given birth to a live child, the percentage of households with access to proper sanitation, and the average years of schooling. To capture potential nonlinear relationships that may not be adequately addressed by conventional parametric regression models, this study employs a nonparametric B-spline regression approach. The analysis was conducted using the R statistical software. Model selection was based on the Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) criterion to determine the optimal spline configuration. The results show that the optimal model achieves a minimum GCV value of 0.108 and an R² value of 0.8981, indicating a strong explanatory power and excellent model fit. The findings reveal that all three predictor variables have a significant and nonlinear effect on MMR. These results highlight the importance of considering flexible modeling approaches in maternal health studies and provide empirical evidence to support the development of more targeted and effective policies aimed at reducing maternal mortality in Indonesia.
Estimating the Relative Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Makassar City Using a Bayesian Spatial Localised Conditional Autoregressive Model Rahmawati; Aswi, Aswi; Hidayat , Rahmat; Palarungi Taufik, Andi Gagah
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/z0mxxw06

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) remains a significant public health challenge in Indonesia, including in Makassar City, which reported an increase of 291 cases in 2024. This study aimed to estimate the relative risk of DHF across 15 districts of Makassar by incorporating covariates such as population density, distance to the city center, and the number of hospitals, using a Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Localised approach. The data were obtained from the publication Makassar City in Figures 2025, issued by the Central Statistics Agency. Spatial autocorrelation analysis with Moran’s I indicated significant clustering of DHF cases. Model selection was conducted using the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), Watanabe–Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC), and group-level area coverage. The results showed that the best-fitting model was the CAR Localised model with distance as a covariate (M9), specified at G = 3 with hyperprior IG (1; 0.01). Distance exhibited a negative association with DHF incidence, suggesting that the farther a district is from the city center, the lower its relative risk. Among the districts, Rappocini exhibited the highest relative risk followed by Panakkukang, while the lowest risks were observed in Sangkarrang Islands. These findings provide valuable insights for designing spatially targeted DHF prevention and control strategies in Makassar City.
Tourism Forecasting Using Chen and Singh Fuzzy Time Series Models Vivianti, Vivianti; Aswi, Aswi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/w2554664

Abstract

The tourism sector is one of the main drivers of the national economy, which experienced a significant decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the post-pandemic era, the recovery of international tourist arrivals shows a positive trend, thus requiring accurate forecasting methods to support tourism policy planning. ARIMA method are less effective in handling nonlinear and fluctuating data. This study applies the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) approach, specifically the Chen and Singh models, which are capable of managing data uncertainty and representing linguistic patterns adaptively. The purpose of this study is to compare the accuracy of both models using two interval determination approaches, namely the Sturges method and the mean-based method, in forecasting international tourist arrivals through Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport during the period from January 2023 to September 2025. The analytical steps include defining the universe of discourse, performing fuzzification, constructing fuzzy logical relationships (FLR) and fuzzy logical relationship groups (FLRG), and applying defuzzification to obtain forecasted values. The forecasting accuracy was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results show that the choice of interval determination method significantly affects forecasting performance, with the mean-based method producing more detailed and accurate intervals. Based on the evaluation, the FTS Singh model demonstrated the best performance, with MAPE of 2.16% and RMSE of 31.05, outperforming the Chen model under both interval approaches. Therefore, the combination of the FTS Singh model with the mean-based interval method is recommended as the optimal approach for forecasting post-pandemic international tourist arrivals, as it can capture fluctuating data patterns more precisely and consistently.
Co-Authors Abdul Rahmat Abidin, Muh. Zulkifli Abidin, Muhammad Rais Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aisyah Putri , Siti Choirotun Annas, Suwardi Annas, Suwarni Aprilia Wardani Syam , Dewi Assagaf, Said Fachry Awaluddin Awaluddin Awi Dassa, Awi Awi, Awi Bakri, Nurul Aulya Cramb, Susanna Diana Eka Pratiwi Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fajar Arwadi Folorunso, Serifat Adedamola Haekal, Muh. Fahri Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ Hidayat , Rahmat Hisyam Ihsan Ikhwana, Nur Isnaini, Wulan Maulia Lalu Ramzy Rahmanda M. Miftach Fakhri Mahadtir, Muhamad Mangkona, Andi Ilham Azhar Mar'ah, Zakiyah Muhammad Arif Tiro, Muhammad Arif Muhammad Fahmuddin Muttaqin, Imam Akbar Natalia, Derliani Novianti, Andi Rima Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati Nurhilaliyah, Nurhilaliyah Nurwan, Nurwan Oktaviana Oktaviana Palarungi Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi, Andi Gagah Poerwanto, Bobby Poewanto, Bobby Putri Ananda, Elma Yulia Putri, Siti Choiratun Aisyah Putri, Siti Choirotun Aisyah Rahmat Hidayat Rahmawati Rais, Zulkifli Ramadani, Reski Aulia Risma Mastory Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana S, Muhammad Fahmuddin Saleh, Andi Rahmat Shanty, Meyrna Vidya Sudarmin Sudarmin Sukarna Sukarna Sukarna, Sukarna Sulistiawaty Sulistiawaty, Sulistiawaty Suwardi Annas Taufik, Andi Gagah Palarungi Vivianti Wahidah Sanusi Yassar, La Ode Salman Yudi, Wanda Yunus, Sitti Rahma