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Inayati Nuraini Dwiputri
Universitas Negeri Malang
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Economic Development Analysis Journal

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Projections of Regional Macroeconomic Conditions using the Univariate Forecasting Method Inayati Nuraini Dwiputri; Muhammad Syam Kusufi; Albertus Girik Allo
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 8 No 3 (2019): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v8i3.30188

Abstract

The prediction of future macroeconomic conditions is needed by the government to carry out the planning and budgeting. This study predicts macro indicators in Hulu Sungai Utara Regency in the period 2017-2022. The method used is univariateforecasting, which includes the ARIMA model, exponential smoothing, and exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. The macroeconomic indicators used in this study are real Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP), economic growth, unemployment rate, and income distribution. The results of the analysis show that Brown's forecasting model is predicted that the real GDRP value tends to increase, forecasting results using a simple model on economic growth and the ARIMA (0.0,0) model on the unemployment rate, had predicted tends to be constant. And, the prediction of income distribution with the Holt model tends to increase. Keywords: macroeconomic, univariate, forecasting, ARIMA, exponential smoothing JEL Classification: E0, O1, C0
Co-Authors Abbas, Muhammad Hasyim Ibnu Abd Majid, Mohamad Zuber Abdul Azis Abdul Azis Aditya Pratama Agus Sumanto Agus Sumanto Akhmad Makhfatih Albertus Girik Allo Andy Prasetyo Wati Anggraeni, Dea Annisya Annisya' Annisya, Annisya Annisya’, Annisya’ Aprioyono, Achmad Berlian, Salshabila Cenny Julitasari Timur Dea Anggraeni Dian Rachmawati Dian Wahyuningsih Difa(1), Farach Difa, Farach Difa, Farach Dwi Wulandari Dwi Wulandari Endang Sri Andayani Ermita Yusida Etty Soesilowati Ezra Oktiano Prasetja Fanisa, Tania Putri Febry Wijayanti Firman, Akmad Firmansyah, Fajar Fitjriyah, Alya Ryanti Grisvia Agustin Handayani, Sri Harbani, Parikesit Sukma Ilyas Ilyas Ilyas Ilyas Imam Mukhlis Isalman, Isalman Isupova, Ekaterina Khasanah(3), Uswatun Khasanah, Uswatun La Ode Anto, La Ode Anto Lestari, Wiji Indah Linda Seprillina Lustina Fajar Prastiwi Makhfatih, Akhmad Makhfatih, Akhmad Marcus Maspaitella Markhamah, Siti Muhammad Syam Kusufi Nadila Dwi Adika Nidya Ayu Setya Ningrum Niken Ningtiyas Ningrum, Linda Agustin Nuni Budi Prastiwi Nur Anita Yunikawati Nurinda, Mei Sulfia Prasetiyani, Erni Prastiwi, Nuni Budi Putra Hilmi Prayitno Qodri, Lutfi Asnan Risdia Intan Fajarisa Rizky Dwi Putri Rizza Megasari Roosyidah, Naafi'atul Santi Merlinda Sembiring, Rinawati Sri Handayani Sri Umi Mintarti Thomas Soseco Vidya Purnamasari Wahjoedi Wahjoedi Wahyuningsih, Rani Destia Wiwin Hartanto Yoga, Andriawan Yudistira Hendra Permana Zakaria, Muhammad Rizki Zulfia, Binta