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Studi Prediktif Dampak Dukungan Jokowi Sebagai Outgoing President Terhadap Peluang Kemenangan Kandidat Presiden Yang Didukungnya Pada Pilpres 2024: Pola kasus: Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, dan Duterte Amri Hakim; Zamhasari
JOELS: Journal of Election and Leadership Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): JOELS : Journal of Election and Leadership
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31849/joels.v4i1.12446

Abstract

This paper aims to find the impact of outgoing president support to the winning probability of its endorsed candidate in presidential election, and predicts the winning probability of Jokowi’s endorsed candidate in Indonesia 2024 presidential election. By generalizing Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, and Duterte’s cases it is found that president candidates who endorsed by outgoing presidents with at least 50% public approval have 71% chance to winning the presidential election and 29% chance to lose, and with the public approval over 85% the probability is increase to 100%. The endorsed candidates who wins the election mostly were the minister of outgoing president whose contribute to the high approval ratings. Meanwhile, in the case of lost candidates the unfirm support from outgoing presiden and the candidate who already had been president with 28% approval ratings found as the causes. Through this generalization it is predicted that if Jokowi able to maintain his public approval rating at least 50%, and endorse one of his success ministers whom also come from the same party then in the 2024 Indonesia’s president election this candidate possibly will be the winner with 71% chance, also if his approval ratings reaching out over 85% the chance will be 100%.
DAMPAK PEMILIHAN KEPALA DAERAH (PILKADA) TERHADAP DEMOKRASI: TINJAUAN KELEBIHAN DAN KEKURANGAN PILKADA SERENTAK DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2024 Zamhasari, Zamhasari
Jurnal Pendidikan Dasar dan Sosial Humaniora Vol. 3 No. 10: Agustus 2024
Publisher : Bajang Institute

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Abstract

General Elections are a fundamental element in a democratic system, functioning as a formal mechanism for the people to express their will and elect leaders and representatives. However, the mere existence of elections is not sufficient to ensure that a country is truly democratic. Democratic elections ensure that all citizens have equal voting rights and that the election process is conducted transparently, without coercion, manipulation, or fraud. This study not only uses a survey method to collect data, but also involves interventions in data collection through questionnaires, tests, and interviews. The main objective of this research is to explore the advantages and disadvantages of the implementation of the Concurrent Regional Head Elections in 2024 and to analyze its impact on the quality of democracy in the region. The researcher adopts David Held's Participatory Democracy Theory (1987), which emphasizes the importance of active citizen participation in the political process as a fundamental basis for a healthy democracy. The results of this study are expected to provide deeper insights into how Concurrent Elections affects the dynamics of democracy in Indonesia and offer recommendations to improve the quality of political participation in the future
E-Leadership for the Future: Sosialisasi Kepemimpinan Berbasis Digital sebagai Bekal Karir Pasca Sekolah Safitri, Kinanti Indah; Rambe, Wahyudi; Zamhasari; Musnal, Mohammad Filbert; Wahyudi, Prima
Beujroh : Jurnal Pemberdayaan dan Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Beujroh : Jurnal Pemberdayaan dan Pengabdian pada Masyarakat
Publisher : Yayasan Sagita Akademia Maju

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61579/beujroh.v3i1.384

Abstract

Kemajuan teknologi di era digital menuntut generasi muda memiliki keterampilan kepemimpinan berbasis digital sebagai bekal penting untuk memasuki dunia kerja. Program E-Leadership for the Future: Sosialisasi Kepemimpinan Berbasis Digital sebagai Bekal Karir Pasca Sekolah bertujuan untuk memperkenalkan konsep e-leadership kepada siswa SMK, khususnya pengurus OSIS di SMK PGRI Pekanbaru. Kegiatan ini dirancang untuk mengembangkan keterampilan komunikasi digital, manajemen tim virtual, serta pengambilan keputusan berbasis data. Metode yang digunakan meliputi sosialisasi, diskusi interaktif, dan studi kasus untuk memfasilitasi pembelajaran yang aplikatif. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa peserta memiliki pemahaman lebih baik tentang penerapan teknologi dalam kepemimpinan dan mampu merancang strategi inovatif untuk mendukung aktivitas organisasi mereka. Program ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya saing generasi muda dan mendorong mereka menjadi pemimpin yang efektif di dunia profesional yang semakin digital.
MENGHADAPI TANTANGAN: ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEBERHASILAN KELOMPOK USAHA PERHUTANAN SOSIAL (KUPS) DI KABUPATEN LIMA PULUH KOTA SUMATERA BARAT Suryaningsih, Suryaningsih; Zamhasari, Zamhasari
Jurnal Cakrawala Ilmiah Vol. 4 No. 3: Nopember 2024
Publisher : Bajang Institute

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Abstract

Artikel ini membahas tentang tantangan yang dihadapi oleh Kelompok Usaha Perhutanan Sosial (KUPS) di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota, Sumatera Barat. Sejak lahirnya Permenlhk P.83/Menlhk/Setjen/Kum.1/10/2016 tentang Perhutanan Sosial jumlah KPS dan KUPS yang ada di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota seperti jamur di musim hujan. Peningkatan jumlah KUPS yang banyak tersebut tidak berbanding lurus dengan kesejahteraan anggotanya. Tujuan dari artikel ini untuk menganalisis dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor kunci yang mempengaruhi kerberhasilan KUPS di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif dengan penumpulan data melalui observasi lapangan, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor utama yang mempengaruhi keberhasilan KUPS di Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota terkait dengan community development yang ditunjukkan dengan indikator kelompok yang tidak menjalankan peran dan tanggung jawabnya serta kelemahan dalam melakukan managemen pengelolaan kelompoknya
Pragmatisme Partai Islam: Strategi Politik Terbuka Partai Keadilan Sejahtera dalam Pemilihan Gubernur dan Wakil Gubernur Riau Tahun 2018 Syamsuadi, Amir; Zamhasari, Zamhasari; Hartati, Seri; Trisnawati, Liza
JISPO Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Vol. 10 No. 1 (2020): Vol. 10 No. 1 2020 | JISPO Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik
Publisher : Faculty of SociaI and Political Sciences (FISIP), Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/jispo.v10i1.8162

Abstract

Artikel ini mengkaji strategi politik terbuka Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) dalam memenangkan persaingan pemilihan gubernur dan wakil gubernur di Provinsi Riau pada tahun 2018. PKS dan partai koalisinya saat itu mengusung pasangan Syamsuar-Edy Natar. PKS melakukan sejumlah strategi politik untuk memenangkan persaingan tersebut, yaitu mobilisasi massa, optimalisasi koalisi partai, pemberdayaan politik, dan strategi komunikasi politik. Artikel ini berargumen bahwa untuk memenangkan persaingan politik, PKS membangun pragmatisme politik dengan menggunakan strategi politik terbuka dalam sistem politik demokrasi di Indonesia. Karena itu, anggapan bahwa PKS menganut ideologi Islam politik yang tertutup dan hanya menunggangi sistem demokrasi adalah kurang tepat. Sebagai partai Islam terbesar di Indonesia, PKS berhasil membuktikan bahwa pragmatisme politik melalui strategi politik terbuka menjadi kunci penopang keberhasilannya dalam persaingan politik di Indonesia. By the 2019 General Election, which took place in 17 April 2019, political parties competed each other to attract voters, especially from late adolescents (aged 18-21). This article analyses the relationship between political trust and intention to vote among the late adolescent voters. Focusing its analysis on students at a university in Surabaya, this article uses a quantitative method with correlational research design. The subject of this study was 214 active students. Using accidental sampling as the sampling method, data were collected through questionnaire and analysed through Spearman’s rho correlation test. The results of this study show that political trust had a positive correlation with voting intention among the late adolescents as seen in the case of university students in Surabaya.
Dinamika Politik Calon Tunggal Pilkada Serentak 2024 di Kabupaten Dharmasraya Suryaningsih, Suryaningsih; Putri, Rianda Prima; Mulya, Rizki Afri; Zamhasari, Zamhasari; Gafar, Tengku Fahrul
Indonesian Research Journal on Education Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Irje 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan, Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/irje.v5i3.3119

Abstract

Fenomena calon tunggal dalam Pilkada merupakan gejala politik yang semakin sering muncul di berbagai daerah di Indonesia. Pada pilkada serentak tahun 2024 ini ada 37 daerah yang memiliki calon tunggal dan salah satunya adalah Kabupaten Dharmasraya di Sumatera Barat. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dinamika politik yang melatarbelakangi munculnya calon tunggal di Kabupaten Dharmasraya pada pilkada serentak tahun 2024. Melalui metode studi literatur dapat digali, dipahami, dan dianalisis fenomena politik calon tunggal dalam pilkada serentak 2024 di Kabupaten Dharmasraya. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa adanya dominasi partai politik tertentu, lemahnya oposisi, serta strategi pemenangan yang pragmatis turut mendorong terbentuknya situasi calon tunggal. Meski prosedur demokrasi secara formal tetap dijalankan, kehadiran calon tunggal menunjukkan kecenderungan pelemahan kompetisi politik yang substansial. Artikel ini merekomendasikan perlunya reformulasi kebijakan kepemiluan yang mendorong partisipasi dan kompetisi sehat, guna menjaga semangat demokrasi di tingkat lokal.
RESILIENT TRADITIONS OF ISLAMIC THOUGHT: Navigating Religion and Politics in Indonesia’s Emerging Future Zamhasari, Zamhasari
Journal of Innovation Research and Knowledge Vol. 5 No. 3: Agustus 2025
Publisher : Bajang Institute

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Abstract

This paper examines how the tradition of Islamic thought in Indonesia demonstrates resilience and the capacity for transformation in the face of contemporary socio-political changes—from identity polarization and populism, to the challenges of digital governance and environmental sustainability. Using a qualitative-interpretive approach based on literature, this study maps the philosophical foundations of resilience in Indonesian Islamic thought (ijtihad, maslahah, maqāṣid al-sharī‘ah, musyawarah/ijmā‘, and wasatiyyah), examines the dynamics of mass organizations (NU, Muhammadiyah) and the Islamist movement, and formulates the future direction of democratic, inclusive, and socially just religion-state relations. The paper’s novel contribution is the proposal of a “philosophies of resilience” framework as a lens to bridge tradition and innovation, formulate a values-based policy research agenda, and integrate the discourse of green Islam and digital ethics into the study of Indonesian religion-politics.
Analysis of the Village Head Replacement Mechanism Based on Law Number 6 of 2014 concerning Villages and Derivative Regulations Suryaningsih, Suryaningsih; Krisnawansyah, Yahya; Zamhasari, Zamhasari; Gafar, Tengku Fahrul; Octavia, Santi
Jurnal Ilmiah Ekotrans & Erudisi Vol. 3 No. 2 (2023): Desember 2023
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Ekasakti

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.69989/yc477509

Abstract

Law no. 6 of 2014 concerning villages regulates the appointment and dismissal of village heads. In carrying out the mandate for 6 years, it cannot be denied that along the way the village head will die, resign or be dismissed for one reason or another. Law no. 6/2014 does not regulate in detail the mechanism for replacing the village head. The replacement mechanism is regulated in derivative regulations, such as government regulations (PP) and several Minister of Home Affairs regulations. This article will analyze the mechanism for replacing village heads as regulated in the village law and its derivatives. The results of the research show that Law no. 6 of 2014 and its derivative regulations stipulate that if the village head dies, resigns from his position, and fulfills one of the conditions for being dismissed, the BPD reports to the regent via the sub-district head. The regent/mayor will make a decision to permanently dismiss the village head. The replacement of the village head then looks at 2 things, firstly, if the remaining term of office of the dismissed village head is less than 1 year, then leadership in the village will be held by the acting village head until the village head election. However, if the remaining term of office of the village head is more than 1 year, then leadership in the village is held by the acting village head until the village head is elected at the village meeting.
Inquisitorial: Menelusuri Titik Terminal Keberangkatan Ilmu Pemerintahan Di Indonesia Gafar, T. Fahrul; Jamil, Zamhasari
ARISTO Vol 6 No 1 (2018): Januari
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Ponorogo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24269/ars.v6i1.805

Abstract

This research is a scientific effort to trace the historical footsteps of the birth, growth, and development of Government Science in Indonesia. The disclosure of the early phenomenon of science would certainly be the gateway in giving a pure understanding of that science. so that, the result of its inquiry can serve as one of the main sources/ references that provide complete and comprehensive information for further study of Government Science. This study used a qualitative approach with descriptive type and with the library research form. In this study, the researcher observed the object of research through literature materials so that the theories underlying the problems in the field under study can be clearly revealed. With the selection of approaches, types, and forms of research, will certainly be able to reveal in depth how the historical roots of Government Science and able to emphasize the locus / position of Government Science among other state sciences.
Sosialisasi dan Peningkatan Kapasitas Perangkat Nagari Dalam Penyusunan Dokumen Pelaksanaan Anggaran (DPA) dan Rancangan Anggaran Kas (RAK) Sesuai Dengan Permendagri No. 20/2018 tentang Pengelolaan Keuangan Desa Suryaningsih Suryaningsih; Rianda Prima Putri; Zamhasari Zamhasari; Tengku Fahrul Gafar
Jurnal Nusantara Berbakti Vol. 1 No. 3 (2023): Juli : Jurnal Nusantara Berbakti
Publisher : Universitas Kristen Indonesia Toraja

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59024/jnb.v1i3.181

Abstract

The village government is required to carry out village financial management in a transparent, accountable, participatory, orderly and disciplined manner. Therefore, after the APBDesa has been determined, the village head assigns village officials as executors of village financial management (PPKD) to prepare Budget Implementation Documents (DPA). This DPA consists of; Village Activities and Budget Plans (RKA), Village Activity Work Plans (RKK), and Budget Plans (RAB). This community service is carried out so that the nagari apparatus has the capacity to compile these three documents. The steps taken in this service activity are: site visits, site analysis, socialization, FGD, and closed with the practice of preparing DPA. The result of this community service activity is that the nagari apparatus understands more about regulations in village financial management, knows the flow in preparing DPA and RAK, and becomes skilled in preparing DPA and RAK.