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All Journal KALAM CENDEKIA PGSD KEBUMEN REZ PUBLICA JKP (Jurnal Konseling dan Psikoedukasi) Teras Jurnal JURNAL MUQODDIMAH : Jurnal Ilmu Sosial, Politik dan Hummaniora JMM (Jurnal Masyarakat Mandiri) Astonjadro EKONOMI BISNIS Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Al Ulum: LPPM Universitas Al Washliyah Medan Jurnal Derma Pengabdian Dosen Perguruan Tinggi (Jurnal DEPUTI) Jurnal Ilmu Hukum, Humaniora dan Politik (JIHHP) Jurnal Ilmu Multidisplin All Fields of Science Journal Liaison Academia and Sosiety kawanad jes
IRMA DEWI
Fakultas Ilmu Budaya Universitas Brawijaya
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Pengembangan Model ARIMA untuk Prediksi Keberlanjutan Lingkungan dan Konstruksi Pesisir: Studi Kasus Terintegrasi di Pelabuhan Belawan: Pengembangan Model ARIMA untuk Prediksi Keberlanjutan Lingkungan dan Konstruksi Pesisir: Studi Kasus Terintegrasi di Pelabuhan Belawan Dewi, Irma; pane, yunita_pane; Nurzanah, Wiwin; Chandra, Yovi
Teras Jurnal : Jurnal Teknik Sipil Vol. 15 No. 2 (2025): Teras Jurnal (September)
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MALIKUSSALEH

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/tj.v15i2.1291

Abstract

Abstrak   Wilayah pesisir Pelabuhan Belawan, Sumatera Utara, memainkan peran strategis dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional, khususnya di sektor logistik dan ekspor-impor. Namun, intensifikasi aktivitas industri dan pelabuhan telah menimbulkan tekanan signifikan terhadap lingkungan dan daya tahan infrastruktur pesisir. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model prediktif berbasis ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) untuk memproyeksikan keberlanjutan lingkungan dan konstruksi pesisir secara terintegrasi. Data deret waktu tahunan yang mencakup variabel lingkungan (curah hujan, kualitas air) dan teknis konstruksi (usia struktur, frekuensi perawatan, kerusakan) dianalisis untuk mengidentifikasi tren dan pola jangka panjang yang berpotensi memengaruhi keberlanjutan sistem pelabuhan. Hasil uji Augmented Dickey-Fuller menunjukkan bahwa hampir seluruh variabel bersifat stasioner kecuali usia struktur yang memerlukan diferensiasi. Model AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (2,1,2) menunjukkan performa terbaik untuk sebagian besar variabel berdasarkan evaluasi AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, dan MAPE, sementara AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (3,2,4) optimal untuk usia struktur. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan ARIMA mampu secara efektif menangkap dinamika perubahan lingkungan dan teknis di wilayah pesisir Belawan, serta mendukung pengambilan keputusan adaptif dalam perencanaan pengelolaan pelabuhan berkelanjutan.   Kata kunci: Model ARIMA, Keberlanjutan Lingkungan, Konstruksi Pesisir, Pelabuan Belawan     Abstract   The coastal region of Belawan Port, North Sumatra, plays a strategic role in supporting national economic growth, particularly in the logistics and export-import sectors. However, the intensification of industrial and port activities has imposed significant pressure on the environment and the resilience of coastal infrastructure. This study aims to develop an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average)-based predictive model to project the sustainability of environmental conditions and coastal construction in an integrated manner. Annual time series data covering environmental variables (rainfall, water quality) and technical construction aspects (structure age, maintenance frequency, damage) were analyzed to identify long-term trends and patterns potentially affecting the sustainability of the port system. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results indicate that nearly all variables are stationary, except for structural age, which required differencing. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (2,1,2) model demonstrated the best performance for most variables based on evaluations of AIC, BIC, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE, while AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (3,2,4) was optimal for structural age. These findings suggest that the ARIMA approach can effectively capture the dynamic environmental and technical changes in the Belawan coastal area and support adaptive decision-making in sustainable port management planning.   Keywords: ARIMA Model, Environmental Sustainability, Coastal Construction, Belawan Port
Analisis Standar Mutu Batu Bata Merah Tradisional Di Deli Serdang Dengan Indikator SNI 15-2094-2000 Frapanti, Sri; Efrida, Rizki; Dewi, Irma; Asfiati, Sri; Riza, Fetra Venny
Teras Jurnal : Jurnal Teknik Sipil Vol. 13 No. 1 (2023): Volume 13 No 1, Maret 2023
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS MALIKUSSALEH

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/tj.v13i1.852

Abstract

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kualitas bata merah di Kabupaten Deli Serdang, Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Indonesia dengan standar SNI 15-2094-2000 sebagai acuannya. Jumlah sampel bata merah sebanyak 405 buah dari 15 Kecamatan. Pengujian yang dilakukan berupa pengujian sifat tampak, ukuran dan toleransi, kuat tekan, penyerapan air, dan kandungan garam. Hasil analisis pengujian sifat tampak untuk warna seragam sebanyak 80% sampel, nyaring bila dipukul 66,7%, sudut siku 53%, datar 86,7%, dan tidak retak sebesar 86,7%. Untuk ukuran dan toleransi sebanyak 66,6% sampel tidak memenuhi standar, untuk kuat tekan rata-rata 100% tidak memenuhi standar karena di bawah 5 Mpa. Hasil penyerapan air hanya 1,9% sampel yang memenuhi standar di bawah 20%, dan untuk kadar garam seluruh sampel memenuhi standar SNI 15-2094-2000. Kata kunci: bata merah, deli serdang, kuat tekan, standar SNI 15-2094-2000.  Abstract This study aims to determine the quality of red bricks in Deli Serdang Regency, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia with the SNI 15-2094-2000 standard as a reference. The number of red brick samples is 405 from 15 districts. Tests carried out in the form of testing the appearance, size and tolerances, compressive strength, water absorption, and salt content. The results of the analysis of visible properties for uniform color were 80% of the sample, loud when hit 66.7%, 53% right angle, 86.7% flat, and 86.7% uncracked. For size and tolerance as much as 66.6% of the sample does not meet the standard, for an average compressive strength of 100% it does not meet the standard because it is below 5 MPa. The results of water absorption were only 1.9% of the sample which met the standard below 20%, and for the salt content of all. Keywords: red brick, Deli Serdang, compressive strength, SNI 15-2094-2000 standard.
Co-Authors A, Arfis Ajinar Ali, Masri ALI, NURDIN AMBARWATI, ARIE Arif, Zainal Asfiati, Sri Astuty, Widya Ayunitapane@umsu.ac.id, Arfis Efrida, Rizki Ekarini, Dessy Fetra Venny Riza Fikri, Ahmad Ma'mun Frapanti, Sri Gultom , Muhammad Husin Gunawan, Desi Gunawan, Randi Husni INDRAYANI INDRAYANI Lilik E., Mas RoRo Lubis, Riadhini Wanty M. Nizar Machmud Masri Ibrahim Mirdawati, Mirdawati Muhammad Yusuf Muharnif M Mulia Mulia Nasution, Elvy Sahnur Nurzanah, Wiwin Pane, Yunita pane, yunita_pane Prayuti, Yuyut Ridwan Syahran Sinurat, Fadlah Siregar, Zulkifli Syahrizal Taringan, M. Sidik Thalib, Mansyur Togar Timoteus Gultom Wildan Wildan Yovi Chandra Yusri, Mohammad Yusri, Mohd.