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Journal : Media Statistika

MODELING OF WORLD CRUDE OIL PRICE BASED ON PULSE FUNCTION INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH Aliffia, Netha; Sediono, Sediono; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Amelia, Dita
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.136-147

Abstract

Crude oil has important role in global economy, including Indonesia with considerable dependence on crude oil energy consumption. The increase in crude oil prices can be triggered by several factors, one of which is geopolitical conflict that occurred due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. As the result, world crude oil prices rose above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Therefore, this study uses pulse function intervention analysis approach to evaluate the impact of certain events in predicting data over the next few periods. The pulse function is used because the intervention occurs at the moment t only. The data used starts from June 8, 2020 to September 19, 2022 on weekly basis with the proportion of training and testing data is 90:10. The best intervention model obtained is ARIMA (3,2,0) with b=0, s=1, r=2, and intervention point at T=91. The prediction results for the next 12 periods obtained MAPE value of 2.8982% and MSE of 10.2687. This study is expected to help reduce risks due to uncertainty in world crude oil prices and in line with the goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure access to reliable, sustainable, and affordable energy.
Co-Authors Adyatma, Isryad Yoga Afifa, Fitriana Nur Aflaha, Nabila Shafa Ahmed Bakhit, Mohammed Elfadil Alexandra, Victoria Anggia Aliffia, Netha Alisa Tri Nawarini, Alisa Tri Ariani, Fildzah Tri Januar Arini, Destia Vindha Aris Kurniawan Aris Susetyo Ariyawan, Jovansha Arofah, Triani Arrofah, Aini Divayanti ary yunanto Astuti, Nurul Istiqomah Tri Aulia, Niswa Faizah Auliyah, Nina Bambang Agus Pramuka Christiano Ginzel, Bryan Given Dewanty, Sanda Insania Dewi Susilowati Dewi, Cyntia Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Eliada Herwiyanti Elly Ana Evelyn, Jennifer Fadliyana Ekawaty Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitriani, Mubadi'ul Fortunata, Regina Gunistiyo, Gunistiyo Hizbullah, Firqa Aqila Indradewa, Rhian Indyastuti, Nurhayati Irawan, Andry Julianto, Agnes Happy Kholidiyah, Azizatul Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Mahfudhotin, Mahfudhotin MANDIRA, DARA AJENG Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin Najmudin Naura, Sheila Sevira Asteriska Nendyah Roestijawati Nugraha, Galuh Cahya Nurdin, Nabila OKTARIA, RINA RINA Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa Parno Parno Prabaningrum, Meliyana Rizki Pradipta, Refius Pratama, Bagas Shata Pratama, Fachriza Yosa PUJI LESTARI Rachmatiko, Rofi Rahab Rahab, Rahab Rahmajati, Emir Surya Rakhma , Syavrilia Alfiatur Ramadhanti, Aulia Raya, Kezya Bato Riska Amalya Nasution Rohiwan, Sidik Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Salsabila, Hanif Sediono, Sediono Setyowati, Ratna Faridah Shabariyatun, Tri Aprilisa Siti Zulaikha Sudarto Sudarto Sulasih Sulasih Suryati Suryati Suyono, Billy Christandy Tjahjono, Eko Toha Saifudin Ubadah, Mohammad Noufal Valida, Hanny Wahyuningtyas, Ida Puspitarini Weni Novandari Weni, Weni Wulandari, Indana Zulfa Yosifa, Adelia Frielady Yuwono, Antri Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah