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The future of cellular industry in indonesia – ascenario planning approach Balqis Fajarwanto, Adi; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 7, No 3 (2018)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract. Purpose : The purpose of this research is to develop possible scenarios for cellular industry in Indonesia for the next 5 years by identifying its key drivers and its key uncertainties. The possible scenarios will then used as groundwork to develop future strategy of cellular providers in Indonesia. Introduction: The telecommunications industry in Indonesia continued to experience dynamic change with intensified competitive landscape with consumer demand for data traffic grew significantly while demand for traditional legacy products –voice and SMS- declined. At the same time, cellular providers continued to experience considerable uncertainty and risk from a regulatory perspective which cellular industry hopes that the regulatory environment will continue to evolve in a direction that is supportive of future growth. Methods: This research use adaptive scenario planning with main data input are collected through interviewing expert and cellular stakeholders in Indonesia, and literature review.  Results: Four different scenarios are developed with demand and regulation become the two critical uncertainties. Narrow road, the new emerging, the declining, and the dry season are scenarios developed by combination of different situation of demand and regulation in Indonesia. For each scenario cellular providers have option and different strategy recommendation. The scenario planning approach does not aim to predict the most likely future, but to describe what could possibly and plausibly happen in the cellular industry in Indonesia, and how cellular providers might deal with the situation.  Keywords:  cellular, scenario planning, strategy, telecommunication.
Evaluating and Improving the Budget Absorption in the Human Resource Development Agency of Ministry Energy and Mineral Resource Supriyanto, Teguh; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 6, No 2 (2017)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract. Implementation of activities and budgets in the HRDA-EMR has not been in line with expectations. One indication is the absorption of the budget that has not reached the set target and is still concentrated at the end of the budget year. Budget absorption is one indicator that can indicate the success of the program or policy conducted by the HRDA-EMR. By using qualitative descriptive method, this research is intended to analyze the factors that influence budget absorption. This study found that planning, administration and regulatory factors were the main factors affecting budget absorption in all work units at the HRDA-EMR. Good planning and supported by an organized administration will greatly help the level of budget absorption. In addition, internal control system is required from the beginning of planning in order to detect the possibility of early budget absorption failure. Internal control system also has an important role to know the development of budget absorption. Meanwhile, to speed up the absorption of state budget, it is necessary to monitor the control through monitoring and evaluation of activity and budget routinely so that all problems and obstacles during the implementation process of the budget can be found solution and its solution.Keywords: Absorption, Budget, internal control system, monitoring and evaluation
Business strategy evaluation using scenario planning in pt bukit asam (persero) tbk Wicaksono, Setiadi; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 5, No 3 (2016)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract – PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk has develop long term strategic plans based on vision “To be a world-class energy company that cares about the environment”. It was single scenario that focus on developing company value chain on coal mining, power, and coal beneficiation in order to align with the vision. Challenge come, when coal industry facing a great uncertainty that gives high impact in Coal Price and Environmental Regulation. Single scenario could not be applied to survive in those uncertainty future. Scenario planning is a way to develop the groundwork for a strategic plan that doesn’t place the company’s future on the emergence of a single “most likely scenario”. Instead it recognizes that at any point in time, there is an array of possible futures that could potentially unfold.  Based on uncertainty factor in Coal Price and Environmental Regulation, PTBA develop 4 scenario planning: Dark Age (Low Coal Price – Loose Environmental Regulation), A New Hope (High Coal Price – Loose Environmental Regulation), Life in Transition (Low Coal Price – Tight Environmental Regulation), and The New World (High Coal Price – Tight Environmental Regulation). Each of scenario planning has certain implications, which need certain option/strategy to deal with it. It also equipped with early warning signal as monitoring tool the emergence of one scenario in which management should prepare certain option/strategy to adapt with upcoming scenario Keyword: Scenario planning, Coal Industry, Coal Price, Environmental Regulation
Developing the Urban Transportation Business Model (Case Study: Restructuring Business Model of PDJT Transpakuan Bogor) Widya Ayuningtyas, Dwi; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 6, No 2 (2017)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract - The condition of the transportation system in Bogor faces many challenges, particularly in managing the traffic system, harmonizing the transportation modes, and also tackling the social as well as economic issues. As the regional government who has obligation to manage the urban transportation in Bogor, the Government of Bogor City established the regional owned company, PDJT TransPakuan as a company who has vital roles in servicing the public transportation in Bogor City and also expected to be one source of Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD). However, from its establishment until now, the condition of PDJT TransPakuan never recorded profit because of some challenges that they faced. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to help PDJT TransPakuan solving their problem to increase their performance both in service aspect and financial aspect. This research is using qualitative and quantitative approach to identify the problems and to define the solution for PDJT TransPakuan, in this research the unit business that would be restructured is TransPakuan city bus. The qualitative approach used to identify the factors that influencing the company by interview the experts consist of the director of the company and the urban transportation consultants. Afterward, the quantitative approach used to make scoring of those factors. The methods that used in this research are PEST (Political, Economic, Social, and Technological) analysis, Porter’s Five Forces analysis, resources analysis, rootcause analysis, and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. Furthermore, defining the strategies by using the TOWS matrix based on the result from SWOT analysis. The strategies which generated from the TOWS matrix used to develop proposed new business model. The analysis of financial performance and the projection also been made as a verification that the proposed new business model will work well and fit to the company. The result shows that to become a sustainable company, PDJT TransPakuan should improve their performance by restructuring their business model and applying the strategies as a solution to solve the problems and achieve the goals. The company should have a commercial mindset, not only focusing on the service. Based on the assessment, the appropriate new business model to the company is developing new route and add more buses, partnering with third parties for the advertising business, and renting out the spot location for ducting fiber optic. By running this kind of business model, as shown in the financial projection, TransPakuan could increase the revenue and could minimize the subsidy from the government of Bogor. Furthermore, PDJT TransPakuan will become a profitable company. So that, the company should apply the strategies as well as the new businesses and then monitor the implementation continuously.Keywords: urban transportation, business restructuring, business model canvas
Decision analysis of shifting lng business model from upstream to downstream in pt badak ngl using analytic hierarchy process (ahp) Gugun Gumati, Anggun; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 5, No 3 (2016)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract — PT Badak NGL is one of vital asset that Indonesia has. Currently, PT Badak NGL is Non-profit Entity that has been operated by join management group (JMG). All of operational expenditure will be claimed to the gas producers without take any profit for the company. Government, based on law 22/2001, actually has another option of business model that is possible to be applied in this company. The option is downstream business model. Downstream model allows LNG Company like PT Badak NGL to take margin from selling gas. For making decision shifting from existing business model to new business model, there are two big questions; comparing two business model which business model is considered give higher value of business? And what factors should be considered to make that decision? The selection process of those business models can be considered as multi-criteria decision making problem, and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is one of the tools available that can be used to answer those two questions. Before answering the question which business model is better than the other, it needs to define decision criteria or sub criteria. It would answer second question regarding factor that should be considered for making decision. And at the end it would to compare both business models with considering that factors or criteria to answer which business model that give higher value of business. There are 4 main factors that should be considered. Those are company growth, supply growth, government control and buyer. The decision maker is MoEMR. In this research, the recommendation for the decision makers comes from SKK Migas and PT Badak NGL. SKK Migas consider that upstream model has higher value of business and the most valuable factor is government control (51%). Company growth (5.6%) is the last one. In the other side, PT Badak NGL consider downstream has higher value of business and most valuable factor is company growth (64.1%). All of that individual judgment is merged in group decision. The most important factor is government control (41.9%). The second one is supply growth (30%). The third one is company growth (15.5%) and the last one is Level of LNG Delivery Guarantee for buyer (11.7%). Based on AHP Calculation the upstream (55.5%) model is considered having higher value of business compared to downstream (44.5%). This final project recommends that PT Badak NGL still use upstream model. But, there are significant gap between government perspective and internal company perspective about company growth. Even PT Badak NGL still use existing business model, government should be more involved to improve growth of PT Badak NGL. Keywords: AHP, LNG, Indonesia LNG, Business Model, Upstream, Downstream 
Scenarion Planning Development of PT. Krakatau Posco Siregar, Lukman; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 8, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract - Steel industry is an industry that has lots of uncertain factors. Some of uncertain factors that give impact to the steel industry are demand volatility, continuous overcapacity, and increased volatility in raw material prices. Rising trade tension and volatile currency movement are further increasing the uncertainty. Krakatau Posco, as one of the major steel producers in Indonesia is playing an important role in the success of the country’s national plan to reduce dependency on the steel imports in the future. Therefore, Krakatau Posco needs a comprehensive strategy formulation process based on the long-run understanding of the future. This final assignment is focused on the developing of a scenario planning as a vision and insight for Krakatau Posco’s decision maker to challenge the current thinking about the long-term strategy agenda of the company. As the result finding, raw material prices and government support become the most two critical and uncertain factors for Krakatau Posco to consider in the long run. These two factors create scenario matrix and form four plausible scenarios, they are Raw Material Chaotic, Steel Survival, The Lobbying, and Steel is King. Implication and options from each scenario are explored to identify alternative strategies. Furthermore, early warning signals are identified to address the movement of current condition toward one scenario or another. As the conclusion of this research, three strategic imperatives are defined as. They are long-term contract of raw material supply, creation of government relationship task force, and expansion of raw material storage capacity. Keywords : Steel Industry, Scenario Planning, Strategic Decision Making, Krakatau Posco
Economic analysis of the underground coal gasification (ucg) in Indonesia Ali Setiawan, Ganjar; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 7, No 3 (2018)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract. Indonesia has been facing dramatic changes in natural gas industry development, which contributes to economic prosperity and reduces reliance on petroleum fuels. Indonesia's gas markets will continually growth to support economy development. Resources availability and government eagerness to utilise more on natural gas will lead Indonesia to become one of the major gas consumers in the future. This is the potential market for natural gas industry and also an opportunity for natural gas Company to accelerate the company's business growth. This study aims to identify conditions that might occur in the natural gas business industry in Indonesia for the next five years using a scenario planning approach. This is very useful to anticipate possible implications that will arise on the natural gas industry, so that PT. Natural Gas (“PNG”) can prepare business solutions for conditions that might occur. This scenario planning process started by exploring the natural gas industry condition in Indonesia using the SWOT analysis (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat). To be more profound, external environment analysis done by Porter five forces and PESTEL  (Politic, Economy, Social, Technology, Environment and Legal) analysis methods, while the internal analysis uses the VRIN (Valuable, Rare, Inimitable, Non substitutable) method. All of these analyses were used to understand how PNG run the businesses, why, where, and when. Based on the results of business analysis and conducting interviews with those who directly involved in the natural gas industry, two key driving forces that greatly affected the natural gas business in Indonesia were found, namely infrastructure and natural gas prices. From here, four scenarios arise about the natural gas industry possible condition in Indonesia. Finally, a strategy recommendation appears that is suitable to be applied for each possible condition. Things that needs to be done is to conduct an external conditions evaluation continuously and identify signals that arise from the external factors and focus on trends that occur compared to signpost in each scenario.Keyword: Scenario planning, business strategy, infrastructure, natural gas price, economic growth.
Scenario planning of investment at pt. Pertamina refinery directorate RM Dony, RM Dony; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 5, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract - Currently energy consumption especially in Indonesia tends to increase from year to year, due to advances in technology and science, almost all aspects of life requires energy, such as for electricity generation, transport, commercial activities, industry and domestic purposes. The energy consumption tends to have a significant increase in the last 10 years, so the company must invest in order to increase production capacity so as to meet the consumer demand. Scenario planning analysis is used to develop strategies for a period of five years. Based on some influencing factors that identified from interview, two key uncertainties can be developed which are 'demand for fuel' and 'investment feasibility’. Both key uncertainties then plotted into four quadrants with the positive and negative extreme conditions to get the four scenarios, namely 'head down and recovered'; 'preparation for the future'; 'remain calm and move slowly' and 'growth ahead'. Of the four scenarios can be formulated three possible strategies to be applied by a company which are major investment, the selected investments and focus on operations. Major investment strategy focused on increasing production capacity in addition also to increased complexity and flexibility of existing facilities or build new refineries. The selected investment strategy is generally more focused on increasing the complexity and flexibility of the existing facilities. Focus on the operational strategy generally focused on operations rather than investment concerned with efficiency and product diversification. Implementation plan is needed to describe in more detail all strategies that already developed to be fitted to the entire scenario that may face by the company in the future.   Keyword: energy, scenario planning, investment, refinery, strategy.
Proposed scenario planning for Indonesia multinational pharmaceutical company in jaminan kesehatan nasional (jkn) era Tri Nurmala, Devy; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 7, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Jaminan Kesehatan Nasional is one of the government's flagship programs to provide health services for all residents in Indonesia since 2014. The multinational pharmaceutical companies become one of the actors in supporting the successful of the program by providing innovative medicines. After the implementation, the government suffered losses in financing. The objective of this study is to propose a better strategy for pharmaceutical companies in Indonesia in support of the government's national health program. The discussion on this issue will be analyzed from an external point of view by using PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environment, Legal) and from an Industry perspective using Porter's 5 Forces Analysis. In further analysis for internal use Resources based view, value chain analysis and SWOT analysis. The research method is qualitative by collecting data through interview and data observation. Scenario planning as a tool for drafting the strategy of multinational pharmaceutical companies within the next five years. In the formulation of a strategy, it is necessary to identify several factors which influence the issues thus lead to the two important uncertainties. The analysis then proceeded to create four scenarios followed by narratives. Furthermore, the implementation plan developed for each scenario. Keywords: scenario planning, multinational pharmaceutical company, innovative drugs, uncertainty, strategy
SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH TO IMPROVE NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY MANAGEMENT IN INDONESIA ELECTRICITY SECTOR Prabandono Mahardi, Johan; Sunitiyoso, Yos
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 6, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract: Indonesia?s new and renewable energy (NRE) electricity sector has a long history with changing regulations and actors while continuously struggling with issues in coordinating stakeholder?s objectives, complex regulation and licensing, electricity tariffs, lack of expertise, and financing. Due to number of involved actors and regulations, it requires systemic approach to observe the impact of one variable to overall objective of the sector. Study is conducted using combination of system thinking methodologies. Compiled from literature studies, non-participant observation, and interviews with respondents representing the main actors, a causal loop diagram was developed. Behavioral patterns or archetypes were identified to produce recommendations in improving the system condition. Finally, a preliminary dynamic modelling was developed using stock and flow diagram showing the variables and their interaction more quantitatively. It provides an initial outlook on the parameters within the system to be considered in the decision making process and policy development.Keywords: System Thinking, New and Renewable Energy, Electricity, Causal Loop Diagram, Archetype
Co-Authors . Syukirman, . Adiwibowo, Pupung Agung Nugroho, Putut Agung Prasojo, Hendris Airlangga, Thomas Ali Setiawan, Ganjar Ambara Purusottama Amy Maulany Setyaman Anantadya Novriady, Anantadya Arifianto, Arifianto Arifin Indarto Arrumaisho, Ummu Sulaim Aryamurti, Adhika Assalam, Awla Fajri Ayu*, Valeria Christie Badriyah, Mila Jamila Khatun Balqis Fajarwanto, Adi Bintang Arigia, Muhammad Citra Andika Putri, Citra Andika Dadi Adriana Devilia Sari Dhanan Sarwo Utomo Dila Fiona Wiharto, Dila Fiona Dimas Fajar Dwi Mutia, Ratih Elsadora Reapina Malthaputri Fadhila Nurfida Hanif fadillah, galih Fikri Hadiansyah Firmansyah, Choiril Fitriastuti, Fransisca Frieta Miasari Mulyanto Fuadah, Puteri Annisa Tsamrotul Grisanto, Raden Gerald Setiawan Gugun Gumati, Anggun Hadiansyah, Fikri Hamonangan Simatupang, Tumpal Hardana, Hendy Eka Hario Wijoseno, Hario Hasibuan, Ongku Hasibuan, Ongku Parmonangan Hendro, Dewo Hermawan, Pri Ilham Guspuji Maulana Imam Luqman Hakim Intan Bayu Gayashanti Jann Hidajat Tjakraatmadja Jati Setiawan Jeremiah Martua, Reginald Khairunnisa, Nadia Kuntoro Mangkusubroto Kurniawan, Tri Edi Kusuma Marcel Saputra Marcellina Amanda Devina Maulana, Muhammad Fadhel Mila Jamila Khatun Badriyah Miranti Sondang Merdyka, Miranti Sondang Murdiyati, Sari Nadivkha Subroto, Riefaldy Nurjihan Khairunisa P.K. Bintoro, Bambang Prabandono Mahardi, Johan Prabowo, Arian Prasetya, Ivan Pratomo, Adam Pri Hermawan Putra Gusrianto Putra Gusrianto Putro, Utomo Sarjono Rahayu, Wulan Asti Ratna Satutikirono Renni Puri Wardianthi Risnando, Angga Rizki Hanafi, Perdana RM Dony, RM Dony Sachi Hongo Samara Natalia Siregar, Raissa Sandjoyo, Kandha Aditya Shimaditya Nuraeni Shimaditya Nuraeni Siregar, Lukman Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono Sudrajad, Oktofa Yudha Suhaimi, Hasnul Surya Jaya, Surya Syem Haikel Syukriadi, Loethano Novi Teguh Supriyanto Tjakraatmadja, Jann Hidajat Togar M Simatupang Tri Nurmala, Devy Utomo Sarjono Putro Utomo, Dhanan Sarwo Wafa, Abi Wicaksono, Setiadi Widya Ayuningtyas, Dwi Wijayanto, Hari Dwi Wurjanto, Haidhar Hibatullah Yananto, Hanto Yoyong Yoyong, Yoyong Yulius Handoko Yuniarto, Ahmad Zakia, Raisa