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Journal : PREDATECS: Public Research Journal of Engineering, Data Technology and Computer Science

Performance Comparison of ARIMA, LSTM and SVM Models for Electric Energy Consumption Analysis Azani, Nilam Wahdiaz; Trisya, Cintia Putri; Sari, Laras Mayangda; Handayani, Hani; Alhamid, Muhammad Rizki Miftha
Public Research Journal of Engineering, Data Technology and Computer Science Vol. 1 No. 2: PREDATECS January 2024
Publisher : Institute of Research and Publication Indonesia (IRPI).

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/predatecs.v1i2.869

Abstract

The changing needs of electrical energy result in the electrical power needed for everyday life being unstable, so planning and predicting how much electrical load is needed so that the electricity generated is always of good quality. So it is necessary to predict the consumption of electrical energy by using forecasting on the machine learning method. Support Vector Machine (SVM), Autoregressive Integrated Motion Average (ARIMA), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) are models that are often used to overcome patterns in predictions. To find out the best models how to predict electricity consumption in the future and how the SVM, LSTM, and ARIMA algorithms perform in predicting electricity consumption. This research will look for the RMSE value and prediction time, then compare it with the best average value. The results of the study show that the ARIMA model is able to predict electricity usage for the next 1 year period, in the evaluation using the RMSE metric, where SVM shows a much lower value than ARIMA and LSTM. In this case, SVM achieved RMSE of 0.020, while ARIMA and LSTM achieved RMSE of 7.659 and 11.4183, respectively. Even though SVM has a lower RMSE, it is still unable to predict electricity usage for the next 1 year with sufficient accuracy.
Co-Authors Abdurahman, Imam Adi Cifriadi, Adi Alhamid, Muhammad Rizki Miftha Ali Firdaus Alisya, Tita Amalia, Siska An Nisa Suryani Andriani, Woro Aniek Sri Handayani Arief Ramadhan Ariyani, Hana Asep Setiawan Asron Ferdian Falaah, Asron Ferdian Aulia Akbar Aulia, Neza Auliani, Sephia Nazwa Azani, Nilam Wahdiaz Barkudin, Barkudin Birawan, I Gusti Kade Brahmantia, Bayu Budiana, Ijang Cahyani, Ririn Dwi Chalid, Mochammad Dadi Rusadi Maspanger Darsono Darsono Destiana Yusuf, Irna Dicky Firmansyah Donna Boedi Maritasari Dwista Anggraeni, Dinda Elin Nuraini Fatinah, Hasna Fatmawati, Rosia Fauziah, Hilma Fiza Fitriani Fitriani FITRIANI, Irma Nur FITRIANI, RACHMA Henry Prastanto, Henry Herdiani, Ida Heri Budiawan Herlina, Riana Hidayat, Atep Hijazi, Muh. Hudzaifah Al Fatih Idang Nurodin Ikhsan Ikhsan Imaniar, Melsa Sagita Indria Kuncoro, Indria Istiani, Herlina Karenina, Puteri Khairani, Luthfia Khumaira, Novita Anis Kinanthi, Alivia Kurniawan, Aceng Kurniawati, Ade Lilis Lismayanti Maemonah, Maemonah Martanti, Nurmala Nurani Maspanger, Dadi Rosadi Maulia Yusup, Hanny Megawati - Meika Syahbana Rusli Miftahul Falah Miftahul Falah Mochammad Imron Awalludin Mohammad Irfan Faturrohman, Mohammad Irfan Muhammad Irfan Faturrohman, Muhammad Irfan Neni Sholihat Norma Arisanti Kinasih, Norma Arisanti Nugraha, Budy Nur Fadhilah Nurani, Ai Yasri Nuryadin, Yadin Obie Farobie Oni Sahroni, Oni Pangripta, Genta R. Romli, Yusuf Rahadatul Aisyi, Syifa Ramadhan, Adihtya Regina , Gelfira Dewi Rohimah, Hanny Ronny Mugara, Ronny Rusdiana Rusdiana Rusyanti, Siti Santi Puspitasari Sari, Laras Mayangda Sari, Nina Pamela Saryomo, Saryomo Sherly Hanifarianty, Sherly Shirley Savetlana, Shirley Sri Mulyani Sri Mulyanti Syaputra, Rangga Syfa, Syfa Tien, Rany Tita Puspita Ningrum, Tita Puspita Titin Suhartini, Titin Trisya, Cintia Putri Yastuti, Meylani Indri Yulita, Feni Yuyun Solihatin Zainal Muttaqin Zalianti, Nova