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All Journal SAINSMAT Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Varian Inferensi Jurnal Darma Agung Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Panrannuangku Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Parameter: Journal of Statistics Journal of Mathematics: Theory and Applications SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research English Language, Linguistics, and Culture International Journal (ELSTIC-IJ) Ininnawa: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Prosiding Seminar Nasional Dies Natalis Universitas Negeri Makassar Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia Jurnal Hasil-Hasil Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat (JHP2M) SMART: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) JAMP
Hardianti Hafid
Universitas Negeri Makassar
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Inferensi

 1 
Application of ARIMA-Decomposition in Forecasting Coffee Exports in Indonesia Nusrang, Muhammad; Fahmuddin, Muhammad; Hafid, Hardianti; Muthahharah, Isma
Inferensi Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v8i1.20899

Abstract

Cocoa is one of Indonesia's primary commodities, playing an important role in the national economy, particularly in the agricultural and export sectors. However, Indonesia's cocoa exports have shown a declining trend in recent years, caused by a reduction in cocoa production. Therefore, more accurate forecasting is needed to support effective decision-making and maintain the competitiveness of this commodity. This research aims to obtain forecasts for cocoa exports in Indonesia using the ARIMA-decomposition method. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency's publication website. The data used is monthly data from 2014-2024 using the ARIMA-decomposition method The cocoa export variable referred to in this research is the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia per month. The research results show that there are two models obtained, namely the ARIMA (1,0,0) and ARIMA (0,0,1) models. The ARIMA model (0,0,1) is the best because it has a smaller RMSE value than the ARIMA model (1,0,0). With results of forecasting cocoa export values using the hybrid ARIMA-decomposition method, namely January 2024 is 90,756,803.63, February 2024 is 94,087,978.29, March 2024 is 100,169,842.39, April 2024 is 90,693,529.69, May 2024 is 93,809,122.09, June 2024 is 100,601,810.69, July 2024 is 99,660,519.59, August 2024 is 105,630,962.89, September 
Application of Bisecting K-Means Method in Grouping Earthquake Data (Case Study: Earthquakes in Indonesia 2023) Rais, Zulkifli; Hafid, Hardianti; Risqi, Shopia
Inferensi Vol 8, No 3 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v8i3.23335

Abstract

Earthquakes are natural disasters that frequently occur in Indonesia, threatening the safety and resilience of its communities. This study aims to analyze the descriptive and clustering results of earthquake data in Indonesia. The data used in this study include various variables such as latitude, longitude, magnitude, and depth as the main features. The method used in this study is Bisecting K-means, and the Davies Bouldin Index test is used to determine the number of clusters. The study results indicate the formation of 3 groups, where cluster 1 falls into the deep earthquake category, cluster 3 falls into the intermediate earthquake category, and cluster 2 falls into the shallow earthquake category, with an average Davies-Bouldin Index value of 0.4758.
Co-Authors Abd. Hafid Abdul Rahman Ahmad Talib Ahmad Yasir Aras Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Arwini Arisandi Awaluddin Muin Ayu Pebriyanti Bungatang DH, Satriani Fahmuddin S., Muhammad Fahmuddin, Muhammad Fahmuddin, Muhammad Hafid, Abd. Haryono, Andri Herdawati, Herdawati Isma Muthahharah Mar'ah, Zakiyah Mar’ah, Zakiyah Meliyana R, S.Pd, M.Si, Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R, Sitti Masyitah Meyliana, Sitti Masyitah Moeh Zainal Khairul Muh. Fahmuddin Muhammad Fahmuddin S Muhammad Isbar Pratama Muhammad Nusrang Muhammad Nusrang Muhammad Yusuf Muhsin Efendi Muthahharah, Isma Muthahharah, Isma Mutiara Nur Agus Salim, Nur Agus Nusrang, Muhammad Nusrang, Muhammad Rahmanda, Lalu Ramzy Rahmat H. S. Rahmat Hidayat Rais, Zulkifli Reski Wahyu Yanti Rezky Amalia Hamka Rezky, Akhmad Rezky Ramadhana T Risqi, Shopia Rosmalah Rosmalah Rosmalah Rosmalah, Rosmalah Ruliana Rustam, Sitti Nail Satriani DH Selvi Annisa Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sitti Nailah Rustam Sudarmin Yati Samsyuddin Zakiyah Mar'ah Zakiyah Mar’ah Zulkifli Rais