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Christian, Yefta
Universitas Internasional Batam
Aerospace Engineering Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Journal of Information Systems and Technology Research

 1 
Designing a Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Weather Forecasting in Batam City Christian, Yefta; Jupiter Agustio Liu Siaw Ping
Journal of Information Systems and Technology Research Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): January 2026
Publisher : Ali Institute or Research and Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55537/jistr.v5i1.1504

Abstract

Accurate weather forecasting in tropical regions such as Batam City is challenging due to high climate variability and frequent data gaps caused by unstable atmospheric conditions. This study aims to develop a reliable daily average temperature forecasting system using a hybrid approach that combines the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The main novelty of this research lies in the residual hybridization method, where SARIMA is used to capture linear seasonal patterns and LSTM is applied to model the non-linear residual components, as well as the use of a multi-source data integration strategy to fill missing data. Historical temperature data from BMKG and other publicly available meteorological sources were merged to produce a continuous dataset covering the period from 2015 to 2021. The study evaluated several model architectures, including standalone statistical models, standalone machine learning models, and hybrid models, to identify the most effective approach. The experimental results show that the SARIMA–LSTM hybrid model outperformed the other models, achieving a high prediction accuracy with an R² value of 0.92 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.73°C. These findings demonstrate that integrating linear and non-linear models can significantly improve temperature forecasting performance and provide a practical solution for weather monitoring in tropical environments
Co-Authors Agus Yanto Alvin Matthew Pratama Amir Amir Amir Amir Andik Yulianto Arbiwijaya Kwek Brohns Jaffrey Calvin Wijaya Capricornness, Vincent Cen, Andrew Chris Tan Chris Tan Cindy Juliandry Claudia Theophilia Denissa Denissa Denny Alfath Dewi A. Chandra Edi Yanto Elvinlee Eric Eric Eric Eric Pranata Eric, Eric Erline, Meiliverani Estrada, Yuki Fauzi, Muhammad Al Felix Filbert Ferdinand William Fiona Vinelia Fionna Quinn Frenda Ang Germent Basri Gracella Tandiono Gumolung, Randy Gumolung, Randy Heskyel Hannuella, Albert Ricardo Hansvirgo Hansvirgo Hansvirgo Hansvirgo, Hansvirgo Hendi Sama Hengky Hengky Heri Heri Herman Herman Herman Herman Herman Huang, Suryani Jacky Jacky Janata, Adit Afandi Jeny Jeny Jerry Jerry Jerry, Jerry Jeslyn Teo Jesselyn Jesselyn Jevin Leon Jimmy Jimmy Joana Stefhanie Saliama Jonathan Jonathan Julia Christini Jupiter Agustio Liu Siaw Ping Katherine Oktaviani Yap Rui Qi Katherine Oktaviani Yap Rui Qi Kelvin Aryesryo Kelvin Kelvin Kelvin Kelvin Kevin Kevin Kurnia, Ahmad Dhani Kurt Juriant Tan Lenny Julyanti Lusiana Lusiana Lyawati, Mercy Marcellino Marcellino Marvin Christian Meiliverani Erline Michael Michael Michelle Febri Soegianto Moh Fariq Aziz Muhammad Jufri Muhammad Yusuf Zhafran Mungkap Mangapul Siahaan Musfiza, Efelito Hayat Nanda Silvia Sovitasari Nicholas Jeonanto Nicky adi putra Nico Dwi Putra Olwin Olwin Pratama, Sendi Ari Putra Agung Winata Putra Agung Winata Raden Mohamad Herdian Bhakti Rara Tri Kencana Ricardo Hannuella, Albert Ricky Rickena Exendy Ricky Ricky Ridho Kurnia Rizki Alamsyah Robin Robin Ronny Triputra Ronny Triputra. AM Sama, Hendi Sandy Tio Sani Kurnia Santo Tjiam Sonia, Monica Stevantinus Stevantinus Steven Steven Suryani Huang Suwarno Suwarno Liang Suwarno Suwarno Tina Rani Tony Jack Tan Ding Tony Wibowo, Tony Utari Afnesia Utomo, Kevin Saputra Valencia Valencia Vani Andini Veithzal Rivai Zainal Vendryan Vendryan Vigho raziansyah Vincent Gonawan Vincent Wijaya Vincent Wijaya Vira Vira Vivy Valentine Wibowo, Tony Wijaya, Vincent Winardo, Jesen Wiwik Handayani Yanto Yanto Yoputra, Keaton Yulianto, Andik Yusuf Yusuf Yusuf