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Journal : Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence

Short-Term Forecasting of Electricity Consumption Revenue on Java-Bali Electricity System using Jordan Recurrent Neural Network Tesa Eranti Putri; Aji Akbar Firdaus; Wilda Imama Sabilla
Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence Vol. 4 No. 2 (2018): October
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1369.973 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/jisebi.4.2.96-105

Abstract

Depending on the day and time, electricity consumption tends to fluctuate and directly affects the amount of gained revenue for the company. To anticipate future economic change and to avoid losses in calculating the company’s revenue, it is essential to forecast electricity consumption revenue as accurate as possible. In this paper, Jordan Recurrent Neural Network (JRNN) was used to do short term forecasting of the electricity consumption revenue from Java-Bali 500 kVA electricity system. Seven JRNN models were trained using electricity consumption revenue between January-March 2012 to predict the revenue of the first week of April 2012. As performance comparators, seven traditional feed forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were also constructed. The forecasting results were as expected for both models, where both producing steady repeating pattern for weekdays, but failed quite poorly to predict the weekends’ revenue. This suggests that in Indonesia, weekends’ electricity consumption revenue has different characteristics than weekdays. Evaluation of the prediction result was carried out using Sum of Square Error (SSE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The evaluation showed that JRNN produced smaller SSE and MSE values than traditional feed forward ANN, thus JRNN could predict the electricity consumption revenue of Java-Bali electricity system more accurately.
Co-Authors Achmad Luki Satriawan Adi Soeprijanto Agustin, Eva Inaiyah Alim Prasaja Aly, Muhammad Nilzam Anang Budikarso Anang Tjahjono, Anang Andria Kusuma, Vicky Arof, Hamzah Asy'ari, Vaizal Azmita, Mimi Bambang Suharto Bambang Suharto Belgis, Belgis Daud, Muhamad Zalani Dewanto, Muhammad Ridho Dimas Fajar U.P. Dimas Fajar Uman Putra Dimas Okky Anggriawan Eka Prasetyono, Eka Endro Wahjono Farid, Mifta Nur Firillia Filliana Gagas Gayuh Aji, Gagas Gayuh Ginting, Ina Veronica Hadi Suyono Hadi Suyono Hamzah Arof Happy Aprillia Hidayatul Nurohmah Indhana Sudiharto Jenrychk Marcelino Tandi Karrang Kadek Juni Setiawati Kharis Sugiarto Khuria Kirana, Angkita Wasito Kristanto, Damar Kristanto, Damar Kurnia Wijaya Kusuma Li Wang Machrus Ali Mahmud Iwan Solihin Maurisia Putri Permatasari Mifta Nur Farid Mimi Azmita Muhaimin Muhaimin Muhammad Agung Nursyeha Muhammad Aziz Muslim Muhammad Aziz Muslim Muhammad Nizhom Ramadhani Muhammad Ruswandi Djalal Nabila Salvaningtyas Nasa Zata Dina Novian Patria Uman Putra Novian Uman Putra Nuruddin Nuruddin Nyoman Juniarta, Nyoman Ontoseno Penangsang Prasaja, Alim Priyanto, Yun Tonce Kusuma Putra, Dimas Fajar Uman Putra, Wahyu Haryanto Putri, Rahmah Fadiyah Rachman Sinatriya Marjianto Rafdi Syah, Muhammad Abby Rahayu, Ragil Puji Rahmat Yuliawan Rajendran, Parvathy Risty Jayanti Yuniar Sena Sukmananda Suprapto Setiawati, Kadek Juni Sinulingga, Rizky Amalia Sisca Dina Nur Nahdliyah Sri Endah Kinasih Sri Endah Nurhidayati Sugiarto, Kharis Suharno, Novianto Edi Suprapto, Sena Sukmananda Susanto, Fajar Annas Teguh Aryo Nugroho Teguh Herlambang Tesa Eranti Putri Trimulya, Hanif Uman Putra, Novian Patria Vicky Andria Kusuma Vicky Andria Kusuma Wilda Imama Sabilla Winarno Winarno Winarno, Winarno Yanuar Mahfudz Safarudin Yuli Prasetyo Yunardi, Riky Tri